Before the NHL Trade Deadline week even began, the Dallas Stars made headlines when they acquired Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames. It fixed the biggest hole on a Stanley Cup Contender, and the Stars gave up relatively little in return — a 2nd round pick, one of their (arguably) lower end defensive prospects, and maybe a 3rd, plus a 4th for extra salary cap retention.
That 4th rounder is what made things so interesting, because it seemed to indicate that Dallas wasn’t done making trades. After all, if you don’t strictly need the extra salary retention to leave your roster as is, you’re basically just giving away a pick for nothing. And yet, as deadline day approached, you couldn’t help but wonder if the Stars were going to “stand pat” after all.
Well they did, and they did so while the rest of the Western Conference’s top teams engaged in an arms race around them. The Winnipeg Jets, who had already previously acquired Sean Monahan, grabbed Tyler Toffoli, as well as former Star Colin Miller for blueline depth. The Edmonton Oilers traded for Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick to improve their forward core.
Solid moves from both teams, but nothing compared to the two most recent Cup champions: the Colorado Avalanche won the Sean Walker sweepstakes, securing a player most Stars fans were hoping to still add. Walker will be replacing Bowen Byram on the blueline, who was subsequently shipped out for Casey Mittelstadt in a rare one-for-one, young player deal that you almost never see at the trade deadline, where pending UFAs and rental deals reign supreme.
And then there were the Vegas Golden Knights, who made a big splash when they traded for Anthony Mantha on Tuesday. Wait, no, it’s when they somehow got Noah Hanifin, Stars’ fans other desired target and Tanev’s former defensive partner, to beef up an already strong blueline. Hold on, just kidding — the real splash they made was getting Tomas Hertl for essentially two 1sts, while getting two thirds and salary retention for the next six years on the deal.
As the famous saying goes, there are three things certain in life: death, taxes, and Mark Stone going on LTIR right before the NHL trade deadline.
So yes, Dallas made a (still) great trade to fill the biggest hole on their roster. And yet, after seeing their competition load up with multiple big-name moves, it’s hard to wonder whether Tanev alone will be enough. Especially when you consider the most active teams (Winnipeg, Colorado, and Vegas) are three of the four most likely first round opponents for the Stars.
Now, that’s not to try and sound all doom and gloom. For starters, any Stars fans will tell you that, as with Thomas Harley last year, the Stars have already gotten an internal “deadline acquisition” in the form of Logan Stankoven, who has had a red hot start to his NHL career. There’s also still Mavrik Bourque who is ready for a callup and might have a similar impact. Heck, even on the blueline, Lian Bichsel is still a possible, if unlikely, option.
There’s also the other side to deadline trades: why the teams made the moves in the first place. As my former colleague David Castillo wrote yesterday, Colorado and Vegas were both teams that needed to bolster their depth, much how Dallas needed to secure a RHD. And Vegas specifically is a team that, despite being continuously touted as a Cup Favorite, is currently sitting in the second Wild Card spot. It’s highly unlikely they fallout of a playoff spot altogether, given the gap between them and the competition, but it’s not as the same as, say, last year’s Vegas squad loading up with similar moves.
And then, of course, there’s also the human element to consider, namely how Stars fans would be reacting if Dallas had made the Chris Tanev trade at the same time as the competition, rather than a week in advance. If fans saw Colorado add Walker and the Golden Knights… well, all of those guys, but then Dallas countered with Tanev, they’d probably be whooping and hollering and very happy with the Stars’ deadline haul.
But that’s not what happened. Jim Nill saw the rest of the West load up after he got the ball rolling, and he decided to not engage any further. And given how much fans joke about Nill “liking where [his] team is at,” should it really be of any surprise? Should we really be shocked that Dallas didn’t trade their 1st round pick when Nill has only ever done that (with certainty) once, for Nils Lundkvist? Especially considering trading it would have meant not picking until the 5th round of this years draft, all jokes about how a Stars 5th is really another 1st aside?
Only I’m not here to talk about what we should have expected of Nill. I’m here to talk about what Nill should have done. And when you look at the state of the Stars this year, wasn’t this a year to push all your chips into the center? Joe Pavelski has finally met father time and might be in his last year. There’s no guarantee Matt Duchene is still in Dallas next year. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are still on the wrong side of the age curve. And players like Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven, and Mavrik Bourque aren’t going to be on ELCs forever.
Sure, trading their 1st would have been a big price, but who cares? Flags fly forever. Sure, even with a deep run that pick could turn into a Bourque, but more likely it would be a Jason Dickinson, a decent piece but not a difference maker. And either way, it wouldn’t be someone joining the team until years down the line. So if your window is now, then unless you’re going to pull a draft-then-trade like Vegas did to acquire Hertl, are you really valuing that future maybe piece more than trying to win it all with probably your best team ever in victory green?
As is, the Stars are still Cup Contenders, if not one of the Cup Favorites. They’re still a very, very good team who just need more reliable goaltending from Jake Oettinger to be downright scary. If you’re a team in the Western Conference, you absolutely do not want to play Dallas in the first round, or even the second. They’re a team you’re hoping gets knocked off before you face them in the Conference Finals.
Then again, you’d probably say the same of Colorado and Vegas, even before their deadline acquisitions? Now? Unless the Stars win the division and draw the Nashville Predators or Los Angeles Kings, I can’t help but wonder if pessimism win out come playoff time.