With the new season underway and a training camp filled with young players and prospects from juniors and the AHL its an appropriate time to analyse the potential ceiling for the Dallas Stars prospects. It’s also important to analyse what their likely ceiling actually is. It’s important to remember that potential ceiling and likely ceiling are two very different things.
Potential ceiling is the top level that each prospect could reach if everything goes right in their development and they stay on track. For example Jack Campbell has the potential to be an elite starting goaltender in the NHL, his natural talents and skills put him in a place where he could reach that level.
Likely ceiling is where players are, based on their current level of performance, predicted to reach. Most prospects do not reach their potential ceiling but instead are several steps below it. This occurs when everything does not go according to plan, where they hit a rut or suffer a injury.
This is the first post of several looking at the potential and likely ceiling of Dallas Stars prospects. This first post will look at goaltenders, the second at defensemen and the third on forwards.
Note: These ceilings are based solely on my opinion and I could be wrong about them due to limited viewing of these prospects.
Tyler Beskorowany, 22, Idaho Steelheads ECHL, 6″5 205lbs, Drafted 2nd Round, 59th overall 2008 by the Dallas Stars
Potential Ceiling: Backup NHL Goaltender
Likely Ceilling: Career AHL Goaltender
Besko has suffered some setbacks in his development since being drafted in 2008. Though he earned himself a place in the AHL for the 2011-2012 season after a pretty good time in both the ECHL and AHL posting a SVS% of 0.928 and 0.921 respectively. Both him and Richard Bachman had their stats take a significant hit with the Texas Stars poor defensive play last season and their eventual 29th finish in the AHL. With the arrival of Jack Campbell in Texas at the end of the season and the signing of Christopher Nilstorp during the summer he has been pushed further down the Stars goalie depth.
At 6″5 and 205lbs he’s a big goaltender and its this that he uses to his advantage. He’s still a raw prospect but hes got good athleticism and an excellent glove. He has trouble when it comes to handling rebounds and positioning himself for the bad angle shots.
Though he’s still young its becoming more and more unlikely that he will reach the level of a NHL backup goaltender. He’s buried in a system and he’s a RFA at the end of next season. Though he’s been doing okay in the ECHL this season, he’s got a SVS% of .910%. It doesn’t help that he’s been challenged for starting time by Texas Stars signee Josh Robinson.
Jack Campbell, 21, Texas Stars, AHL, 6″2 205lbs, Drafted First Round, 11th overall, 2010 by the Dallas Stars
Potential Ceiling: Elite Starting Goaltender
Likely Ceiling: Starting Goaltender
It was thought by many that Jack Campbell would take the starting job in Texas this season but with the free agent signing of Christopher Nilstorp he’s taken a backup role. It might be good for the young goaltender who has suffered from inconsistency since he was drafted. He’s seen as the Stars future starting goaltender and, despite his inconsistency, will likely still reach that level. It’s far too early too suggest he is a bust as goaltenders take a long time to develop. He might take slightly longer to get to the NHL than expected by some fans but I’m confident that he will there eventually.
He’s a big athletic goaltender and he has excellent reflexes. He’s proven that he can pull it out in clutch games but he’s also proven himself to lose his physiological edge. He should be able to maintain a constant level of confidence and play as he gets older and matures. It will just take a little bit longer than people thought while he matures into a top level goaltender. If he continues as he is currently he will be able to take a place in the NHL within the next few years.
Henri Kiviaho, 18, KalPal J20 Jr A. SM-Liiga, 6″3 183lbs, Drafted Fifth Round, 144th overall, 2012 by the Dallas Stars
Potential Ceiling: Backup NHL Goaltender
Likely Ceiling: Backup NHL Goaltender/Career AHL Goaltender
Theres very little first hand information I can find on Henri Kiviaho apart from his stats and a single analysis of his talent at Hockey’s Future. He’s another big goaltender who can move very well and is meant to be electric in his athleticism. However he is a very young goaltender, still only 18, and a long way from the pros in North America. He’s very raw and this means that its not unusual for him to let soft goals in. His stats in the J20 in Finland are not great currently but hopefully he will continue to develop slowly in Finland. In a few years he might be ready for a role in the SM-Liiga.
Having little information on him means that its hard to make a projection for him. Based on the assumption that he hasn’t been terrible I think its safe to say he still projects at an NHL backup or an AHL career goalie a long time down the line. If Kiviaho develops and based upon the age of other goaltenders if he were to make it it will take between 5-7 years.
Maxime Lagace, 20, P.E.I Rockets QMJHL, 6″2 180lbs, Signed as a Free Agent
Potential Ceiling: Backup NHL Goaltender
Likely Ceiling: AHL Career Goaltender/Backup NHL Goaltender
Maxime Lagace was signed as a free agent in the summer after being passed over in the previous draft. He played in the Stars development camp and on the back of that he was signed by the Stars. He started the season as the starter goaltender for Prince Edward Island Rocket but lost the position to the backup goaltender. He’s not had a great season, even by the QMJHL standards for goaltenders.
He’s a butterfly goaltender with decent reflexes and positioning. Despite his size he has a problem with a compact style and allows shots over the shoulder. Like most young goaltenders he has an issue with rebound control and losing his confidence when a shot goes in. He’s another one who is a long term project who could potentially be a backup goaltender in the NHL if he is lucky. If he gets into the pros though he will likely spend most of his time in the AHL or ECHL.