It’s been a while since we’ve done a scoring chances update. The overall scoring chance picture is a little depressing so what better time to review it than a few hours before the Stars take on the lowly Jackets? In January we had an update chronicling the Stars Adjusted Scoring Chances. Those were adjusted for zone starts to try to put players that start primarily in the defensive zone on the same footing as those who start primarily in the offensive zone. Thanks again to George Ays of Blueshirt Banter for doing the legwork to figure out the value of a zone start.
We’ll start with the overall team outlook through 52 games. The table below is how the Stars chances breakdown situationally in 2012:
| P | SC For | SC A |
ESF |
ESA |
PPF |
PPA |
5V3F |
5V3A |
SHF |
SHA |
3V5
SHF |
3V5 SHA |
| 1 | 192 | 204 | 151 | 155 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 162 | 225 | 120 | 165 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | 180 | 178 | 146 | 129 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 540 | 620 | 419 | 457 | 96 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 130 | 0 | 3 |
SC For = Scoring Chances For; SC Against = Scoring Chances Against; ES= Even Strength, PP= Power Play; SH = Shorthanded
The Stars are now being outchanced by 80 for the year. The second period has continued to get worse since the last time I posted updates. The Stars are now -63 scoring chances in the second period. You’ll also notice that the Stars have gone upside down in the first period (this happened over the past week), and they’re in serious danger of going under in the third period in short order.
After the jump you can find the player chart, but it’s somewhat condensed. We’ll only be looking at even strength numbers today to save some time. The first chart is the defensemen. The second chart is the forwards.
EVSCF=Even Strength Scoring Chance For; EVSC+/-= Even Strength Scoring Chance Differential; Adj SC/15 = Adjusted Scoring Chances/15 minutes; Adj SC/60= Adjusted Scoring Chances/60 minutes
| # | P | Player | GP | EVSCF | EVSCA | EVSC +/- | Adj SC/15 | Adj SC/60 |
| 33 | D | GOLIGOSKI | 41 | 153 | 133 | 20 | 0.44 | 1.76 |
| 3 | D | ROBIDAS | 46 | 140 | 142 | -2 | 0.23 | 0.91 |
| 6 | D | DALEY | 49 | 141 | 161 | -20 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| 27 | D | PARDY | 22 | 62 | 62 | 0 | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| 44 | D | SOURAY | 46 | 129 | 145 | -16 | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| 2 | D | GROSSMAN | 48 | 111 | 141 | -30 | -0.21 | -0.85 |
| 28 | D | FISTRIC | 37 | 68 | 84 | -16 | -0.21 | -0.86 |
| 36 | D | LARSEN | 25 | 57 | 68 | -11 | -0.81 | -3.23 |
Alex Goligoski is still the king of the defenders. For every 60 minutes of ice time he’s generating close to two chances. The only other defender above water is Stephane Robidas. Everyone else is well below, and the player drowning the most in this water analogy is Philip Larsen. He’s been protected (rightly) with a large zone start percentage since coming up, and more often than not chances are still coming at him.
The forward picture makes me weep a little…
| # | P | Player | GP | EVSCF | EVSCA | EVSC +/- | Adj SC/15 | Adj SC/60 |
| 14 | F | BENN | 47 | 165 | 95 | 70 | 1.66 | 6.62 |
| 73 | F | RYDER | 52 | 158 | 128 | 30 | 0.83 | 3.32 |
| 17 | F | PETERSEN | 32 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 0.69 | 2.77 |
| 21 | F | ERIKSSON | 52 | 155 | 136 | 19 | 0.66 | 2.64 |
| 29 | F | OTT | 46 | 134 | 115 | 19 | 0.48 | 1.9 |
| 11 | F | DOWELL | 37 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| 23 | F | WANDELL | 47 | 49 | 59 | -10 | -0.24 | -0.96 |
| 16 | F | BURISH | 36 | 59 | 73 | -14 | -0.34 | -1.34 |
| 20 | F | DVORAK | 52 | 94 | 130 | -36 | -0.62 | -2.48 |
| 63 | F | RIBEIRO | 45 | 110 | 147 | -37 | -0.69 | -2.77 |
| 10 | F | MORROW | 43 | 102 | 147 | -45 | -0.89 | -3.55 |
| 24 | F | NYSTROM | 47 | 70 | 107 | -37 | -0.89 | -3.56 |
| 38 | F | FIDDLER | 52 | 77 | 128 | -51 | -0.99 | -3.96 |
| 81 | F | VINCOUR | 20 | 20 | 33 | -13 | -1.29 | -5.16 |
Jamie Benn is still a man among boys. He’s generating 6.62 Adjusted Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time to double second place Michael Ryder. Why is Ryder so close? He’s been on the wing with Benn for a few months. Toby Petersen and his easy ice time still come in third with Loui Eriksson coming in at 4th. Loui was quite a bit higher before the “demotion” to the Mike Ribeiro line. Tomas Vincour is languishing in last at -5.16, but that isn’t necessarily because he’s struggling defensively. We’ve all see his reluctance to shoot, and I imagine that covers a lot of the negative.
Enjoy the game tonight, and we’ll be back in March with another update.