Date of Birth: Feb. 5, 2005
Age: 18
Height: 5’10
Weight: 167lbs
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Team: Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
Overview
Ranked #15 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #19 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #19 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #24 by FLOHOCKEY/CHRIS PETERS
Ranked #16 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #6 by THE HOCKEY NEWS
Ranked #18 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #25 by MCKEEN’S HOCKEY
Ranked #35 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #15 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #25 by SPORTSNET
Ranked #10 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #8 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #9 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #12 by SMAHT SCOUTING
There’s no way Andrew Cristall is gonna be available at #61, so this is kind of for-fun. After all, there was no way Alex DeBrincat or Logan Stankoven should have fallen so far. Players fall in the draft all the time; sometimes it’s easy to see why and sometimes it’s not.
There’s no reason why Cristall should be available in the second round. His point-per-game pace for a WHL draft-eligible player is above Seth Jarvis and Leon Draisaitl. In other words, he’s this year’s Jason Robertson.
Need-O-Meter
You’ve heard it all before.
Small forward. Low compete level. Not fast enough for his size. Doesn’t have big enough biceps. Will score in the regular season but not the playoffs. Doesn’t fight in the corners. Will get injured when a big defender does something illegal that the ref won’t call.
Blah. Blah. Blah.
We’ll get to that later but for now, let’s focus on his talent. Cristall is an elite scoring winger. All the hard skills are there to be an impact player. He was one goal shy of scoring 40 in just 54 games (in other words, on pace to score more than Robertson did his draft year). Like all great shooters, his timing and quick release allow him to manipulate netminders into guessing when they should be anticipating. He’s not a powerful shooter so much as a deft one; relying more on play processing and positioning rather than raw mechanics i.e. being able to fire a slapshot 100mph or snapping the puck like Tarasenko. Cristall is a more modern shooter in that way.
However, his shot is just one part of his offense. His playmaking is even more dangerous. With elite vision, he’s able to turn tape into space. He has the creativity to make Spezza-level plays, but he also knows when to cut down on those extra passes. Like the perfect porridge, his passing ability is never too hot or too cold. Part of what enables all that horsepower is his puck protection. His edges are one way to protect the puck, but he has a small-area game too that adds layers to a profile that might look like “points merchant” on the surface but is anything but.
He’s everything Dallas could use at left wing; a position looking increasingly grim with only Jamie Benn and Mason Marchment on depth. So why are we talking about him in the second round? Are the scouting soundbites true?
BPA-O-Meter
If you’re a Stars fan, it’s easy to take for granted any skating concerns because you can always say “yea and Robertson’s skating sucked.” But even as Robertson has hit Hart level hockey, it’s not always rainbows and gumdrop smiles: his playoff struggles have felt a lot like skating struggles, even if the Vegas series saw a player who might have officially broken through. Still, skating can matter for players who need time and space to score. It has mattered for Alexis Lafreniere and Jesperi Kotkaniemi, just to name a few.
While we’re at it, I’ll put myself on blast and say that I thought Arthur Kaliyev and Bobby Brink would be able to play past their skating. The jury’s still out, on Brink more than Kaliyev, but it’s a reasonable concern.
For sure, Cristall’s skating will be an issue not because he’s a bad skater, but because he’s relatively one-note one right now. He can scoot, and move side to side, but without straight line speed he’ll find it harder to create on the rush and forced along the exterior at the NHL level.
I do think the issues with his “compete” levels are relevant, although not for the reasons usually listed. Cristall puts in the work on the forecheck but he has a tendency to miscalculate his routes, going interior when he should be going exterior, and vice versa. He’s never gonna be Mark Stone along the wall, but I think the effort’s there. Beyond that, I think his version of effort is there — which is to say, just because he isn’t crashing his body into defenders doesn’t mean doesn’t mean he’s not making an effort to make creative or optimal reads. It’s never sat well with me the way scouts confused hustle with effort. Cristall will never be a Selke candidate, but it won’t be for lack of effort.
Good pick — Bad Pick?
Great pick.
Dallas needs left wingers, and Cristall might be one of the best left wingers in the entire 2023 draft. Zach Benson will go in the top 10 of this draft, and possibly top five as arguably its most complete forward. Here’s how Cristall stacks up to him:
Cristall is gonna make a lot of teams look silly. Could he make Dallas look brilliant? Depends on how many times decide to look silly before pick #61 is on the clock.