It’s hard to believe but even after graduating some very good players, the Dallas Stars still have a loaded talent pool with varying degrees of readiness. It’s been the defining feature of Jim Nill’s second half. What started out as a very (very) questionable run of Valeri Nichushkin, Jason Dickinson, Julius Honka, Denis Gurianov, and Riley Tufte turned into Miro Heiskanen, Jake Oettinger, Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, and Logan Stankoven. While Stars fans have strong opinions about where Dallas ranks in national outlets, it’s important to recognize what a unique position the Stars are in — built to win now with a prospect pool that can win later.
However, things change. Players change. And so do their prospects. Recall that in 2017, Jason Dickinson was coming off a fantastic rookie AHL year; one that saw him compete with Mikko Rantanen for the AHL’s version of a Calder. As a result, the 2017 rankings had him above Roope Hintz. So however these rankings look, they’re always subject to change.
For the purpose of clarity, I’m gonna define any prospect as a player with fewer than 25 NHL games, and at or under 23 years of age. My age cutoff might be a little low, but that’s because there’s a lot of data on draft picks, and the bitter truth is that better players are more likely to be ready sooner — in fact the average time it takes for a prospect to become an NHLer is four seasons. That doesn’t mean a 24-year old in Dallas’ system like Nicholas Caamano or Erik Karlstrom can’t make an impact*. It just means, for me at least, they’re more of a young veteran than an emerging adult.
Important note: These rankings are a combination of personal opinion and general consensus. As with the old rankings, I’ll update them periodically. I also want to give credit where credit’s due: in this case, the hfboards for doing a very useful and well-organized community ranking.
Tier 1: The Gifted
I define a tier 1 prospect as a player whose potential floor is either as a middle six forward, a top four defensemen, or a starting goaltender.
(#1) Logan Stankoven
Center/Right Wing. Age: 20. 2021 Draft, 47th overall.
He needs no introduction. Stankoven remains Dallas’ crown jewel. He scored 127 points for the Kamloops Blazers (if you include the playoffs) and added another 11 in seven games at the World Juniors for Team Canada. He’s got nothing left to prove in the WHL. And he’s ready for the next step.
He is, like Jeff Speakman before him, The Perfect Weapon.
Of all the prospects likely to make the jump, Stankoven is the #1 candidate. While there’s no immediate room for him, injuries to the top six would clear the way. As a natural center who can play right wing, it’s possible he even plays his way into the lineup; assuming he can keep up in the AHL. However, it’s important for fans not to jump the gun. Not every young player is gonna do what Johnston did and come in like the Guns of the Navarone. Even a player as supernaturally gifted as Roope Hintz didn’t dominate the AHL out the gate; conversely, players like Jason Dickinson and Riley Damiani had excellent first years.
However, I understand why fans would jump the gun. He’s everything you’d want in a forward (besides size): an endless motor, playmaking skills along the interior and exterior of the ice, shooting skills in high danger areas, evasive in-tight, can control plays along the rush and off the cycle, plays with and can determine the tempo of any given play, etc. Stankoven’s talents are so obvious it’s almost kind of frustrating to see him have to “earn” his way up, as if that’s not exactly what he’s already been doing. But rules are rules I guess.
Regardless: get hyped.
(#2) Lian Bichsel
LHD/RHD (left-handed). Age: 19. 2022 Draft, 18th overall.
There’s probably a case to be made for Bichsel below Bourque. I’m giving it to Bichsel on the basis of Dallas not having a lot of blue chip defensive prospects, whereas Bourque is part of a large group of playmaking forwards. In addition, Bichsel’s profile is perfect for what Dallas needs: a multidimensional shutdown defender. There is also no one on Dallas’ blueline even close to playing with the assertiveness that Bichsel does. (Lindell and Hakanpaa are big, but assertive or especially physical they are largely not.)
I’ve already broken down Bichsel’s game at the Stars Stack, where I thought his performance at the World Juniors felt like his coming-out party. Needless to say, I think there’s a lot more than meets the eye. While it’s hard to project Bichsel’s ceiling, I think projecting his floor is easy. He has all the tools to play a top-four role. I’m not sure Bichsel would rate particularly high in a more defensively-rich prospect pool, but he’s the best the Stars has to offer, and besides — Dallas’ scouts have earned the benefit of the doubt on this one.
(#3) Mavrik Bourque
Center/Right Wing (shoots right). Age: 21. 2020 Draft, 30th overall.
Bourque might be in Stankoven’s shadow, but I don’t know that’s how this rank will look in five years. Picked 30th overall in 2020, Bourque has done nothing but progress (well, with one exception). He was brilliant in the QMJHL in his post-draft year. In 2022, he practically broke Mitch Brown’s tracking analytics.
Analytically, he was elite at almost everything he ever did in juniors. But his first full year in Cedar Park proved to be a challenge. Nonetheless, after a slow start, he eventually found a rhythm, and ended the season with a respectable 47 points in his first AHL season.
Bourque is a toolsy playmaker. That makes him sound non-elite, but in this case, I think that makes him more dynamic. He’s not a player who falls in love with his own creativity, or likes to be super fancy. He’s just making sure the puck is always moving up ice, with possession, however he can facilitate it. A slow start in the AHL doesn’t surprise me given how north-south that league is. As Sean Shapiro says, only playmakers get better in the NHL, so Bourque’s maturation will depend a lot on where he fits into the lineup. Playmakers always need the right linemates to be fully maximized, so this will be one among many challenges he’ll face. However, his ceiling is sky-high, which is nuts given where he was picked.
(#4) Christian Kyrou
RHD. Age: 19 years. 2022 Draft, 50th overall.
Most people have Kyrou in the Tier 2 category. Honestly, I think most people are right. Still, I can’t shake the notion that Kyrou isn’t a serious impact player if he makes it. The existence of Lane Hutson breaking NCAA records has always bothered me but 2017 bought enough draft goodwill to last a lifetime. To be even fairer we need to stop talking about 2017 as the only reason Dallas’ scouts have earned the benefit of the doubt given how much late-round talent they’ve been netting. I think that’s my biggest reason for wondering if the scouts were right.
There’s plenty of evidence to suggest as much.
Kyrou technically has a path to the NHL. What other natural right handed defenders are in front of him? Beyond that his offensive impact on shot quality might be the best from a junior defender in years. No seriously.
So why aren’t talking about Kyrou like the blue chip talent he is?
If we are, I think it has more to do with Heiskanen, Harley, and Lundkvist being in the system than anything tangibly wrong with Kyrou’s game (at least on the offensive side). There’s a lot to like about Kyrou. While he doesn’t have a strong top speed, he’s agile, and plays with pace (skating is not a catchall term, so whatever you’ve heard from others about Kyrou’s skating, I would call it neither bad nor good, but nuanced: he’s lacking certain elements of skating in his game, but not others). His puck handling is sorcerous, and he has a wicked shot from virtually every angle.
If Kyrou is held back by anything, it’s that he has a classic puck mover’s problem: he’s too adventurous. He plays the game exactly like a stereotype of a puck mover, jumping into plays, and taking shots normally reserved for forwards. I prefer to call this positionless hockey, but it’s an uphill battle for players like Kyrou because you can only have so many offensive defensemen — at least according to conventional wisdom. The good news is that we’ll find out quickly just how how much he can leverage his strengths over his weaknesses, since he’s slated to play for the Texas Stars this season.
Tier 2: The X-Factors
I define a tier 2 prospect as a player whose potential ceiling is either as a middle six forward, a bottom four defensemen, or a 1B goaltender.
(#5) Ayrton Martino, LW
Left wing. Age: 20 years. 2021 Draft, 73rd overall. 5’11, 161 lbs.
I don’t get why more fans don’t talk about Martino as one of Dallas’ top prospects. He led Clarkson University in points this past season, and was only four points away from the lead in his freshman year the season before. His 38 points this year was only four shy of Matthew Knies yet you can’t go anywhere without hearing about Toronto’s golden boy. (Keep in mind, this is not to say Martino is as good; much as I pick on national coverage, Knies really is elite.)
Statistically, there’s a lot to like.
Martino’s calling is, like Stankoven and Bourque, a high-AQ player (I’m usually all about sports science, but I have no idea if Athletic Quotient is a real thing; I just know “IQ” needs to be dead and buried for its lazy pendulum of ‘smart versus dumb’). His offensive awareness is first-rate, profiling like a classic playmaker. Like Bourque and Stankoven, Martino fits the bill of a forward always keeping the play alive with his spatient awareness and pace despite not necessarily having the physical tools to dominate.
The biggest thing hurting Martino is just how many prospects in Dallas’ system share a similar profile. It’s a funny critique given where this team was back when it was nothing but Big Boi forwards (Nichushkin, Gurianov, and Tufte), but it is what it is. Martino, currently unsigned, will have to leave no doubt. While his place on Dallas’ future roster might seem uncertain, with the right development, Martino has potential to be a real gem.
(#6) Aram Minnetian
RHD. Age: 18 years. 2023 Draft, 125th overall.
This one’s a hot take, I know. In fact, that isn’t even the half of it. I personally have Minnetian fourth on my list. In the interest of diplomacy, I’ll dial it back. What makes Minnetian so interesting to me? When I think about the modern day defensemen, it’s no longer about puck movers versus shutdown types, but a spectrum of rushers, stoppers, and retrievers (to borrow from Corey Sznajder). Minnetian’s ability to stop plays with his physicality, retrieve pucks with his awareness, and shorten the neutral zone with his skating form the backbone of a real, three-zone defender. Unlike Kyrou, who is pure boom/bust, Minnetian plays a structured game, giving him a high floor. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t improvise. When it comes to defensemen, production is less interesting than transition ability, and Minnetian has plenty of the latter. Set to play for Boston College this season, I expect fans to start keeping close tabs on him as the season progresses.
(#7) Tristan Bertucci
LHD. Age: 18 years. 2023 Draft, 61st overall.
I was bit hard on Bertucci after the 2023 draft; mainly because I felt like a superior defensemen went 14 picks later. But what’s done is done, and this is about where Bertucci fits into Dallas’ system. With 50 points in 63 games last year for the Flint Firebirds (where he’ll be returning), it’ll be interesting to see if he takes that next step and flirts around a point-per-game level. Bertucci certainly has the profile for it. With a quick stride, and fluid edgwork, he can switch between accelerating through single lanes and changing tempo in all three zones. There’s room for Bertucci in the distant future as a hybrid defender on the bottom pair. I can’t imagine him being anything else, but the talent is there to make it into the Tier 1 category if he starts putting it all together.
(#8) Matthew Seminoff
Right Wing. Age: 20 years. 2022 Draft, 179th overall.
Stankoven wasn’t the only teenage prospect to net more than 100 points through a CHL regular + postseason. Stankoven’s flank was the other one, scoring 101, including the playoffs, punctuated by a blistering 19 points in 14 games. Like many of Dallas’ top forward prospects, Seminoff excels at finding open space, driving through lanes with his head on a swivel. His mechanics don’t jump off the page, but he’s a cerebral, get-it-done forward who generates a ton of chances with the puck. In terms of shot creation and quality, he actually rated higher than Stankoven in a 13-game sample of three-zone tracking.
Seminoff lacks in other areas, but with him slated to start in the AHL, he’s another player with a shockingly high ceiling despite not being in the top five.
(#9) Remi Poirier
Goalie. Age: 21 years. 2020 Draft, 185th overall.
Poirier gets into the top 10 by virtue of being one of the rare goalie prospects in Dallas’ system, but also because I don’t think he’s talked about enough. He absolutely dominated the ECHL, only losing two games in regulation. Somehow he went 0-2 in the playoffs with the Steelheads despite posting a .919 save percentage. The step up in competition in the AHL wasn’t nearly as big of a hurdle as many would have assumed, and not only was he up to the task, he embraced the spotlight in more ways than one — doing the kind of thing that would have made a fellow Poirier proud. With Scott Wedgewood’s recent history with injuries, don’t be surprised if Poirier plays a critical role at some point.
(#10) Francesco Arcuri
Left Wing. Age: 20 years. 2021 Draft, 175th overall.
Stankoven. Bourque. Martino. Seminoff. Add Arcuri to the list of creative, playmaking forwards with NHL upside. Last season was the second point-per-game campaign in Arcuri’s young career. Crazily, he actually experienced a boost in his point rates after being traded from the Kingston Frontenacs to the Kitchener Rangers. Arcuri is an electric mix of everything you’d expect out of a high-processing forward: positioning, routing, shooting, passing. The only thing holding him back is that he’s not a plus-athlete. However, he’ll have the chance to separate himself from the pack when he makes his AHL debut this season.
Tier 3: The Puncher’s Chance
I define a tier 3 prospect as a player whose potential ceiling is in a depth role, or a career in professional hockey outside the NHL.
(#11) Antonio Stranges
Left Wing. Age: 21 years. 2020 Draft, 123rd overall.
This ranking will look strange to a lot of people (pay attention to the tiers more than the ranks) so let me explain. He was intensely productive in his limited time in the AHL. You have to wonder how much of Stranges’ lack of playing time is on him, and how much is on the AHL coaching staff not being willing to trust him. 12 points in 19 games is pretty serious. If he had played as many games as Bourque, he would been only three points shy of tying him (with 44). Like Kyrou, Stranges will always be pigeonholed as a certain type of player. So no matter how much work, effort, and talent he shows in the areas he’s expected to be good in, he’s gonna need to play against type to win the trust of coaches. In a lesser prospect system, I’d put Stranges in the Tier 2 category, but because he’s competing with so many forwards with a similar profile, until then, he’s ice skating uphill.
(#12) Artyom Grushnikov
LHD. Age: 20 years. 2021 Draft, 48th overall.
Grushnikov is the opposite of Stranges. Coaches are much more likely to respond to his game, regardless of whether it’s warranted (which is why I personally have Grushnikov ranked lower). Whatever my misgivings, I like Grushnikov’s style. Netfront defenders are rarely also such quality skaters, which indicates to me that conquering the neutral zone is next in his development path. My big concern is this: if he’s a shutdown defender then why didn’t he shut things down? It’s only one sample from one season, but Grushnikov only has one dimension. That dimension needs to be pristine. There’s certainly room for netfront defenders in today’s NHL, but they need to have other dimensions, regardless of what archetype or role they fit into. One thing’s for sure: Grushnikov will have the inside track to making the club if he proves worthy in the AHL. He fits a blueline profile Dallas will lose once Lindell and Hakanpaa’s contracts are up.
(#13) Riley Damiani
Center/Right Wing. Age: 23 years. 2018 Draft, 137th overall.
Damiani continues falling due to the fact that he was a point per game player in the AHL, and has since had two seasons were he fell progressively short of his previous totals. It’s hard to imagine where Damiani even fits in the grand scheme of things. His flexibility to play center and wing is practically standard with Dallas’ current crop. What’s a player like Damiani to do? In his defense, Damiani still has a projectable game. While he may not be as talented as the other forwards in the system, he plays an aggro style that should fit well into a fourth line role. If the coaching staff wants more Dellandreas than Stankovens, Damiani is ahead of the pack in that regard, but he’ll have to prove his rookie year in the American League wasn’t a fluke.
(#14) Matej Blumel
Left Wing. Age: 23 years. Free Agent.
Blumel sits low on this list because of his age, but in terms of raw talent, and NHL projectability, he sits a lot higher. Blumel plays a straight forward, north-south game. He has a plus-shot, and can slide into either the top or bottom six should he prove himself beyond his AHL-caliber peers. His flexibility is what makes more more projectable than many of the others on this list despite their higher ceiling.
(#15) Chase Wheatcroft
Center. Age: 21 years. Free Agent.
Wheatcroft flashed some skill last year in the WHL, but he went nuts with the Prince George Cougars this season, scoring over 100 points. I’m erring on the side of caution with this one. His age and the fact that he was with two of the better forward prospects of the 2023 draft in Riley Heidt and Koehn Ziemmer (both ended up going before the end of Round 3) tells me that Wheatcroft is no different than the Logan Morrisons, and Tye Felhabers of the world, but that kind of production should always warrant attention.
Top 20
Tier 1
1. Logan Stankoven
2. Lian Bichsel
3. Mavrik Bourque
4. Christian Kyrou
Tier 2
5. Ayrton Martino
6. Aram Minnetian
7. Tristan Bertucci
8. Matthew Seminoff
9. Remi Poirier
10. Francisco Arucri
Tier 3
11. Antonio Stranges
12. Artyom Grushnikov
13. Riley Damiani
14. Matej Blumel
15. Chase Wheatcroft
16. Kyle McDonald
17. Brad Gardiner
18. Arno Tiefensee
19. Daniel Ljungman
20. Angus McDonnell
*Matt Murray is the biggest asterisk, here. He didn’t turn pro until 22, and looked decent in the AHL.