Congratulations – you got Chris Tanev!
Now what?
With the addition of a strong Top 4 defenseman to a blueline severely lacking in depth, the Dallas Stars have taken a major step forward in their quest to be not just a Stanley Cup Contender, but a Cup Favorite. Is it enough by itself? Or does Dallas still need to bolster the blueline further if they want their names etched in silver this offseason? Let’s take a look:
“Now I Like Where Our Team is At”
For the sake of simplicity, let’s imagine that the Stars’ defenders are all healthy again, and no further additions (or subtractions) are being made to the blueline. So long as the Stars have someone on LTIR and/or keep Stankoven in the AHL, the team can carry eight defenders without issue. However, if someone needs to be sent down, the clear candidate is Joel Hanley, who would likely clear waivers and was already considered to be the No. 7 defenseman.
As far as whose place Tanev takes in the lineup, there are two options: Jani Hakanpää and Nils Lundkvist (ironically, the two players who have been hurt recently). The immediate assumption here is that Lundkvist is the odd man out – he has been healthy scratched plenty of times this season already in favor of Hanley, and it’s clear that Pete DeBoer and staff still do not trust him with meaningful minutes in tough situations, which means another permanent benching come playoff time feels inevitable.
However, there’s still a chance that Lundkvist stays in in favor of Hakanpää, or at least cycles in and out with him. Consider that Hakanpää’s main contribution to the Stars is his penalty killing prowess – he is otherwise considered to be a liability at 5-on-5, much like (in the coaching staff’s eyes) Lundkvist. But Tanev himself is a strong penalty killer, and it’s to be expected he takes Hakanpää’s place with Esa Lindell as the top, heavy minute eating defensemen on the PK.
Sure, Hakanpää would still play short handed, but he wouldn’t be eating up nearly as many minutes, which diminishes his benefit to the roster greatly. Would the Stars carry around a player they feel is weak on 5-on-5 just so they could sometimes play on the PK, only to give their top two guys a break? I’m not so sure about that.
Of course, whether or not Hakanpää or Lundkvist are in the lineup also affects the defensive pairings, which brings us to our next question: just who does Chris Tanev partner up with? I’m sure plenty of fans are daydreaming of Miro Heiskanen moving back to his strong side and teaming up with Tanev. But in this scenario, I highly doubt it – that would require one of Lindell or Thomas Harley playing on their weak side, and while I personally might argue that’s worth it to keep Heiskanen on his strong side, the Stars haven’t so much as humored such a deployment.
That gives the Stars’ two options. The first is that they keep the wonder pair of Harley and Heiskanen together and pair Tanev with Lindell, in what becomes a vast improvement of the “shutdown” pairing that Lindell and Hakanpää have tried to be in the past. The other option is they pair up Harley with Heiskanen and pair Heiskanen with either Lindell or, yes, Ryan Suter.
In the case Suter is paired with Heiskanen, there’s a good chance Hakanpää slots in next to Lindell, again to be a “shutdown” pairing, only with more limited minutes. But if Suter is on the third pairing (regardless of the Top 4 makeup), do the Stars really want to role him out there with Hakanpää? Again, this is why Lundkvist might actually still slot into the lineup on a (semi) regular basis, at least in this scenario.
To simplify things, I’d say we can expect one of two lineups, dependent on whether or not Hakanpää or Lundkvist is playing that given evening:
Harley – Heiskanen
Lindell – Tanev
Suter – Lundkvist
OR
Suter – Heiskanen
Harley – Tanev
Lindell – Hakanpää
“Go Big or Go Home”
If you’re like me, you probably prefer the first lineup above, but still think it could be better. Thankfully for us, Jim Nill was able to acquire Chris Tanev at 75% salary retained and keep the Stars’ 2024 1st round pick. That leads to a very reasonable conclusion: Dallas is still not done this trade deadline.
With the forward lines in solid shape (if not overcrowded), the Stars can afford to take another swing for a Top 4 defenseman, effectively creating an entirely new second pair out of thin air. How the blueline would look after that would be, of course, dependent on who exactly the Stars acquired. But really, it can be boiled down to a simple question: is the second new defender left handed or right?
If they’re left handed, there’s a good chance they partner up with Tanev. That keeps Harley and Heiskanen paired together, and if the two deadline acquisitions have to get used to a new partner, they might as well do it together. Then again, they’re also learning a new system, and if the Stars still view Harley and Heiskanen as their top two defensemen, they might rather split them up. That would pair the new leftie with Heiskanen and Harley with Tanev:
LHD/Harley – Heiskanen
LHD/Harley – Tanev
Suter – Lindell
Alternatively, if they’re right handed, that opens up a whole new realm of possibilities. The Stars could run the exact same first lineup from the first scenario, only swapping out the RHD for Lundkvist. But remember, we’re specifying here that the new add is a Top 4 caliber player, not a depth piece. Which means Lindell still gets pushed down to the third pairing in this scenario, and, more importantly, Heiskanen gets pushed back to his strong side:
Heiskanen – RHD/Tanev
Harley – RHD/Tanev
Suter – Lindell
This, in my opinion, is what the Stars should be pushing for ideally. Sean Walker is the first name that comes to mind, but with the Stars shipping off a 2nd and conditional 3rd for Tanev, I question whether or not the Stars have the right assets to not overpay for Walker (assuming the Philadelphia Flyers are even selling). And after him, is there anyone who would (realistically) be available that truly fits the “Top 4 caliber RHD” profile?
Alternatively, if the Stars want to simply get the best players possible, regardless of handiness… well, why not circle back to the Calgary Flames and Noah Hanifin? Again, the Stars still have that first round pick, which is what Hanifin will go for I wager. They can also send back a young player like Ty Dellandrea or Nils Lundkvist to tantalize them further, although they’d also presumably have to shed some cap via Hakanpaa, Faksa, or (if off LTIR) Dadonov.
That would enable Dallas to keep two stud pairings together, both in Harley/Heiskanen and Hanifin/Tanev, for an absolute monster Top 4. Sure, the Flames would just be helping Dallas get better, increasing the chances that their new 1st and 2nd are, say, in the 29-32 range as opposed to 24-28. But helping them get to the Cup Final also nets them that conditional 3rd round pick, so perhaps it’s a wash?
“Wildcard, Stars Fans!”
Let’s say that, at the end of the day, Dallas doesn’t make another trade after all. That just gives us the first scenario, right?
Well, not quite: remember our friendly neighborhood prospect Lian Bichsel? The Stars’ top defensive prospect left the AHL to go back to the SHL back in November, pretty much right before injuries to the blueline (starting with Miro Heiskanen) began. Oops.
But that doesn’t mean he’ll be there forever – expectations are that he will rejoin the Texas Stars once his season with Rögle BK has ended, sometime in late March or early April. Except, as 100 Degree Hockey pointed out about a week ago, Rögle’s season might end as early as March 12th if they finish 11th or 12th, too low for a playoff spot but too high for possible relegation. Currently, they are one point up on Modo Hockey for 10th place.
Let’s assume Rögle’s season finishes 11th, and Bichsel returns to the US as early as March 14th. The Stars would still have 14 games remaining on the schedule, so might they call up Bichsel to see if he can force himself into the starting lineup a la Thomas Harley last season?
If they gave him that chance and Bichsel capitalized on it, it would give us a scenario very similar to the “add a RHD” option above (Bichsel shoots left but typically plays on his right side). Alternatively, the Stars could keep Heiskanen on his right side and keep Bichsel on the third pairing (at least to start with) come playoff time:
Heiskanen – Tanev
Harley – Bichsel
Suter – Lindell
OR
Harley – Heiskanen
Lindell– Tanev
Suter – Bichsel
Possible? Yes. Probable? No. But it sure would be fun to see.
So which scenario is more likely? Personally, I don’t see why Dallas gives up a 4th round pick to get the New Jersey Devils to retain salary unless they make another trade. The only way they don’t, in my opinion, is if one never manifests at a price they are comfortable with and/or get outbid.
That gives us Scenario 2, in which, given market availability, I’d expect the Stars to add a LHD as opposed to a RHD. But either case would be a huge improvement over what Dallas currently has, which is already a massive improvement over what Dallas had yesterday afternoon.