There was a time when Jamie Oleksiak and Patrik Nemeth was Dallas’ Julius Honka and Esa Lindell; defensive prospects fans couldn’t wait to see suit up to help crew a finally respectable blueline. These days, their names aren’t used with reverence. Instead fans speak of them like they’ve been watching Lucy steal the football away from them since the birth of Charles Schulz.
For most Stars fans, the expectations for both men are relatively low. For some, the word ‘relatively’ is actually kind of superfluous. Or just all the way superfluous. Does anyone expect them to hold down a roster spot with all the Texas talent ready to live long and prosper?
The good news for Oleksiak and Nemeth is that Lindell, Honka, and Backman (who I believe belongs on every list about Dallas’ promising blueline prospects) have to earn their keep like every other victory green neophyte. Both men can potentially capitalize on the experience they have over their prospect counterparts. No matter how nebulous the word ‘experience’ is in the context of efficiency (like all buzzwords, the meaning fades when surrounded by data), it’s at least something worth building on for both men.
The question for Dallas’ staff is: should there be grounds for optimism?
Well, between Oleksiak’s 19 games, and Nemeth’s 38 games played, it’s quite clear that the optimism has waned more than waxed.
Possession wise, they were a mixed bag. Nemeth’s impact on shot attempts was sort of awkward: the team tends to generate more shots without him, but at least a decent minority of forwards suppressed more offense against with him on the ice. He was middle of the pack in terms of scoring chances against per 60 relative to teammates, and once again, Nemeth paired with John Klingberg makes both go super saiyan: highest CF% for any of Dallas’ defensive pairs with at least 40 minutes together. Their TOI was a shade over 50 minutes so let’s not get carried away here.
Oleksiak was all over the place, possession wise. Half the team bled chances with him on the ice, and the other half played the puck with Gandalf’s staff. While his impact on shot attempts, or Corsi For, wasn’t all that great, his Fenwick or scoring chance percentage was actually 4th on the team thanks to a very low scoring chance for per 60 rate, but an incredibly high scoring chance against per 60 rate (1st on the team, in fact). When you look at Corsica’s defense pair database, what’s interesting is that his efficiency seemed to hinge a lot on who he was paired with. He had great chemistry with Johnny Oduya (57 Percent CF), but was plain awful with Jordie Benn (40 Percent Corsi For). With his ice time all over the place, it’s hard to have a real understanding of where he’s headed.
However, neither Nemeth nor Oleksiak positively affect the team’s Goals For Percentage relative to teammates. They’re 18th and 21st, respectively, among 23 skaters with at least 100 minutes of ice time. Which means what exactly? I don’t know.
Perhaps this information helps illuminate why Jim Nill and Lindy Ruff keep hanging on to these men. They’re doing some things right, but they’re struggling too. And maybe the combination of light at the end of tunnel, and pro game experience have Nill err on the side of hope. What are they worth to another team, after all? To Anaheim? Probably just a can of garbanzo beans.
Much has been made of how these two have been “handled”. As if neither man helps contribute to the control Ruff and Nill have over them. Development is tricky in the NHL. Nill and Ruff must look at not just the current roster, but its future core. They must decide if free agency, or farm strength are better bets against Oleksiak and Nemeth’s contributions. If neither can hedge against the culling scales of natural selection, then what’s the real loss?
It’s difficult to follow, endorse, and grow with these prospects only to one day say goodbye as if they’re strangers. Because by now, they’re not. But it’s a reality fans can either accept without chasing around undue narratives (“well Ruff didn’t play them enough!”), or not. For Oleksiak and Nemeth, it’s the proverbial ‘put up or shut up’.