Slow starts are becoming an unfortunate trend for the Dallas Stars. On Tuesday night, Natural Stat Trick showed the Pittsburgh Penguins with a 8-0 high danger shot share during the first period. It looked bad, and if not for Jake Oettinger, the 1-0 actual deficit could have been significantly worse.
After a quick flight back to Dallas, the Stars take on the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday evening. It’s not hard to see the key to beating the 4-2 Maple Leafs. In their four wins, the team is averaging over five goals per game. In the two losses, that number is one.
Oettinger just might be important this game – but only in his absence. The Stars have presented their goaltenders some challenges so far this year. To date, Oettinger in particular, but also Scott Wedgewood, have taken those challenges and blockered them into the netting. There is a hope that the defense will step up and lock things down, but its more likely the case that the Stars netminder will need to make those key saves that have kept the Stars undefeated in regulation so far this season.
Dallas Stars Lineup
Jason Robertson (21) – Roope Hintz (24) – Joe Pavelski (16)
Jamie Benn (14) – Wyatt Johnston (53) – Ty Dellandrea (10)
Evgenii Dadonov (63) – Matt Duchene (95) – Tyler Seguin (91)
Craig Smith (15) – Radek Faksa (12) – Mason Marchment (27)
Ryan Suter (20) – Miro Heiskanen (4)
Esa Lindell (23) – Nils Lundkvist (5)
Thomas Harley (55) – Jani Hakanpää (2)
Scott Wedgewood (41)
Jake Oettinger (29)
The Stars went to the old line mixer in Pittsburgh. For the most part, it worked. Consider, Marchment put up a <10% shot share with Seguin and Duchene, but one paired with Faksa and Smith, it stood at around 67%.
At some point, there might be some questions about whether then numbers just reflect a team getting its legs, or whether the changes brought about better play. If nothing else, the team played better one the line changes went into effect – and that should be enough to roll with the changes for at least one more game.
Toronto Maple Leafs Lineup
Calle Jarnkrok (19) – Auston Matthews (34) – Mitchell Marner (16)
Tyler Berguzzi (59) – John Tavares (91) – William Nylander (88)
Max Domi (11) – David Kampf (64) – Matthew Knies (23)
Noah Gregor (18) – Pontus Holmberg (29) – Ryan Reaves (75)
Morgan Rielly (44) – TJ Brodie (78)
Jake McCabe (22) – Timothy Liljegren (37)
Mark Giordano (55) – John Klingberg (3)
Joseph Woll (60)
Ilya Samsonov (35)
As tempting as it is to discuss the Leafs superstars, the season to date has depended more heavily on the teams goaltenders. Samsonov was slated as the number one before training camp, but an 83.1 save percentage has the team giving Woll a shot. A 95.7 save percentage certainly doesn’t hurt, but he has only 14 NHL games under his belt. Based on his performance, the starters net is Woll’s to lose.
One thing that Toronto can do – at least during the regular season – is score their way out of a defensive hole. Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander can all produce. The bottom six, not so much. Domi is kicking in some playmaking, and there have been some signs of life from the third line, but unless you’re one of those who respects the intangibles that Ryan Reeves brings, that fourth line is oooof.
Toronto has been managing 2022 second round draft pick Fraser Minton’s game action. He looked great in camp, and through four games, has filled a hole as third line center. It is expected that he will be returned to the Kamloops Blazers before he hits 10 games.
It took the Leafs a handful of games to figure out that John Klingberg is a third pair, power play specialist. The thing is, the Toronto power play is clicking with Klingberg at the point, and if the Stars parade to the box, their season long streak of keeping the puck out of the net on the penalty kill is in jeopardy.
Keys to the Game
Special Teams. Toronto is fourth in the league on the power play. The Stars penalty kill is without blemish, but their power play has been less than ideal.
Goaltending. The Stars netminders have put the team on his shoulders to open the season. Wedgewood is facing a highly potent offense – and like a true backup, he needs to keep Dallas in the game.
Scoring. Dallas won 4-1 against Pittsburgh the last time out. Otherwise, its been a feast of one goal games. Toronto puts pucks in the net – a bunch of them. When they don’t score, they don’t win. The Stars may prefer a low scoring affair.
Coaching Matchup? Per MoreHockeyStats, Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe is 4-0 head-to-head against Pete DeBoer.