We’ve finally arrived.
The NHL Expansion Draft is upon us and it is time for the Golden Knights to steal (or mercifully take) players from every team in the league.
Jim Nill and the Dallas Stars really could not have put themselves in a better position. Worst case scenario, they say goodbye to a young, left-handed defenseman who probably find their days in Dallas numbered as it is. Best case scenario, they shed a sizable contract which could allow Nill to make yet another summer splash in the trade market or perhaps free agency.
Reports are circulating that Cody Eakin will be filing a change of address form as he’ll be the Vegas selection of the Stars’ exposed list. Eakin is an interesting case. There are glaring negatives to this selection, namely his contract (3 years left at $3.85M per season). His underlying numbers or production don’t line up with that money at all.
With that being said, three years at a slightly-inflated price isn’t something that is likely going to bother Vegas at this point in time. There are positives to Eakin, especially his versatility. He can play just about anywhere in the lineup and while he isn’t an ideal top-six forward, he doesn’t look completely out of place when forced up there. He is also plenty capable of playing in both shorthanded and powerplay situations.
He’s only 26 and while we generally get a pretty good idea of who a player is at that point, it doesn’t mean he still couldn’t improve a bit in the next couple of years.
Should the reports prove untrue…
There are three other realistic targets for Vegas to take from Dallas: Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Oleksiak, and Patrik Nemeth. They could go off-the-board but it is extremely unlikely they take anyone outside of that group unless they wanted to lock down Patrick Sharp with a deal before July 1st.
Dan Hamhuis
With all of the young talent on the blue-line that is expected to be available for Vegas, Dan Hamhuis fits the “veteran presence for some up-and-coming players” mold to a T.
Hamhuis has just one year left on a deal that is paying him $3.75M, an easily absorbed contract for a team that will be looking to hit the cap floor. According to puckalytics.com, Hamhuis also posted the second-highest CF% among Stars’ defensemen this season at 51.92%.
Looking at the previous season, Hamhuis definitively out-performed the rest of the group when it came to controlling shot attempts during 5v5 play.
Another interesting idea for the selection of Hamhuis is taking him for a future deal to be made at the trade deadline. He’s the type of player that Cup contenders are generally willing to pay for in March in preparation for a deep playoff run. So if Vegas looks at the Dallas’ players available and don’t see any of them in their future plans, Hamhuis could be the easy pick.
Jamie Oleksiak
While Oleksiak hasn’t been what Dallas fans wanted him to be, he also has yet to have the opportunity to post a full season in the NHL. Now there certainly can be performance reasons for that, but if Vegas is taking a player from Dallas based on potential, Oleksiak is likely the guy there.
In five seasons in the NHL, Oleksiak has appeared in a total of 119 games. That’s an average of under 24 games a season. If Vegas is willing to give him 60+ games (which is a tough ask considering the amount of talented defensemen who should be available), he could be a decent pick-up. It would be a pretty low-risk, high-reward gamble for Vegas should they choose to go that route.
Patrik Nemeth
Nemeth falls into almost the exact circumstance that Oleksiak is in. He doesn’t yet have a contract for next season, he hasn’t played more than half of a season and he is a relatively high draft pick.
Oleksiak likely has more trade value for Vegas should they want to go that route but Nemeth has had a little more extended success in the NHL at this point in their careers. It would likely be a coin-flip between the two if Vegas is looking to pick based on potential alone.
Who to Choose?
If I’m Vegas, it really comes down to Eakin and Hamhuis and depends entirely on positional need.
The Golden Knights should have an above-average group of defensemen when the expansion draft is said and done, while talented forwards are going to be tough to come by. That is the only reason I would give Eakin the edge over Hamhuis here in this situation.
Hamhuis would likely help Vegas more, but they simply may decide that Eakin will be one of their four-best centers that they have available to them.