We need to have a conversation about Nils Lundkvist.
So much is going right I almost want to avoid the subject. As I sit down to write, the Dallas Stars sit one points behind Colorado in the Central with a game in hand and are comfortably among the league’s better teams. There have been stumbles – against the aforementioned Avalanche, and you would not believe how happy I am to be done with Calgary for a while – but this is a good team doing good work. Veterans are rebounding, kids are producing, prospects are making noise, and we even spent time on Stargazing talking about good Ryan Suter plays.
Why harsh the vibe by bringing up Lundkvist?
Because he matters to this team. A lot. Lundkvist is a remarkable pivot upon which the Stars’ fortunes rest. Not in the same way they rest on Miro Heiskanen, but his impact is not incredibly far off. This is true right now; if Lundkvist swings one direction, the Stars have three functional puck-movers on their backline and critical depth on the power play for a paltry $925,000. It is doubly true in the future; if he goes the other way, the capped-out Stars have a major problem to solve and precious few resources available with which to solve it.
Uncomfortable choices ahoy!
Without Lundkvist, Dallas’ defensive corps consists of a legend in Miro Heiskanen, the promise of Thomas Harley, the limited Esa Lindell, whatever the heck is left in the tank of Jani Hakanpaa and Ryan Suter, and the same eleven-ish minutes Joel Hanley always plays. That’s it, that’s all, thanks for playing.
Think about the rumor de-jure: Chris Tanev. Ignore for a moment whether or not the Flames would be willing to deal; this is more about the structure of the thing. As a contending team, any move they make to shore up the roster is going to be for a talented player, not a prospect grab or a roll-of-the-dice. The closest thing Dallas had to an NHL-ready player in Cedar Park was Gavin Bayreuther, now dealing with a long-term injury. Even the moonshot option of Lian Bischel being ready in his first North American season (spoiler: as well as he was playing, he wasn’t ready) is now off the table due to his recent return to Europe. This means the fix has to be external, and that means dollars. Explain to me how a team with $450k in cap space and a glaring need trades for an in-demand player making $4.5 million a year. I will give you a hint: it rhymes with Ravermick Morque.
Oh boy does Lundkvist kind of need to work out.
The results are all over the place. Seven points (all assists) puts Lundkvist ahead of all Dallas defenders save Miro, but only one of those points came with the man advantage. Not what you want to see from a guy tasked with PP2 duty and averaging 1:30 with the extra man. At even strength, Lundkvist is underwater in terms of goals scored (38 for, 36 against) but doing just fine by several important underlying metrics. According to our friends at Natural Stat Trick, the Stars should expect 54% of goals scored, 55% of scoring chances, and 55% of high-danger scoring chances to go their way with Lundkvist on the ice. More good than bad. A walked-under-a-ladder PDO of 0.991 further suggests the counting stats could be due for an uptick.
But things are not that simple.
The coaches clearly do not trust Lundkvist (nor Harley if publicly available statistics are any measure). Lundkvist averages 14:36 minutes a night, ahead of only Hanley (11:30), and has amassed a small but glaring library of defensive miscues. Coaches are visceral beings, and while it might not be strictly logical, watch the gaffe against Calgary and tell me if you’d play the kid in a one-goal third period.
What if, the nay-sayers might say, all of the pleasant underlying stuff is a product of sheltered usage?
Which brings us back to where we started: an uncomfortable conversation about Nils Lundkvist. He’s a kid the coaches should probably play more but won’t on a team that could desperately use the help in a season going well but with plenty of room to get either better or worse. To flip Joe Versus the Volcano, Lundkvist can do the job, but can he get the job? Trust is painful, and Lundkvist does make it harder from time to time, but what other choice do the Stars have?