In a battle of backups on Saturday night, the Dallas Stars Scott Wedgewood was the difference maker. Not that the Dallas Stars didn’t hang him out to dry, especially on the power play where the team gave up a number of chances, three of which turned into goals.
To add context, this is the Stars power play shot distribution chart.
The Stars broadcast, and others after the game, took issue with Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Samuel Ersson squaring up on skaters instead of the puck on rush attempts. I’m not up on the technicalities of goaltending, but it’s pretty obvious that this could be an issue, especially on shooters coming up the ice on their off side. Regardless, several of the Stars goals against Ersson could be considered “soft”.
Looking at the Stars record, 3-0-1. The team has only trailed in one game. Any other year, that would be a “good start”, regardless of how those points were banked. This year is different. Expectations are high and Stars fans are finding a new symbiosis with Toronto Maple Leafs fans – but that is a story for later in the week.
Dallas Stars Lineup
Jason Robertson (21) – Roope Hintz (24) – Joe Pavelski (16)
Jamie Benn (14) – Wyatt Johnston (53) – Evgenii Dadonov (63)
Mason Marchment (27) – Matt Duchene (95) – Tyler Seguin (91)
Craig Smith (15) – Radek Faksa (12) – Ty Dellandrea (10)
Ryan Suter (20) – Miro Heiskanen (4)
Esa Lindell (23) – Nils Lundkvist (5)
Thomas Harley (55) – Jani Hakanpää (2)
Jake Oettinger (29)
Scott Wedgewood (41)
Dellandrea is back, leaving Sam Steel as the odd man out of the fourth line rotation.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Stars expected goals for percentage is higher at even strength than it is on the power play. At 52%, at least its still slightly positive. In football, you might actually decide to decline a penalty. Frankly, a real comedian could probably put together a full hour routine with the material out there.
But enough fun – this is Stars hockey. They aren’t even doing the “Friends in Low Places” sing-along in the third period right now, so fun is decidedly out.
That said, the top line is producing – Jason Robertson’s points will come. Johnston and Benn are buzzing. Seguin and Duchene seem to have some chemistry. Even the fourth line has scored. There’s no obvious reason why Pete DeBoer can’t roll all lines in all situations – and over an 82 game season, that’s going to have untold benefits.
Pittsburgh Penguins Lineup
Jake Guentzel (59) – Sidney Crosby (87) – Bryan Rust (17)
Reilly Smith (19) – Evgeni Malkin (71) – Rickard Rakell (67)
Drew O’Connor (10) – Lars Eller (20) – Radim Zohorna (63)
Matt Nieto (83) – Noel Acciari (55) – Jeff Carter (77)
Ryan Graves (27) – Kris Letang (58)
Marcus Pettersson (28) – Erik Karlsson (65)
John Ludvig (7) – Chad Ruhwedel (2)
Alex Nedeljkovic (39)
Tristan Jarry (35)
First thing to know – the Penguins are old. Three starting forwards and three starting defenders are under 30. And there isn’t all that much help down at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. The team is 2-3-0 on the season with the Colorado Avalanche following the Stars into Pittsburgh. If things don’t turn around, this could well be a last gasp of a leadership group on its way out. They’ve had success, but this team could turn out to be last years Chicago Blackhawks.
Pittsburgh still rates full time, reliable coverage from The Athletic, including what needs to happen to their bottom six. It’s good, so read it if you have the subscription and want a more detailed picture of all things Penguin.
For Dallas, all of this doesn’t mean that things are going to be easy. The top two forward lines and the defensive top four feature aging superstar talent surrounded by a respectable supporting cast. Tristan Jarry got his well earned payday and is a respectable number one in net. But tonight, the Stars get their second straight backup.
https://twitter.com/OwenNewkirk/status/1716842142759313714
Alex Nedeljkovic is 2-3-1 in 6 GP against DAL (4 with CAR, 2 with DET), with a 3.29 GAA & a 0.874 SV%. Former Texas Stars defenseman Ryan Shea (who made his NHL debut Saturday at STL) will play tonight & defenseman John Ludvig will make his NHL debut against Dallas.
Capfriendly still list Ruhwedel as the third pair RD, but per Owen Newkirk above, we could see Ryan Shea in his second NHL game.
Keys to the Game
Depth vs. Concentrated Talent. Matchups are going to matter. What Dallas has that Pittsburgh doesn’t is a third (and fourth?) line that can score. The Stars need to take advantage of their team depth.
Power Play blip. Don’t dwell on the special teams disaster against the Flyers. The Penguins don’t run a power kill and there is no reason to climb into a shell during a 5×4 advantage. Scoring on the first opportunity would be ideal.
Overtime. At least its an east coast game – so when the inevitable happens, it shouldn’t ruin your sleep patterns.