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Dallas Stars Injuries

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player Injury Type Injury Date
Brenden Morrow neck 01/22/2012

What Is The Dallas Stars Power Play Doing Right, And What Can They Improve?

Editor's Note: We're reposting Josh's excellent article from last weekend in case you missed it. This is an incredible piece of analysis on the Stars power play, which has...struggled...this season.

All data as of 3:00 PM Friday 1/20/2012. All numbers via NHL.com and behindthenet.ca.

The Stars power play has struggled this season. They currently sit 25th in the NHL in power play percentage. Compounding the issues are the dual holes in the lineup caused by the injuries to Jamie Benn and Mike Ribeiro. Before the injuries several factors had been cited as major contributors to the Stars' power play woes.

The Stars take too many penalties, which, inevitably means that they will take some penalties on the power play with Sheldon Souray, Brenden Morrow, and Steve Ott taking regular power play shifts. They stand still too often with the extra man instead of working to find open ice without the puck. They're now missing both Benn and Ribeiro. Glen Gulutzan, though, referenced one issue in particular on Thursday that unexpectedly grabbed my attention:

"I think sometimes everyone gets so results based – and it is results based business – however results just don’t always turn on a dime," said Stars coach Glen Gulutzan. "Our power play has created chances. We’ve had guys at the net, we’ve hit posts and they just haven’t gone in. "

This quote struck me on a couple levels. First, he's absolutely right that power plays are measured in terms of results instead of the process the team goes through to create the results. The same criteria, results, is ultimately used in any profession. And, ultimately, when evaluating an organization as a whole it's necessary for the results to be present otherwise watching sports in particular is a pointless waste of time.

However, the process could still suggest that a given team should be getting different results than they are at any given moment. The St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild are perfect examples. Once luck dragons took over they appropriately switched places in the standings. The driving factor being scoring goals is shots (which are driven by scoring chances and Corsi). Shooting percentage and save percentage, over time, have been proven to almost always regress to the mean over time. Some dynasties excluded.

Shots continuously drive scoring. They are the statistical representation of the "process" a team goes about to generate offense. If the Stars process is truly working then the Stars should be generating copious shots with the extra man. Below are the Stars season by season power play shot totals. I used the available five seasons worth of data (so 150 team seasons with 30 teams each playing in the five seasons). PP S/60 is power play shots per 60 minutes. Rank is where the PP S/60 ranks among the 150 team seasons included, and PP% is the power play percentage in that given season.

Year Rank PP S/60 PP%
2010 20th 56.2 18.60%
2011 28th 54.17 17.91%
2009 105th 47.4 15.38%
2012 144th 41.8 14.09%
2008 146th 41.5 18.08%

Notice a pattern? Outside of the outlier 2007/08 season the Stars PP% has dropped in harmony with the amount of shots the Stars power play generates per 60 minutes of ice time. Currently, the Stars power play is one hundred forty fourth out of the one hundred fifty team seasons over the past five seasons in power play shot generation. After the jump I'll test the idea that the Stars power play has been better lately, and look closer at the power play ice time distribution to see if there are any tweaks that could be made to encourage more shooting.

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Dallas Stars Prospect Update: Alex Guptill Impressive, Reilly Smith CCHA Player Of The Week

Usually I like to do these prospect updates at the beginning of the week, since most games in the NCAA and junior hockey comes over the weekend. I got married this past weekend, however, so we'll have a few prospect updates bookend this coming weekend. Hope you guys don't mind too much.

Last week we had a discussion, sparked by a fairly hyperbolic comment by yours truly, about just where the Dallas Stars farm system ranked compared to the rest of the NHL. I stated it had jumped from last in the NHL to top five material, which in hindsight was rightly criticized.

Last month I took a deep lookat the state of the Stars' system itself and how it's evolved under Joe Nieuwendyk, who took a depleted system and has turned a weakness into a potential strength for this team. The reality is that, while the system has certainly improved, the Stars are missing some key components that make this organization's depth truly stand out when compared to the rest of the NHL. That's not to say things can't change as the prospects mature, but right now it's probably safe to say the Stars are closer to middle-of-the-pack than to the top.

More after the jump...

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NHL Playoff Race: Stars Must Collect Their Points From the Right Teams

How many teams are celebrating in this photo?

Last season the Dallas Stars were famously eliminated from the playoffs on the last day of the season, in the final game of the season after a loss to the Minnesota Wild left them on the outside looking in... With 95 points.

They became just the second team ever to miss the playoffs with such a point total. In the post lockout NHL teams have made it routinely with anywhere between 89 and 93 points. It was a cruel fate.

The good news, you say, is that this years pace in the West isn't nearly 97 points, right?

It wasn't last year either. Not on All-Star weekend.

No, on All-Star weekend 2011 the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks and Colorado Avalanche were in a three-way tie for the West's 8th best points percentage at (.560). A pace, which simple math will tell you had the 8 seed on track for 92 points. This year the West's 8th best points percentage is on track for...wait for it...92 points once again at a slightly better .561 (Minnesota Wild).

Glen Gulutzan has said repeatedly that his team needs to be playing their best hockey in February and March. Given what the rest of the West did last year to quicken their pace after the break, 'he ain't lying'. The Predators, Coyotes, Ducks, Hawks, Sharks, Canucks and Kings all upped their points percentage paces after the break last year. The Red Wings were the only team that actually dropped their pace a little and made the playoffs.

The Hawks, Sharks and Kings, all mucking around with the 8th, 9th and 11th best points percentage at the break last year, dramatically increased their play to solidify their spots. The Kings went 19-8-5 after the break last year, the Blackhawks 18-9-5, and the Sharks 23-6-3. That's some good pushing when it counts. Can the Stars push that hard?

Continued after the jump...

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Dallas Stars Daily Links: Jamie Benn Taken Next-To-Last In All-Star Game Draft

Even without his appendix, this man is still underrated.

With these words, Zdeno Chara put an end to Jamie Benn's long night backstage.

"It’s never easy to leave one guy standing, to be the last one," Chara said as he made his selection. "But Jamie really deserves to be picked because he had surgery a couple days ago and he still showed up. That’s a big credit to him. So I am picking Dallas Star Jamie Benn."

Benn was technically the last player selected in the 2012 All-Star draft as Logan Couture was given to Daniel Alfredsson's team by default.

And even though Benn had joked before the game about wanting to be the last pick to be given a free car, afterwards, he said he was happy he didn't have the lonely wait backstage.

"Coming down to the wire it was a little nerve-wracking, but fun at the same time. We’re here for a good weekend and I am looking forward to it," Benn said. "I don’t think [where you get picked] matters. I think just getting the chance to be at an All-Star game is a pretty good honor. For Zdeno to throw out a shout out there was really nice of him."

For more from Benn after the draft, check out the audio posted by the Stars here.

After the jump, a couple Stars notes from the past few days, someone found a white elephant buried under the old Maple Leaf Gardens and more fun moments from the All-Star draft.

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Gameday Thread: 2012 NHL All-Star Game Fantasy Draft

What: 2012 NHL All-Star Game Fantasy Draft

When: January 26, 2012

Time: 7:00 p.m.

TV: NBC Sports Network

Will Jamie Benn go last? That seems to be the big debate, as Benn makes his All-Star Game debut for what we are sure will be many, many more appearances. There will be another "Fantasy Draft' tonight, as the captains choose the teams they want and there seems to be a high probability that Benn, quiet and unassuming, will go last -- and get the big prize for being the "winner".

It was fun to see last year and it was a great chance to see the players unleash their personalities; hopefully it's just as fun this year and we get to see Benn's personality come through a bit more.

Here's the first "video blog" by Benn, just put up by the Dallas Stars.

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TSN: Brenden Morrow "May" Become Available For Trade

ST PAUL, MN - JANUARY 21: Josh Harding #37 of the Minnesota Wild looks on as Brenden Morrow #10 of the Dallas Stars brings the puck around the net in the first period on January 21, 2012 at Xcel Energy Center in St Paul, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

It's seemed that for going on three years now, talk has endlessly swirled around the possibility of the Dallas Stars trading captain Brenden Morrow. The fiery leader of the Dallas Stars is someone who be very valuable to a Cup contending team and could present the final piece to the puzzle for a team hoping to make the long run to the Cup Finals.

Many remember Morrow's play in the 2008 playoffs, when he put this team on his back and carried them all the way to the Western Conference Finals. For that summer, at least, all of the criticisms about his ability as the captain of the team were gone and he was a hero in Dallas once more.

Since that summer, however, Morrow has been on a bit of a rollercoaster. He played just 18 games the following season when a torn ACL cut his year short and he had just 20 goals and 46 points in 2009-10 in 76 games. With Morrow on pace for around 15 goals and 40+ points again this season, it appears that Stars fans are ready to move on from the aging forward -- and see just what sort of assets can be had for what could be a valuable commodity for the right team.

Bob McKenzie, he of TSN, posted this afternoon that such a possibility might exist.

There is certainly some talk within the NHL community anticipating that Morrow "may" become available between now and the NHL trade deadline.

One team executive told TSN that he heard "Morrow might be available" and "we certainly intend to find out if he is."

There are a number of issues with this entire scenario, so let's break those down after the jump.

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Are The Dallas Stars Effectively Using Their Players?

Photo

Note: Perhaps we'll follow this up with a more in-depth statistical look at this issue, but I'm going to refrain from using advanced stats too much with this post. All statistics referenced can be found at behindthenet.ca.

Ever since Glen Gulutzan took over as head coach of the Dallas Stars, he preached a philosophical change from what we've seen in the past. The Stars would become a defense-first team, built from the goal out that would cut down on goals scored while still maintaining pressure up ice. He calls this system "pacey" and "hard to play against", not wanting the Stars to become trap team yet still wanting to maintain defensive discipline.

Considering the defensive issues of the Stars over the past seasons, the new focus on these issues was certainly welcome. He brought with him a new defensive approach as well, shifting from a "man coverage" scheme to one that is more zone-oriented and designed to provide a better transition game for the defensemen. The changes have helped in many ways, especially considering the issues the Stars had in past years in clearing the zone aren't nearly as prevalent this season.

With the departure of Brad Richards, and even with the addition of four new forwards, the Stars were also facing an uncertain future offensively. The Stars would need both Jamie Benn and Mike Ribeiro to provide a solid one-two combination up front for the Stars to have a shot at attempting to replace the offensive production that Richards provided -- especially on the power play.

Through the All-Star break this season, the Stars find themselves currently out of the playoff picture yet still very much alive. Compared to last season, the team is technically allowing more goals per game (2.79 vs. 2.76) -- something that's a bit frustrating considering the defensive changes. What's most frustrating, however, is how the offense has struggled, scoring just 2.56 goals per game -- with the power play falling from 18% to 13.6% this season.

What's the reason behind the drop in offense, something that has cost this team dearly over the course of the season so far? It's not just the Jamie Benn and Mike Ribeiro injuries, as the offense struggled at times with them healthy as well. Let's take a closer look at how the Stars are deploying their players and their lines this season, and perhaps we'll get closer to determining just what is frustrating us the most this season.

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105 comments  | 

Introducing the Defending Big D Mail Bag

The writers at Defending Big D are pleased to announce a new feature to the blog, called the Defending Big D Mail Bag. Got a question you want to ask or a topic you want us to address? You can now drop us an email or send us a tweet, and we'll feature it in a regular column for all to see.

All you need on your end is an email address or a twitter handle. We can be reached on the following accounts:

Email - dbdmailbag@gmail.com
Twitter - @dbdmailbag

The frequency of the posts will be directly related to the frequency of questions we receive, so don't hesitate to drop us a line if there's something on your mind. Questions can be addressed to specific writers or the staff in general, and you might end up getting answers from more than one of us in the process.

We look forward to hearing from you.

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