Two teams look for a win to reverse their recent fortunes as the Dallas Stars take on the Pittsburgh Penguins in Pittsburgh tonight. Although they hold an 8-5-0 record overall, the Stars are looking to pull themselves out of their first mini-slump of the season, having lost three of their last four. The Penguins, on the other hand, are just 3-5-2 in their last 10 games and need to turn to their season around if they want another playoff berth during the Crosby and Malkin era.
Offensively, the Stars and the Penguins match up very similarly. Per Evolving Hockey, both are top ten teams by expected goals for at even strength, but just middle of the pack in actual goals, so finishing has been a bit of an issue for both teams so far this year. On the power play, despite early season struggles, the Stars have pulled themselves out of the bottom 10 in goals and expected goals rates, while the Penguin’s rank just above them in each. The Penguins are led offensively by a trio of aging superstars in Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and Erik Karlsson, while the Stars are led Matt Duchene and rookie scoring leader Logan Stankoven.
The defensive side of the game is where the Stars separate themselves from their competition tonight. At even strength the Stars allow the fourth fewest goals in the league at even strength, while the Penguins are rank thirty-first. By expected goals the gap is closer, but the Penguins are still bottom five by that measure. On the penalty kill, the Penguins have a slightly stronger unit by goals against, but are much better by expected goals. Goaltenders have been difference makers for both teams shorthanded.
Speaking of goaltending, that’s the other major advantage the Stars hold over the Penguins. Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have posted positive Goals Saved Above Expected so far this season. On the Pittsburgh side, the Penguins have gone with a three-headed goalie monster this season, splitting starts between Tristan Jarry, Alex Nedeljkovic, and Joel Blomqvist, with the rookie Blomqvist the only Penguin goaltender to post a positive GSAx.
Expect this game to be decided at even strength. Neither team takes or draws penalties at a high rate and both feature middle of the pack power plays and strong penalty kill units. The key for the Stars will be to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s much weaker goaltending when the Penguins make defensive mistakes, which they almost certainly will.
Dallas Stars Lineup
Lineups via the Daily Faceoff.
Jason Robertson (21) – Roope Hintz (24) – Evgenii Dadonov (63)
Mason Marchment (27) – Matt Duchene (95) – Tyler Seguin (91)
Jamie Benn (14) – Wyatt Johnston (53) – Logan Stankoven (11)
Sam Steel (18) – Mavrik Bourque (22) – Colin Blackwell (15)
Miro Heiskanen (4) – Matt Dumba (3)
Esa Lindell (23) – Nils Lundqvist (5)
Thomas Harley (55) – Ilya Lyubushkin (46)
Jake Oettinger (29)
Casey DeSmith (1)
The Stars look to be sticking with the same line-up the used in Winnipeg. Jake Oettinger gets a chance to bounce back after getting pulled midway through the second period. Historically, he’s been very good in these bounce-back games.
Pittsburgh Penguins Lineup
Drew O’Connor (10) – Sidney Crosby (87) – Rickard Rakell (7)
Michael Bunting (8) – Evgeni Malkin (71) – Bryan Rust (17)
Jesse Puljujarvi (18) – Lars Eller (20) – Noel Acciari (55)
Anthony Beauvillier (72) – Blake Lizotte (46) – Valteri Puustinen (48)
Matt Grzelcyk (24) – Kris Letang (58)
Marcus Pettersson (28) – Erik Karlsson (65)
Ryan Graves (27) – Jack St. Ivany (3)
Joel Blomqvist (30)
Alex Nedeljkovic (39)
Head coach Mike Sullivan experimented earlier this season with putting Crosby and Malkin on the same line, but has returned to each of them anchoring their own line. Blomqvist gets the start for Pittsburgh with Nedeljokovic backing him up and the recently recalled Jarry sitting out.
How to Watch
Tune in to Victory+, at 6:00 pm CST or listen to the radio call on The Ticket.