It’s a new season on a new site, but we’re back with the same old bold predictions.
The first year was bad. The second year was better. Year three was a slam dunk. And then, after flying too close to the sun, it went straight back to bad again. But hey, remove the existence of the record-setting Boston Bruins and half of the first prediction would have been correct. That counts for something, right?
Before we get into this year’s predictions, let’s review the ground rules:
- These aren’t just bold predictions — they’re bold predictions. Predicting that Jason Robertson wins the Hart Trophy? Tired. Predicting he does it despite being outscored by Roope Hintz? Wired.
- Each prediction is independent of one another, but I won’t make any contradictory picks (e.g. the Dallas Stars win the Central Division and Dallas picks 1st overall). Combinations that are unlikely yet technically possible, however, are fair game (e.g. Dallas wins the Central Division and Dallas doesn’t win a single division game).
- Like year’s past, each prediction will also have an accompanying SUPER BOLD prediction. These are usually silly and serve only as a reminder that this piece isn’t 100% serious. But if I manage to get one right, I become the new NHL commissioner. That would (probably) be a slight improvement.
Alright, enough chit chat — let’s get on with the predictions, from (roughly) bold to boldest:
Prediction #1: Jake Oettinger Wins the Vezina Unanimously
After his phenomenal performance against the Calgary Flames in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, Jake Oettinger was a goaltender on the rise entering last season. He answered expectations by finishing 6th in SV% (.919) and GAA (2.37), T-2nd in Wins (37) and Shutouts (5), and 1st in team points secured (85).
Now, despite coming off a rocky playoff performance almost certainly due to fatigue, expectations are even higher for the young goaltender. The idea that he could finish the season taking home the Vezina Trophy, awarded to the NHL’s best goaltender, is not that far-fetched. As such, it wouldn’t be very bold of me to predict so.
But you know what would be? To say he wins it unanimously. Remember that the Vezina is voted on by the NHL’s general managers — history shows us there will be at least one out there who thinks his goalie is more deserving of the award. After all, Carey Price won the Hart Trophy in 2015, and yet three other goalies received 1st place votes. In fact, in the entire history of the award’s voting (starting in 1981-82), only one goaltender has performed better than Price: Boston Bruins goaltender Pete Peeters, who was a unanimous selection in the 1982-1983 season.
Peeters was 25 at the time, and Oettinger will turn 25 this December. It’s as if it was written in the Stars.
SUPER BOLD BONUS: To make things even spicier, Oettinger will do so without leading the league in Wins, which tends to be general manager’s favorite stat come voting time.
Prediction #2: Jason Robertson Scores 50 in 50
After a slow start last year in which he scored two goals in his first seven games, Jason Robertson went on a bender, scoring 21(!) goals in his next 18 games for a total of 23 in 25. At the time, he was, along with eventual winner Connor McDavid, one of the favorites to win the Rocket Richard Trophy for most goals scored in a season. But then he hit a brick wall, scoring just once in his next 12 — he eventually bounced back, but finished the year with only 46 goals, 18 behind McDavid’s 64.
This year, forget about the scoring slumps, or at least in relative proximity to one another — at some point this season, Robertson will have a 50 game stretch in which he scores 50 goals. To put things into context, that’s a feat that only one player (Auston Matthews, 2021-22) has accomplished since Mario Lemieux did it in 1996-96. And keep in mind that Robertson hasn’t even scored 50 goals in a single season, let alone 32 less games.
Please note, however, that this accomplishment (and thus prediction) is separate from the official “50 goals in 50 games” achievement, which dictates the player must score 50 goals in his team’s first 50 games. Add in the caveat that it doesn’t matter if the player themselves missed any of those games (e.g. due to injury), and that is an even rarer feat only five players across eight seasons have accomplished. So predicting that wouldn’t be bold…
SUPER BOLD BONUS: …it would be super bold! Robertson will become the first official player to hit the “50 goals in 50 games” mark since Brett Hull did it in back-to-back seasons for the St. Louis Blues in 1990-91 and 1991-92.
Prediction #3: Dallas Has Two Rookies Finish Top 5 in Calder Trophy Voting
It’s a frequent joke in this series that no matter what, a Dallas player is incapable of winning the Calder Trophy. But that doesn’t mean we can’t make predictions that fall just short of that scientifically proven impossible goal.
But simply picking a rookie and naming where they finish isn’t bold. But you know what is? Naming that two of them will finish in the Top 5. In a crowded class that includes Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Logan Cooley, and Devon Levi among others, accomplishing such a feat would be very impressive, especially considering the two would likely siphon votes from one another.
But that by itself is not what makes it so bold — it’s that to start the season, Dallas doesn’t even have a rookie on the roster. Which means at some point midseason, two players will have to be called up, stick around, and be good enough to finish in the Top 5. Which players? I don’t know (or rather won’t get that specific), but odds are it would be some combination of Mavrik Bourque, Logan Stankoven, and Lian Bichsel… or will it?
SUPER BOLD BONUS: Obviously neither of the two rookies will actually win the Calder Trophy, but they will win the Calder Cup, after being sent down to finish the year with the Texas Stars.
Prediction #4: Dallas Wins 16 in a Row to Win the Stanley Cup
When it comes to season predictions, people have been very… nice to the Stars. No, “nice” isn’t the right word — “high” would be better. They are being routinely ranked as a Top 2 team in the Central, with one model predicting they finish (tied for) 1st in points and another giving them the second best odds to win the Stanley Cup. In fact, many are predicting them to win the whole thing — they’re the favorite among The Athletic staff, for instance.
But like all of these predictions, what makes it bold is not the result, but rather how we get there. So I’m going to say the Stars make NHL history by becoming the first team to win 16 consecutive playoff games en route to a Stanley Cup championship. To put things into perspective, the 1988 Edmonton Oilers have the fewest number of playoff losses of any Cup champion with just two. A team hasn’t been swept in the Final since 1998 (which was, interestingly enough, the fourth consecutive sweep by the champ). What I’m asking for here is pretty much impossible.
And yet, boldness does not know the meaning of such a word. Unlike years past, I’m all in on the positivity train this year, drinking the Victory Green kool-aid until I can’t taste anything else. Call me a fool, but we’ll see who’s laughing in the end.
SUPER BOLD BONUS: If you read carefully, you’ll notice I never said Dallas wouldn’t lose a game, just that they’d win 16 in a row. That implies a sweep in rounds 2-4, but not the first, where Dallas will instead go down 0-3 before streaking till the Cup parade (and even then…)
Before we wrap things up, feel free to offer your own predictions in the comments below, bold or otherwise. Does Jamie Benn improve upon his bounce-back season from last year? Is everyone wrong and the Stars finish in the Bottom 5? Will the fifth prediction actually be a serious one for the first time ever?
Well, we can at least give the answer to one of those questions, right here and now!
Prediction #5: Dallas Healthy Scratches Ryan Suter
SUPER BOLD BONUS: N/A — we’ve already boldly gone where no man has gone before.