Games like the one that the Dallas Stars lost to the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday evening are bound to happen throughout a 82 game season. Dallas did make it interesting in the end, but until the team went empty net with just over six minutes left in the game, the play was lethargic.
You could also look at the fancy stats. The good old Moneypuck.com Deserve to Win O’Meter had the Stars north of 80%.
At 5×5, Joe Pavelski had more expected goals than the Canadiens. This wasn’t score effects.
If you go to NaturalStatTrick.com, every single Star was over 50% in expected goals percentage at even strength. Truth be told, Dallas lost the game because of a handful of defensive breakdowns, and Scott Wedgewood had his second sub-par game in a row.
It happens – and Wedgewood has been a rock in net since Jake Oettinger went down with an injury 10 games ago. At some point, you might have thought that in either the Montreal game or one of the two games against the Chicago Blackhawks over the weekend, that Matt Murray might have seen the ice.
But that could bring out questions of trust, and nobody here wants to curse the numerous Nils Lundkvist sightings of late.
The schedule moving forward is a bit more challenging. There are divisional opponents in spades, mostly teams nipping at the Stars heals – but starting out with the Colorado Avalanche in a game that should be telling in where Dallas sits in the Central pecking order.
Dallas Stars Lineup
Jason Robertson (21) – Roope Hintz (24) – Joe Pavelski (16)
Mason Marchment (27) – Matt Duchene (95) – Tyler Seguin (91)
Jamie Benn (14) – Wyatt Johnston (53) – Evgenii Dadonov (63)
Craig Smith (15) – Radek Faksa (12) – Sam Steel (18)
Ryan Suter (20) – Miro Heiskanen (4)
Esa Lindell (23) – Jani Hakanpää (2)
Thomas Harley (55) – Joel Hanley (44)
Scott Wedgewood (41)
Matt Murray (32)
All lines were clicking against Montreal. Getting Benn and Johnston both on the scoresheet should remove some of the pressure on a line that has been under-perfoming over the last month.
On the fourth line, Sam Steel is slowly showing his pedigree over the other three forwards who are fighting for ice time. If ever Pete DeBoer wants to shake up the top three lines, moving Steel up (and Dadonov down) might be worth a try. A swap would be easy to try, but it would be interesting to see Pavelski with Benn and Johnston, and having Steel with Robertson and Hintz would add speed and create a terrorizing forechecking trio.
Defensively, the team seems in a rut, but since that rut has lately included Lundkvist. The supposedly new found trust, however, does not include playing in a high level divisional matchup, so Hanley draws back in.
Colorado Avalanche Lineup
Jonathan Drouin (27) – Nathan MacKinnon (29) – Mikko Rantanen (96)
Miles Wood (28) – Ryan Johansen (12) – Valeri Nichushkin (13)
Ben Meyers (59) – Ross Colton (20) – Logan O’Connor (25)
Andrew Cogliano (11) – Fredrik Olofsson (22) – Joel Kiviranta (94)
Devon Toews (7) – Cale Makar (8)
Bowen Byram (4) – Josh Manson (42)
Samuel Girard (49) – Jack Johnson (3)
Alexandar Georgiev (40)
Ivan Prosvetov (50)
This lineup is similar to what the Avalanche rolled out in their 6-3 win over Dallas on November 18 – the one where the Stars went up three, only to give up six straight, including four in the third period.
Out is Tomas Tatar, since moved to the Seattle Kraken, and in is a reliable Ben Meyers. On defense, Josh Manson is back, so the defense isn’t missing any pieces.
Both Georgiev and Prosvetov have been OK in net.
This is the Colorado team that you’d expect. Top heavy with skilled guys (and they are highly skilled), with the bottom end filled in with pieces who aren’t going to make much upside impact, but will hold their own and compete.
Keys to the Game
Puck Possession. This is always true, but more-so with the Avalanche. If Colorado gets their cycle going, its going to be a long night for the Stars.
Matchups. Dallas sports three lines that are legitimate scoring threats. Isolating one line against Colorado’s bottom six and third pair – and then producing – will give the Stars an edge.
Goaltending. This can be leaky for both teams. Rebound control and owning the crease are paramount.