The Stars made some noise on July 1st, signing a trio of forwards in Sam Steel, Craig Smith, and, most importantly, Matt Duchene. All were for only one year, coming at 1M, 825, and 3M respectively, which is very good value for each player.
I considered doing a loose breakdown of the signings in a free agency review, but my colleague David Castillo already did that this morning. I highly recommend you give his substack a read (and subscribe), because he does a tremendous job breaking down each addition and how it will help Dallas.
In short, Dallas didn’t just settle for low impact, borderline lineup veterans like they have in the past. All three players can make a solid contribution to Dallas, and, as Sean Shapiro wrote today, each will fit nicely into Pete DeBoer’s offensive-focused system, one in which there is no real “checking line.”
Even with the additions, there’s still a chance that either Logan Stankoven or Mavrik Bourque make the opening night roster, if they blow the staff away at training camp and in the preseason. All in all, Dallas is poised to have quality, and deep, forward group heading into next season.
Great. So what?
There’s a reason that many fans are still sour, or at least disappointed, with the Stars’ offseason so far, and that’s because the front office has still failed to address the team’s biggest weakness from last season: the team’s blueline.
Joel Hanley was re-signed for two years while Colin Miller was traded away; they even brought back former Star Gavin Bayreuther on a one-year, one way deal.
Otherwise, nothing. No major free agency signings. No trades bringing in a defenseman.
Nada.
Not to mention that Ryan Suter was not bought out, an option many Stars fans and media advocated for as “addition by subtraction”. The mere suggestion, apparently, “baffled” general manager Jim Nill.
So Dallas essentially just swapped out Miller for Bayreuther, who I personally think is just there for injury insurance and is likely to get waived during camp – at best he’s the 8th defenseman on a full roster. That means our opening night lineup is very similar to the one we saw last season:
Thomas Harley – Miro Heiskanen
Esa Lindell – Jani Hakanpää
Ryan Suter – Nils Lundkvist
Joel Hanley
Disclaimer: the above pairings are based on the common ones from last regular season, namely Lindell-Hakanpää and Suter-Lundkvist. I personally think Harley gets paired with Hakanpää (yikes) and either Lindell or Suter is paired with Heiskanen, the other with Lundkvist. But the specific pairings don’t matter (much) for our discussion today. What’s important to focus on is those six players themselves as a group.
And, well, that blueline doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, does it? Esa Lindell had a down year, and was absolutely cratered with Hakanpää in the playoffs. Suter was bad, hence all the buyout talk. And Lundkvist was, as Stars fans love to put it, eating nachos starting in March, healthy scratched in all 19 playoff games.
On a more positive front, Hanley had a strong postseason, but a seventh defenseman role is where he fits best long-term, so don’t expect a strong impact. Harley, meanwhile, was the Stars’ second best defenseman in the postseason and should be a Top 4 staple all season long… assuming, of course he doesn’t regress across an entire NHL season. Remember: the most NHL games he’s played in a single season, regular or playoffs, was 34 in 2021-22.
That means the only “sure thing” on the roster is Miro Heiskanen, who is a unicorn and (barring injury) will always be fantastic. But even then, there’s cause for concern – with the subtraction of Miller, not Suter, Heiskanen will be forced to play on his off-side again. Coaching staffs love to say he is so good that they don’t have a problem with it, but it still holds back his full potential. And I’d argue that when the rest of your blueline is as weak as it is, you need your all-world player to be at his best, not forced to compensate for his peers like he did in the playoffs. Which, by the way, is likely a reason why he was great, but maybe not elite this postseason, unlike his 2020 bubble run.
Now, there is still hope for the Stars blueline. A pretty obvious solution is still on the table: make a trade. Remember, the Stars didn’t trade for Lundkvist until late September last year, and it’s day three of free agency. Problem is, with their spending spree on the aforementioned three forwards, not to mention re-signing Evgenii Dadanov, the Stars are tight to the cap ceiling. Per CapFriendly, they only have $582,171 remaining, and RFA Ty Dellandrea still needs a new contract, even if it’ll only fall in the 1-2M range.
So something has to give. If I had to wager, Dallas is probably looking at offloading Radek Faksa’s contract, which contains a 5-team NTC. Mason Marchment and his 10-team NTC are also an option, although I highly doubt Nill pulls the plug on that after just one season.
Yet even if they do acquire some space through a trade (which, given the continued flat cap, is being increasingly harder to do), does that necessarily mean it’ll be a part of a swing for a defenseman? And if so, who? Erik Karlsson will likely be too expensive, either in cap hit or the assets required to get the San Jose Sharks to retain more of it. Noah Hanifin, if available, will likely be dealt only with a long term extension in place, which 1) I’m not sure Dallas will want to give and 2) might make the price greater than what Dallas would be willing to pay.
There’s other, less expensive options of course, but how much would they really move the needle? This blueline needs a jolt, a bonafide Top 4 addition to the lineup, but I’m finding that increasingly unlikely. Call me a pessimist, but when your GM makes a habit out of saying “I like where our team is at” and how he feels players like Suter are great for the team, not liabilities, it’s hard not to think the defensemen we have now are the ones the team is sticking with.
If that’s the case, Dallas is making a huge gamble, or, perhaps more accurately, a series of smaller ones. They seem to be banking on Lundkvist’s continued growth, becoming a trusted lineup fixture, not a late season permanent scratch in favor of a career 7th defenseman. They also probably think that Lindell will bounce back too; that Harley will be just as good if not better across a whole season; that Suter will (in their minds) continue to be a strong defenseman who can play heavy minutes; and that Heiskanen can continue to log ungodly minutes while skating on one foot balancing a tower of glass cups on his right elbow because he’s “just that good.”
Now, to their credit, if at least two of the first three things happen, the Stars are in decent shape, great shape even if all three do (I’m not banking on Suter doing anything but get worse, and Miro being over-relied on just is what it is). But that’s a lot of if’s. It’s the type of gamble you make it if you’re exiting a rebuild and hoping things break out right and you make the playoffs. Or if you’re a Wild Card team hoping this will be your year to make a deep, unexpected run.
But when you’re supposed to be a top team in the West, coming off a Conference Final where you got embarassed multiple times by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion? A team that has watched its division rivals make some aggressive moves this offseason, and yet is still looking to set themselves apart and win it all?
Sorry, but when it comes to fixing your team’s biggest weakness, I think an apparent strategy of “let’s just hope things turn out different this year” is just too big of a risk to take.