There aren’t too many general managers in the NHL who have pulled off what Jim Nill has accomplished with the Dallas Stars. He has taken a core of aging veterans on what have now become albatross contracts, kept those players relevant, all while recasting the team with a brand new set of star players filling the most dominant roles.
Sure, there have been some hiccups. Veterans brought in, only to fail. High end draft choices who never met expectations. There has also been some luck (although sometimes you make your own luck): Roope Hintz was a good start, but then Miro/Jake/Robo happened. That 2021 draft class is looking pretty good as well.
The 2022-23 season showed an organization hitting on all cylinders. At the top, the Dallas Stars reached the conference finals and did so while spending the entire season playing salary cap games and bringing on serviceable but not flashy forwards at the trade deadline. Dallas didn’t mortgage the future to make a run—they didn’t have to.
In the AHL, the Texas Stars won their division and took a Milwaukee Admirals team loaded with Nashville Predators to a final game before losing. All this in spite of an undrafted rookie in the crease and the loss of their best defender to Dallas for his own playoff run. The ECHL Idaho Steelheads put together a historic regular season, setting a league record for points while icing multiple Stars prospects to supplement their roster. They lost 4-0 in the Kelly Cup finals, but that doesn’t diminish what the team accomplished this year.
With the season over for the Stars organization, now is the time to start evaluating what needs to be done to make next year even better. In order to move forward, the organization needs to take stock of where it is.
Goaltenders
In 2023, Jake Oettinger solidified his position as a true number one netminder. He played in 81 total games, including all 19 playoff games. His playoff numbers were down pretty significantly, which begs the question whether his workload was greater than it needed to be. Scott Wedgewood was proficient in his 20+ games, but when he was injured, the team was forced to sign AHL rookie Matt Murray to an NHL deal just to have a qualified backup.
In addition to Murray, the Stars have Adam Scheel and Remi Poirier under team control. All had good seasons, and Murray even made it into three NHL games, but unless something drastic happens over the summer, none of the three is likely to see quality NHL time next season. Poirier is 21 and signed through 2025, but if Murray and Scheel sign qualifying offers, there is an organizational logjam of AHL talent in net and a deficit of trusted NHL game ready goalies.
That leaves two questions. First, does Dallas use some of their $7 million in cap space and sign another veteran backup, one that can be a third netminder in the AHL? The team could even upgrade their backup through free agency and have Wedgewood handle AHL duties.
Second, how does Scheel fit into the team’s plans? Without changes, there isn’t a roster spot available east of Boise—but will the 24 year old who dominated play in the ECHL last season be willing to spend another year without getting AHL ice time?
An organization can never have too much goaltender depth, but everybody needs to be able to get their time in the crease.
Defenders
On the surface, how Dallas handles the blue line is a no-brainer. The team has seven signed defenders, with seven open slots.
Some things are obvious: Miro Heiskanen should eat up major minutes while running the first power play and anchoring the penalty kill. Slightly below that, Thomas Harley’s playoff run showed a defender ready to either partner with Heiskanen or hold his own as a vital part of a second pairing.
Further down, Esa Lindell is going to be the first choice defensive defender—partnering with either Jani Hakanpaa or perhaps Nils Lundqvist. Hakanpaa is spending the off-season rehabilitating from back surgery, creating some question marks related to his return. Likewise, Lundqvist spent the end of the season and the playoffs in hockey purgatory, but nothing has changed about his pedigree (or the cost of obtaining him). One way or another, Lundqvist needs to be in the lineup getting unsheltered minutes.
There’s been endless conversation about Ryan Suter. Should his contract be bought out? I’d say yes but I can see the case for no. He’d be a decent third pair defender, but it’s an unlikely role for him, given a variety of reasons from personal to coaching.
That leaves—at least from the current roster—two players: Joel Hanley and Colin Miller. Hanley is a perfect seventh defender: a guy who can sit for weeks, but when he plays, he gives you a solidly predictable performance. Not much of a contribution in the offensive zone, but not giving up much on defense. Hanley has pushed his way into the playoff lineup several times over the years and has been trusted with important minutes. That could easily get him a contract bigger than Dallas is willing to take on.
On the other hand, Miller was a mainstay during the regular season, but found his ice time drastically reduced during the playoffs. He’s under contract for one more year, but it’s hard to reconcile keeping a roster spot for a veteran player who isn’t trusted with playoff minutes.
Jim Nill’s job here isn’t easy. Some defensive vulnerabilities were exposed during the Stars playoff run and if the team is going to improve, those need to be addressed. Bringing Harley up from Texas for the end of the season and subsequent post season showed that the team can improve internally. Throw in an improved Lundqvist with a superstar Heiskanen and a limited but useful Lindell and the team has the start of a solid group.
What then to do with Suter, Hakanpaa, Miller and the seventh defender slot? It isn’t out of the question that any of the players could be off the roster in October. Hakanpaa, unless there are complications from surgery, is most likely to be back. But unknowns about his recovery could lead Nill to stockpile defenders and make him less likely to move on from Suter and Miller. Buyouts and/or trades are the simple answers, but just losing Hanley to free agency and rolling with the seven existing players and their contracts probably doesn’t move the needle very far with a defensive group that has well documented flaws.
There is also a question of depth. Last year, the Texas Stars had a reasonably senior defensive core. From that group, Harley has (permanently) graduated. Will Butcher, the puck mover brought in on the chance that Miller didn’t last the season, had a solid season in the AHL and will be looking for a return to the NHL – likely with another team. Alex Petrovic signed for two years earlier this month on a two way deal, but unless Hakanpaa isn’t ready, his big body is destined to stay in Cedar Park where he can wear an “A” and mentor/protect younger players.
Beyond that, Texas has three mid-20s UFAs who were instrumental in the Stars winning the AHL Central division. Ryan Shea led the AHL in +/-, not the greatest stat around, but over an extended period it does indicate solid on-ice contributions. Shea isn’t Thomas Harley, but he’s a decent puck mover who can defend. He’s ready for a 6/7 defender NHL look.
Ben Gleason is in a similar spot, but with a different skill set. Gleason is flashy with the stick, can skate with the puck and can run a power play. He has also tightened up his defensive game. Think John Klingberg, but driving a pickup truck. Jared Rosburg spent most of the season injured, but he plays a big game with some skill. The injury set back his development, leaving him as the most likely of this group to return to Texas (although if Gleason does return, he’ll should break every offensive record in the books for a Texas defender).
Michael Karow is back on a two year AHL deal and he should now see regular ice time. Dawson Barteaux spent most of the season with Idaho, but showed well in the playoffs for Texas when called on. He’s an RFA, but will likely be qualified, spending the season back with Texas. Oskari Laaksonen, the remaining RFA, signed a two year deal with Lulea of the SHL in May, putting him solidly on the Reserve List.
The returning defenders for Texas will be tasked with integrating a host of prospects: Artem Grushnikov, Christian Kyrou and Gavin White are a given along with the possibility of Lian Bischel. Texas could even look to re-sign ECHL Defender of the Year, Owen Headrick. In any event, the Texas blue line will be less experienced than in the past. The pedigree is there with the incoming prospects, but it’s likely to be missing depth and there will be pressure on the newcomers to produce while they develop.
Unless Jim Nill brings in some new players or re-signs some pending UFAs, the organizational depth in defenders is going to take a hit. Dallas went without an injury callup on the blue line for the entire 2022-2023 season, but the team was positioned to make a callup without a major degradation of talent. It just wasn’t needed. The same is unlikely to be true this coming season.
Forwards
Going into next season, Dallas has eight forwards/centers who were regular contributors under contract. Add RFA Ty Dellandrea, and the team has three open slots, plus up to two additional slots for healthy scratches. For the first time in a while, most of the open positions match what is available throughout the organization: either AHL veterans or prospects.
There is little question where the following players will fall: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Wyatt Johnston are at minimum top nine talents. Mason Marchment is coming off a disappointing first year as a Star, but there is little doubt that he’ll slot into the top nine as well. Dellandrea and Radek Faksa could play up, but more likely will slot in on the fourth line.
Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov both had their moments as trade deadline acquisitions. Dadonov was the more consistant of the two, while Domi showed what he is capable of during the playoffs. If the deal is right, either could find themselves on Jim Nill’s shortlist for re-signing and either would slot into the top nine. Over the last part of the season, the team saw how they could fit moving forward, but the money is going to need to make sense for either to stick. And the choice is likely only one of the two or neither.
Beyond the top nine, the Colorado Avalanche saw enough in Fredrik Olofsson to pull off a trade for his signing rights and subsequently signed him to a one year deal. Dallas signed the other Fredrik (Karlstrom) who showed promise until an injury ended his season. No more Freddy x2, but Karlstrom could easily start the season in the NHL.
Joel Kiviranta is a UFA and an option. He’s part of the Finnish Mafia, but contractually he may not offer significantly more than Marian Studenic or Nick Caamano as a puck hounding fourth liner on a league minimum deal.
The organization has two other choices to make, one short term and one longer term. Short term, the team has invested heavily in the development of Riley Tufte and Rhett Gardner, both of whom are now UFAs. Either could find themselves with a part-time role and/or fourth liner at minimum cost or as an early call-up option. Both showed an improved scoring touch with Texas this season as part of the Texas fourth line – either with Olofsson or Caamano. If Dallas doesn’t re-sign, either could get an NHL opportunity with a different team.
Once training camp hits, prospects will take center stage, setting up the second big decision. Mavrik Bourque should get an extended look to make the team. Likewise Logan Stankoven or even Matej Blumel could push their way onto the NHL roster. This group will be looking for skill slots up the lineup, but an NHL spot is going to need to be earned. Should make for an interesting month from Traverse City through the pre-season.
Beyond that, there doesn’t appear to be much to consider. At the NHL level, Luke Glendening’s game noticeably slipped this season and he should not be re-signed. At the AHL level, Curtis McKenzie is signed as captain. Riley Barber and Tanner Kero were both scoring leaders and are now UFAs. I’d guess that one of the two will be back, and given that Barber is the better player and seems to love it in Cedar Park, he’s the obvious first choice. Scott Reedy (picked up in the Jacob Peterson trade) has NHL experience, but did little that would make him stand out for promotion. He’s probably in the same boat as Riley Damiani; they’ll both get a qualifying offer but are slated for the AHL.
Oskar Back showed improvement this year and is at the stage where he may get a handful of NHL games for a look—the proverbial cup of tea. Antonio Stranges should be a full time player with Texas with an opportunity to see if his offensive talents can continue up the growth curve. Several draft picks should make their professional debuts and the Stars will undoubtedly find some undrafted players as ATOs.
In any event, like last season, Texas should be able to put the puck in the net. But the team will be doing it with some big question marks, especially on defense.
A Few Last Thoughts
In a year where the free agency class is awful, the Stars organization finds itself in a position where they shouldn’t have to utilize the market unless the price is right. Does the team really need to go shopping to replace forwards Luke Glendening or Joel Kiviranta? With the current full roster on defense, you could easily argue that the Stars could improve through subtraction.
Over the last few years, the organization has made a significant investment in player development with a focus on bringing in positional coaches to support Neil Graham and the Texas Stars. But, outside of top draft choices, Jim Nill has depended on bringing in free agents for leadership, even in minor roles.
The question is: why invest in prospect development if the organization isn’t going to make use of the players that it develops? Or is that organization there merely to push through the Thomas Harleys and Ty Dellandreas of the world?
Two seasons ago, Jacob Peterson played significant minutes. To a lesser degree, Fredrik Olofsson did the same this year. Both are now gone, and both are more likely to see NHL minutes with their new clubs than they would have with the Stars. If the team is investing in their younger players, shouldn’t they reap any of the rewards?
Perhaps, more importantly, the team has an aging core on expensive deals and a new core on contracts that will increase in cost as the player’s value to the team is better reflected in their cap hit. The Stars are going to need guys who are at or near the NHL minimum to maintain any kind of balance between lines. Fans have already seen what happens with a top heavy lineup as Benn and Seguin have aged. The last handful of Stanley Cup champions have used lineups that combine highly paid stars with productive, but cheap options at the bottom of the lineup. To continue to be competitive with the league’s best, the Stars are going to need to find a way to do the same.
It’s going to be a busy off-season for Jim Nill. The Stars are one of a handful of teams that will be in the pre-season Stanley Cup conversation. Many of the decisions that Nill needs to make over the next few months will be important for more than just the coming year, and a number of them may push him outside of his comfort zone.
Should the team ride Jake Oettinger until he breaks? Will aging veterans follow Jamie Benn’s team first attitude, accepting a lesser role in support of overall success? Do the Stars need to jump into a weak UFA pool to supplement the bottom half of the lineup, or do they have faith in their prospect development program?
Personally, I think that Dallas needs to upgrade their backup netminder. They need to buy out Suter, trade Miller, and give Shea and Gleason a chance to earn the seventh defender spot. They need to avoid major forward upgrades (sign Domi, or better yet Dadonov, to a reasonable shortish deal), give some mid-twenties prospects a real look and save up some Cap space (and prepare for upcoming performance bonus overages) If, but mid-March and the trade deadline, its apparent that there are holes anywhere in the lineup that need to be filled, there’s plenty of space to bring in a quality rental.
Anyway, that should be enough for one summer. Come October, we’ll revisit this to see what the organization accomplished.