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Dallas Stars Daily Links: Why Ben Bishop Doesn’t Trust Advanced Stats

Posted on by Kathleen Tibbetts

Ben Bishop has come right out and said it: Goalie stats are junk science, at least at their current stage of development.

What seems to have started as a conversation with ESPN’s Grey Wyshynski about the differences between playing for Ken Hitchcock and Jim Montgomery soon became a discussion about the current failures of #fancystats:

“Last year, we were looking at some of the goalie analytics. And they have, like, high-danger save percentage, low-danger save percentage. If you look at the NHL clips, it has all the goals. We pulled up some of the goals, even on myself, and there are goals that they say are from the red line that are actually from the slot, because they clipped it wrong,” he said. “They’re like, ‘This goal is from a low-danger spot.’ But then when you watch the goal, it’s a tip in front of the net. So it’s clipped wrong.”

The problem is that goalies negotiate their contracts on save percentage:

“I don’t take them too seriously because this is someone’s opinion. Especially those high-danger [saves]. That’s someone who’s looking from the press box that sees a play and has an opinion,” Bishop said. “When it’s some old hockey fan that doesn’t even get the shots right on the game, how are they going to get that right? You go to every different building, and sometimes they count the dump-ins as shots on goals. Well, half the buildings don’t count those, because they don’t know the rules. When you go to some buildings, and they don’t count it, and there are four or five shots that don’t count. … That’s what’s frustrating. That’s what you get paid on. That’s your job.”

A consensus seems to be forming that Bish has a point: There’s too much information the stats community doesn’t have access to yet. Read more. [ESPN]

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Around the League(s)

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Talking Points