Let’s say it’s time to overreact to Logan Stankoven’s NHL debut. Now what?
Welcome to the NHL, Logal Stankoven! After a New York City false start, the Dallas Stars prospect and the AHL’s leading scorer finally made his debut in Raleigh against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Dallas’ 2-1 win against the Hurricanes – crucial in its own right – will surely mark the start of a new phase in the lengthy professional journey for the 20-year-old Stankoven, but where’s the fun in nuance? Instead, we’re going to draw some sweeping, final conclusions from a single-game sample size.
The first thing to consider is the matchup. What, exactly, did our boy walk into? Pick a metric; the Hurricanes are an excellent team. After last night, Carolina is 9th in the NHL in both points (73) and points percentage (.640). They are also a top-10 squad in goals against (6th) and goals for (9th) and were on a bit of a run (7-3-0 in their last ten games). The Stars were also reeling from a trio of tough losses – goalie’d twice by Boston and the Rangers, plus whatever we saw in Ottawa.
No training wheels, in other words. Stankoven was expected to step in and offset the injury loss of Tyler Seguin (lower body) against an excellent team. Welcome to the NHL, kid.
When we look at his usage, it becomes clear that coach Pete DeBoer did not coddle the boy. Logan Stankoven played 15:20, good for 7th among Stars forwards and comparable to Jamie Benn (15:25) and Matt Duchene (15:21). He saw time on the power play (3:31), which is good – but the power play largely struggled against the Hurricanes, not so good. Stankoven did not play on the penalty kill. He was also on the ice late in the third period of a one-goal game, with his final shift ending just inside the two-minute mark.
This was not a cameo. Stankoven was inserted into the lineup to play a regular shift and largely did so.
In terms of production, it was more a night of almosts. The closest Stankoven came to registering a point was as a decoy. The young forward drove the net on former-then-current teammate Wyatt Johnston’s game-winner. He had three shots of good quality, including a partial breakaway in the first period and an in-tight power play look from a premium position that did not quite find its way on net. It is not difficult to imagine a universe in which Stankoven is celebrating his first game and his first goal after Carolina, but this is not that universe. Welcome to the big leagues.
While three shots are hardly prolific, the Stars as a whole only generated 16. Sample size is a major caveat, but a deeper look at the data suggests Stankoven’s line ceded play more than they dictated (46% corsi-for / 45% fenwick-for), but were more successful converting opportunities into legitimate scoring chances (66.67% SCF%). More plainly, Stankoven’s line generated 2.15 expected goals while conceding 1.29. In the long term, you’d like to see the possession tilt. A “thank you, Jake Oettinger” PDO of 125 is also highly unsustainable, but wild single-game swings are to be expected. We need to wait for more data to really understand what it’s telling us.
Those of us old enough to remember Fabian Brunnstrom understand the peril of drawing conclusions too early, but Stankoven’s play against the Hurricanes more than reinforces his future with the organization. Logan Stankoven was pressed into service on a scoring line against an excellent defense and was able to generate offense. He showed good instincts, a strong shot, and meshed well with his teammates. The goals will come.
The only question is when. If you don’t weigh in, you can’t wrestle. Stankoven needs a slot in the lineup, and the Stars seem dead-set (correctly, in my opinion) to either use Stankoven in scoring situations or keep him in the AHL. He is not going to be a flex forward. Tyler Seguin has 20 goals and plays in all situations and will eventually return. Matt Duchene has been a revelation, and Mason Marchment is having a major bounce-back season. Evgenii Dadanov’s injury seems to have created a slot with Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston, but it remains to be seen if Pete DeBoer will prefer more-tenured players in place of the kid.
The game against Carolina was undoubtedly the start of something. Stars fans just might have to wait a little bit longer to see the big picture.