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Dallas Stars Daily Links: Reading The Signs In Gemel Smith’s Arbitration

Posted on by Kathleen Tibbetts

It isn’t 100 percent extension anxiety about Tyler Seguin among Dallas Stars fans this summer – suddenly, we also get to worry about Gemel Smith. The fan favorite cleared waivers on Friday, mere days ahead of his arbitration hearing on Wednesday.

It was clearly a power move by the Stars’ front office, and it seems to have worked. Does Smith still have a case to get a raise from his 2017-2018 salary of $650,000? What are the chances it will be a meaningful one?

At The Dallas Morning News, Josh Lile shares the #fancystats that reveal Smith as a good value even at Brett Ritchie money – that is, $1.8 million for 2018-2019. He also shows the reason why they’re not likely to be useful in making his case:

The data collected by Ryan Stimson and Corey Sznajder shows Smith does many things at a wonderfully high level. The only real negative that shows up is that Smith doesn’t shoot enough. Otherwise? He looks pretty elite.

From Corsica, Smith’s expected goal percentage this past season was 55.34%, second on the Stars behind [Ritchie]. The problem with all of this is that the information isn’t from NHL.com so it isn’t going to be admissible in an arbitration hearing.

Josh looked for the comparable players whose numbers can make Smith’s case for him – and found them close to home, among fellow forwards Ritchie, Remi Elie, and Devin Shore:

All four players are between 22 and 24 years old. They’re all right between 10-12 minutes per night of even strength ice time over the last two combined seasons. Prorated over 82 games all four are at 18-20 points per 82 games at even strength. Smith leads in Points per 60 minutes. He starts more frequently in the defensive zone, making those points generally tougher to get since he has more ice to navigate. He and Ritchie have the highest Corsi For % of the group.

Elie ultimately signed for about what Smith was projected to receive. Shore and Ritchie separated themselves from Smith on special teams, but if you’re Smith you can’t control the way ice time is distributed. You’re also very confident that you’re a better player than Elie, or at least should be confident.

There’s more under the paywall. [SportsDayDFW]

For those still trying to parse out the case, this is how other experts read it:

Stars Stuff

Still panicking over the Seguin deal that hasn’t yet materialized? There seems to be a concerted effort to talk the diehards down from the ledge.

What are the odds that Anton Khudobin really is an upgrade over Kari Lehtonen?

In case you missed it: Jamie Benn is a unicorn, and unicorns make their own rules.

Scott Wheeler placed Miro Heiskanen at No. 7 among NHL drafted prospects under 23 and called it an improvement over his previous assessment. (Some people.)

And Victor E. Green is a good dude. Alien. Whatever.

Around the Leagues

The Washington Capitals have re-signed RW RFA Tom Wilson to a multiyear, eight-figure deal that includes a modified no-trade clause. Too much? Adam Gretz breaks it down.

The hockey punditry was, well, let’s say bemused and intrigued.

Another day, another RFA deal: The New York Rangers locked up Blueshirt blueliner Brady Skjei for six years. [TSN]

Not all Rangers fans are sold.

Meanwhile, back at the 2018 NHL Draft, No. 4 overall pick Brady Tkachuk has given himself two weeks to make up his mind.

Elsewhere, No. 7 overall Quinn Hughes is on his way back to Ann Arbor, hoping to avenge last season’s Frozen Four loss to Notre Dame.

Brother acts are prominent in the projected 2019 NHL Draft class. Quinn’s brother Jack – already the consensus No. 1 overall – and Julius Honka’s brother Anttoni are among the high-end players taking part in the 2018 World Junior Summer Showcase.

Corey Crawford has been sidelined with an undisclosed upper-body injury since December 23, 2017. He says he hopes to be ready for training camp, but he hasn’t started skating yet. Are the Chicago Blackhawks in goalie trouble?

Greetings From Scenic Cedar Park

The Texas Stars and the San Antonio Rampage get their rivalry on early in 2018-2019.

Meet former UMass and Tucson Roadrunners D-man Joel Hanley, who will report to Cedar Park on a two-way contract this season.

I thought Mascot Twitter had been too quiet this summer.…

Finally

Yesterday marked a milestone for the great Ted Lindsay, who is now 93 years young. Enjoy this photo of him with the NHL award that bears his name. Happy birthday, Terrible Ted!

Talking Points