When last we spoke it was to dream a bit about the potent Dallas Stars offense. How would the unit shape up in 2016/2017? What could possibly go wrong? For that unit, fun questions, but now things turn a bit more serious. Now it’s time to take a look at the Dallas defense. We’ll follow the same format as last time, and present what we feel are the best and worst cases for that unit. Think of it as a margin setting, ceiling and floor stuff.
Wes: Let’s start with a little trivia. Did you know that three of the six defenders Dallas dressed in their Game 7 catastrophe against St. Louis are no longer with the team? If we look at the entire playoffs that number becomes three of seven, but only due to a one game Jordie Benn cameo. The team said farewell to long time stalwart Alex Goligoski, the more recently critical Jason Demers, and deadline rental Kris Russell during the offseason. One level deeper, will he/won’t he prospect Jyrki Jokipakka (still my favorite name ever) was dealt to Calgary as part of the Russell deal. Inbound comes Dan Hamhuis.
For a team that doesn’t exactly hang its hat on defensive solidity, that last paragraph might read like I’m about to pitch the worst case, but not so! There’s some hope at play here, sure, but let’s look a little further at the actual changes Dallas made. Also, let’s consider this isn’t 1999. What did Dallas actually lose?
Working backwards, Kris Russell had a cup of coffee with the squad. Clearing his roster spot creates an opportunity for advancement within the organization. Maybe Jamie Oleksiak finally puts it all together, or Esa Lindell builds on a growing international resume. We could also see Julius Honka finally make his case as a puck-moving counterpoint to John Klingberg. At this point I should make a macro that automatically lists the roughly 47 guys ready to make the drive up I-35. Heck, Jordie Benn is a perfectly solid option at the 6D spot. There’s another Kris Russell in the Stars system, I promise.
Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski represent bigger holes. The first became a surprisingly solid member of the blueline last season while Goose – in my opinion – was an underrated cog for the entirety of his time with the Stars. Both suited the Stars’ penchant for puck movement, and Demers is even a righty! Tactically, they also leave holes on the first and second defensive pairings. Premium spots, yeah?
Still, Johnny Oduya enters season two and seems capable of steadying the second pairing, Stephen Johns looked like “the business” during the back third of last season, and Hamhuis is the classic known quantity well suited to slide into this unit and contribute. The first pairing hinges far more on Klingberg anyways.
So, really, this offseason’s shuffling amounts to creating a roster spot for Dallas’ glut of defensive prospects (a problem from last season solved), allowing Johns to continue his growth, and putting the identity of the unit into Klingberg’s hands. Not exactly a five alarm fire, right?
Dallas has to go, what, two for seven in terms of prospects? One for seven? Am I crazy to think this is suddenly a well-rounded, capable unit? Talk me out of it, I dare you!
Marcus: Interesting. But unlike the forwards, I think the difference between best and worst case defensively for this team is a terrifying. At least it terrifies me.
Best case, a couple of prospects hit, Klinger gets a few Norris votes, Hamhuis is good, etc. Worst case is a complete disaster. Allow me to illustrate.
Klingberg is good and he will continue to be good. But the problem is after him, that second layer is Dan Hamhuis, Johnny Oduya, and Stephen Johns. What if the wheels come off for Oduya? It can happen quickly. He is getting older and slower in a league that is getting younger and faster.
Does Dan Hamhuis really blow your doors off? A career 51.5% CF, 0.7% Corsi rel defenseman? What if Stephen Johns is Brenden Dillon?
Wes: Hamhuis has enjoyed a positive Corsi Rel in all but three of his professional seasons (2007-08, 08-09, and 13-14). No, he’s never been a 55%+ monster, but that’s sort of the point I’m making. In nine years as an NHL defenseman, Hamhuis has finished sub 50% exactly once, with the 2008-2009 Nashville Predators. For this roster, 51.5% is fine. So is 0.7%.
The Stars need Hamhuis to be adequate as either a John Klingberg’s wingman, or as part of a solid second unit. I’m sure they would like him to be more than that, but there’s a pretty high floor here. One last point before I move on from Hammer, but he’s played for some pretty limited squads in his time. He won’t be asked to do nearly as much in this lineup. What if he steps forward, rather than backwards?
Marcus: Long term the prospect pipeline is in place. But this season, the Stars need another Klingberg-like promotion. They simply have to get meaningful minutes from 2 of the following players: Esa Lindell, Jamie Oleksiak, Mattias Backman, Julius Honka, Patrick Nemeth, Andrew Bodnarchuk, or Ludwig Bystrom.
We know who Oleksiak and Nemeth are. Honka is just too young, though he will be there soon. If Bystrom or Bodnarchuk is a horse this season I would be surprised. It leaves the team with Lindell and Backman.
Lindell will be good and I am 72% sure Backman will be good. But how good can we really expect them to be this season? Regardless of how you feel about those two players in particular, that fact is that more rookies struggle out of the gate than not.
Wes: I’m lumping your comments about Johns in my prospect response, because they’re the same question. You have, correctly, touched upon the major pivot point for this defense: its prospects. There are questions for every name you’ve listed, but again, look at the length of the list. Sure, Johns’ late season cameo could be a mirage, but Patrik Nemeth could also be all the way back from a gruesome injury. Yes, Jamie Oleksiak might not be the minute-munching-monster Dallas envisioned when they drafted him, but Honka being too young didn’t hurt him in Cedar Park last season. Oduya’s wheels could fall off, but didn’t Esa Lindell win a World Championship with Finland and compete again in the World Cup this year?
Remember, rookies don’t always struggle. John Klingberg certainly didn’t. Klingberg, Oduya, Hamhuis, and Jordie Benn give the Stars a sturdy, if unspectacular, base. On top of that they need a couple of breaks with highly regarded prospects.
Marcus: Klingberg avoided the sophomore slump for the most part. Will Stephen Johns? Where would you rate your answer on the confidence scale?
Wes: I’m confident it won’t matter. I think we need to pump the brakes a little with Stephen Johns. His cameo at the end of last season showed a lot of promise, but it’s not like he played 40+ games in the show. Where I am confident is in the Johns/Oleksiak/Nemeth troika providing at least one quality NHL player next season. It might give more, but really, they just need the one.
For the first time in years, it feels like everything is going to be fine, and for this unit, that’s one heckuva best case.