It’s hard not to watch this series and think back to the Dallas Stars’ previous playoff series, also against the Vegas Golden Knights. Sure, the circumstances are different — it’s the first round, not the Conference Final, Dallas has home ice, etc. — but there are some eerie parallels between both series.
The first two games are very close ones that end up going in Vegas’ favor as they take a 2-0 series lead. The away team absolutely dominates Game 3. Dallas rattles off two straight wins after their chances of winning the series looked bleak if not worse. Dallas has all of the momentum heading into Game 6.
Of course, there’s a major difference between the two series, and it all boils down to Game 3. Last year, the Stars (fans included) were absolutely embarrassing on home ice and ended up going down 3-0 in the series. Dallas managed to storm back and make it a 3-2 series, but then they fell flat on their face again in Game 6.
(By the way, both of my in-person games that series were Games 3 and 6, in which I didn’t get to celebrate a single goal for. It sucked).
This time around, however, Dallas was the one who dominated Game 3. Sure, it went into overtime thanks to some Logan Thompson heroics, but Dallas was still able to finish the job. And then, like before, they were able to secure a second win before returning home. Only this time, it was now a 2-2 series, not 3-2, and when it came time to earn the third win, they didn’t falter.
No, if this was a test, Dallas passed with flying colors. Sure, there were hiccups here and there, such as the early goal against and whatever that was that Jake Oettinger let in, but otherwise the Stars looked to be in control of the whole game. They were getting several scoring opportunities, even as the puck continued to be allergic to the Golden Knights’ net, while overall limiting Vegas’.
Perhaps the most uplifting part of the game for me was the third period, which Dallas entered with a one-goal lead. In Game 4, they either turtled or let Vegas run all over them (or a bit of both), but still managed to pull out the win. This time, however? Dallas was able to continue applying pressure on Adin Hill, all while keeping Oettinger’s life relatively easy, save for a certain breakaway we’ll talk about later. As a fan, you had to have at least some doubt, given that it was only a one goal difference and this was Vegas we were talking about, but in a vacuum, Dallas never really did anything that was worth worrying about.
Key to this third period, I’d say, was the Stars’ superior depth. While Pete DeBoer continues the extremely questionable blueline approach of giving Nils Lundkvist peanuts of playing time (at least he got shifts after the first period!), he did have the luxury of having four quality forward lines that he could roll out one after another. Dallas kept shifts short in the third, allowing players to stay rested as the game drew to a close, whereas Bruce Cassidy was forced to over-rely on his top players to try and get an equalizer.
For context, Jack Eichel finished the game with a 24:04 TOI, behind only defensemen Miro Heiskanen (24:35) and Noah Hanifin (24:45) out of all skaters, and not by much. Jonathan Marchessault (20:21) and Tomas Hertl 24:04) were next out of Vegas forwards with four minutes less of ice time, after which TOI quickly began to drop off between player to player. In contrast, Wyatt Johnston led Stars’ forwards with 19:57 TOI, followed by Jamie Benn with 18:47, and Roope Hintz (18:08) and Jason Robertson (17:52) hovering around only ~18 minutes.
At the other end of the spectrum, Vegas’ fourth line all played less than ten minutes, whereas the Stars’ least used forward was Evgenii Dadonov, who was only one second shy (9:59). And Dadonov wasn’t even technically on the “fourth line” — Ty Dellandrea and Craig Smith each got 11:29 and 11:20 respectively, with Sam Steel managing 15:14. Even as Vegas was desperate for a goal, DeBoer was comfortable rolling out his fourth line, even against Eichel and company. And you know what? They actually disrupted him a couple of times.
Overall, Vegas was effectively shut down in the third, as they arguably were for most of the game. Because even as they tried to drag Dallas into a slugfest, as they’ve tried (and sometimes succeeded at) all series long, Dallas was able to keep Game 5 as the type of game they wanted to play. As a result, the home team finally won a game for the first time this series, and the Stars became the first NHL team to rattle off three straight playoff wins against Vegas since… well, themselves, back in the 2020 bubble playoffs.
(By the way, this was also my first in-person game this postseason. So, uhh, curse broken?)
So once again, Dallas is heading into Game 6 with all of the momentum. Only this time, they’re heading to Vegas, not Dallas, and they’re the ones up 3-2 in the series, not the Golden Knights. And while I don’t want to count my chickens before they hatch, I think you have to feel good about Dallas redeeming themselves from last postseason by returning the favor and eliminating Vegas in Game 6 in front of their fans.
Because that 2-0 deficit to start the series? It already feels like ages ago. In fact, if you were to ignore the results and judge the series just based on the play on the ice, I’m not sure anyone would be all too surprised had Dallas been yet another team to eliminate their first round opponent in five games. Vegas, unfortunately, is still alive and kicking, and they certainly won’t go out quietly, but there’s nothing but good vibes right now for the folks in Victory Green.
• Bruce Cassidy raised eyebrows yesterday morning when it was reported that Adin Hill would be starting over Logan Thompson. This is what I had to say at the time:
To expand on why I felt it was weird: if you’re Cassidy, what’s your best case scenario for the switch? It’s that Hill continues to have the Stars’ number and is able to put together a Hercluean performance to give Vegas the win and regain their series lead. Which is all fine and dandy, except didn’t Logan Thompson do just that in Game 3? Granted, they lost that one in overtime, but the point is that if a stellar performance is what you were looking for, didn’t Thompson already prove he could do that?
On the other hand, what was the worst case scenario? That Hill kept playing as he did to end the regular season and got blown out by Dallas quick and early, effectively ending the game before it could really start. In other words, there was a huge risk involved with replacing a goalie who — again, despite being shaky with his rebounds — had done nothing wrong with someone who has that “playoff experience” that magically makes them better.
And to start Game 5, it certainly looked like that worst case scenario was going to happen, with Hill allowing two goals on the first five or six shots. He stabilized after that, but he never looked all to confident, and most of the Stars’ missed opportunities (such ask the 3-0 breakaway) were just that: misses, not major saves by Hill.
Which brings us to the present, where Cassidy is now stuck between a rock and a hard place going back home for Game 6. You put Hill in because you thought he had the experience and would be able to close out the series for you, so do you stick with him when facing elimination despite him looking shaky? Or do you try and go right back to Thompson, after already benching him two games after the performance of his life? “Hey man, I know we didn’t trust you to win a game before, but we totally trust you now that we can’t afford to lose — you got this!”
You could also apply this problem to the lineup in general. For Game 5, Cassidy mixed up the forward lines and… nothing really changed for the better. So if the goalie change didn’t work, and the line blender didn’t work, and trying to be ultra physical and slug it out with Dallas didn’t work… well, what the heck is your solution going to be for Game 6 then?
• We can all agree that the officiating was atrocious last night, right? Like, not in the, “The refs hate my team and are always out to get us, let’s boo them as they miss obvious calls” kind of way, but the, “No this is absolutely indefensible” manner (with a notable exception we’ll talk about in a bit).
To start with, I’m not sure any of the first three penalties were that good of calls, especially not one against Joe Pavelski, who performed the grave crime of *checks notes* being pushed into Adin Hill. Then you have the absolute travesty of the Tyler Seguin hit, in which no call was made on the ice, but Vegas decides to then call a major after the whistle is blown, review it, and then still give a minor, even though Seguin didn’t hit Theodore in the head!
Both of these penalties, by the way, sparked online discussion regarding the ESPN broadcast, namely how rule analyst Dave Jackson, as well as the booth in general, backed up the referee’s calls 100%. Which, yes, is extremely annoying, but is also to be expected. The NHL absolutely hates it when their referees are questioned, which is why they never make any referee grades public, never offer corrections or apologies in regards to missed calls, never dish out extra fines/punishment for a hit that was called a minor, and always fine coaches and player who criticize the officiating after a game.
So of course the NHL is going to tell ESPN and TNT, “hey, make sure you agree with our calls,” or at least give a strong hint towards that goal. Which, you know, might not even be necessary to begin with, because NHL refs are a tight fraternity and Jackson doesn’t want to make his contemporaries look bad to begin with. The end result is that the “rules expert” on the broadcast doesn’t actually do anything or serve any purpose beyond saying “yes, the referees got it right, as always,” which makes for a poorer viewing experience.
Contrast that with, say, NFL broadcasts, which often do a good job at actually breaking down the penalty in question and where both the booth and the broadcast will openly disagree with a call if they feel like it was the wrong one. But the NFL is only the most watched and most profitable sports league in North America, billions upon billions above the NHL’s level, so what do they know anyways?
• That second Jake Oettigner goal was awful. Horrible. Asinine. No defending it.
But give credit where it’s deserved: Oettinger shaked it off and moved on. Outside of that one goal, it was yet another stellar performance from the Stars’ netminder, who continued his ridiculous streak of not allowing a single goal after the second period this series:
Dallas is getting some bad puck luck, with a lot of bounces not going there way in the offensive zone in addition to some just bad misses or the occasional heroic save. That could sink a lot of teams, no matter how well they are playing, as they find that their opponents aren’t having the same troubles. But Oettinger has stood tall all series long, keeping things under control and leaving it up to his teammates to close the deal. And so far, it’s working out great.
• Speaking of those skaters, it feels almost criminal to only give a small blurb about the likes of Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven, and Jason Robertson, but I’ve already rambled on long enough. Simply put, those three have outstanding all series long, in addition to the likes of Chris Tanev, Tyler Seguin, the (reformed) fourth line, etc. Heck, even Matt Duchene finally broke his dry spell and finally got on the board!
There are still some notable quiet spots from the Stars’ forwards, but we won’t get into those today. Nothing but positive vibes right now and going forward, that’s what I say.