Every year there is a discussion about the costs of moving up or moving down in the draft. This isn’t going to be a conversation about the cost of either move but instead a simple argument.
The Dallas Stars will pick 14th overall, and despite making the playoffs, that does sound familiar to Stars fans. There will be articles about prospects that the Dallas Stars could select with that pick, but there is a problem that I’m having with this exercise.
I’m a self-professed prospect and draft geek. I love researching and finding those players I’d like to pick with that first round pick and all the others as well. I make long lists of players, where they play, position, height and weight and other factors.
My list for that 14th pick? It is 15 players long. That’s not because I’m going over the top; it’s because there are a lot of prospects that could fit that pick, and it will depend on who the Dallas Stars like the look of and who they believe the Best Player Available (BPA) is.
That 14th pick is right in the middle of a tier that lasts nearly 20 picks without a staggering drop off in talent. If I have a list of 15 for that 14th pick then moving back a few picks won’t mean missing out on one of those prospects.
The Stars could move down five places and still get one of the good players in that tier. By doing that they could also pick up other assets, whether that’s prospects or other draft picks.
Obviously there are problems with this formula. What happens if there is a faller? If Elhers or Nylander start to fall? Obviously it would be worth holding on to that pick and drafting that faller. If no one falls then see if someone wants to move up.
The second main problem with this idea: it takes two to tango. If this tier is so long then why would another team want to move up a few places? This is theoretical from me, and any moving down requires someone wanting to move up.
The Dallas Stars history with trading down isn’t remembered brilliantly by Dallas fans. After trading first round picks for other picks and seeing none of them work out, it can linger on what could have been, especially when that first round pick turned into a top NHL player.
But for now if that phone rings on draft day and a team wants to move up a few places, Jim Nill should definitely give the idea of trading down a moment of thought.