Because these projections were wildly popular (or so I keep telling myself) and because of Brad’s post about the Stars ascent to the 3rd spot in the Western Conference standings, I decided to dust off the point projections spreadsheet and update it just to see what I’d find.
Here’s the data by point percentage with overall wins and regulation wins (not shown) as the tiebreaker. And after the jump, some observations.
| GP | GR | W | L | OT | PTS | Pt Pct | Win PCT |
PtsPer Game |
Proj Pts |
Proj W |
Max Pts |
GmsVs Stars |
Stars pts | Opp Pts | ||
| 1 | DET |
20
|
62
|
14
|
4
|
2
|
30
|
0.750
|
0.700
|
1.500
|
123
|
57
|
154
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
| 2 | CLB |
21
|
61
|
14
|
7
|
0
|
28
|
0.667
|
0.667
|
1.333
|
109
|
55
|
150
|
|||
| 3 | DAL |
22
|
60
|
13
|
8
|
1
|
27
|
0.614
|
0.591
|
1.227
|
101
|
48
|
147
|
|||
| 4 | VAN |
22
|
60
|
12
|
7
|
3
|
27
|
0.614
|
0.545
|
1.227
|
101
|
45
|
147
|
|||
| 5 | STL |
22
|
60
|
12
|
7
|
3
|
27
|
0.614
|
0.545
|
1.227
|
101
|
45
|
147
|
3
|
6
|
1
|
| 6 | PHX |
22
|
60
|
11
|
6
|
5
|
27
|
0.614
|
0.500
|
1.227
|
101
|
41
|
147
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
| 7 | LA |
22
|
60
|
13
|
9
|
0
|
26
|
0.591
|
0.591
|
1.182
|
97
|
48
|
146
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
| 8 | SJ |
22
|
60
|
11
|
7
|
4
|
26
|
0.591
|
0.500
|
1.182
|
97
|
41
|
146
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
| 9 | COL |
23
|
59
|
13
|
9
|
1
|
27
|
0.587
|
0.565
|
1.174
|
96
|
46
|
145
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
| 10 | MIN |
22
|
60
|
11
|
9
|
2
|
24
|
0.545
|
0.500
|
1.091
|
89
|
41
|
144
|
|||
| 11 | CHI |
26
|
56
|
13
|
11
|
2
|
28
|
0.538
|
0.500
|
1.077
|
88
|
41
|
140
|
|||
| 12 | NSH |
22
|
60
|
9
|
8
|
5
|
23
|
0.523
|
0.409
|
1.045
|
86
|
34
|
143
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
| 13 | ANA |
25
|
57
|
11
|
11
|
3
|
25
|
0.500
|
0.440
|
1.000
|
82
|
36
|
139
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
| 14 | CGY |
23
|
59
|
9
|
12
|
2
|
20
|
0.435
|
0.391
|
0.870
|
71
|
32
|
138
|
|||
| 15 | EDM |
22
|
60
|
6
|
12
|
4
|
16
|
0.364
|
0.273
|
0.727
|
60
|
22
|
136
|
|||
|
336
|
894
|
172
|
127
|
37
|
381
|
0.567
|
0.512
|
1.134
|
93
|
42
|
-127
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
- /
The Stars have a point percentage of .614 (27 out of a possible 44 points) and a winning percentage of .591. If you project that out, the Stars would finish with a total of 101 points. Or an improvement of 13 points over last season.
As Brad mentioned, the Stars have done their fair share of damage against the Eastern Conference, racking up a total of 12 points out of a possible 16 (didn’t have enough room on the spreadsheet to include this). Their loss last Monday to Toronto represented just the second loss of the season against the East. Their other loss occurred on October 18th at Tampa Bay.
Against the West, however, they’ve picked up 15 out of a possible 28 points. Not bad, mind you. Until you factor in the 16 points that West opponents have picked up against the Stars.
As far as some Western Conference observations:
- The Chicago Blackhawks currently sit 5th in the West. But that’s primarily because they’ve racked up 28 points in 26 games, which is the most number of games played thus far in the season. As a result, they have a point percentage of just .538, good for 11th in the West.
- Last year, 95 points wound up being the cut line in the West while in the East, it was 88 points. This year, it’s been bumped up to 97 points in the West and 90 points in the East.
- Brad mentioned that Dallas is just four points off the 13th spot in the West. As you can see from the spreadsheet, if you project the entire Western Conference out based on the results up to this point in the season, there’s a 5 point gulf between the 3rd seed and the 9th seed.
- And if you project out, three teams from the West that made the playoffs last year would miss them this year. Those teams being the Avalanche, Predators, and the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks. If the Hawks do miss the playoffs, they would become just the second team in the post-lockout era to win the Cup in one season and miss the playoffs the next.
- Edmonton finished with the worst record in the NHL with 62 points. This year, they’re on pace to only accumulate 60 points.
- The average points per game by all Western Conference teams is 1.134. In the East, it’s 1.074