Two teams in very different phases of the contention lifecycle meet in Dallas tonight as the Cup-hopeful Dallas Stars host an Anaheim Ducks team in the midst of another rebuilding season. Since 2018-19, the Stars hold a 12-2-0 record against the Ducks and are currently riding a four game win streak against their old division rivals.
Over the past week, the Stars’ offensive weapons have come alive, particularly Mason Marchment, who has scored nine points in his last three games, though the entire Marchment-Duchene-Seguin line has been scorching hot. However, the palace intrigue for the Stars has been the rotating healthy scratches and pairing shuffling on the backend. While Pete DeBoer has preferred to keep his defensive pairings consistent during his time in Dallas, he hasn’t been afraid to change things up this season. Brendan Smith entered the lineup in place of Matt Dumba three games ago and has not relinquished his spot since then. Dumba’s return bumped Nils Lundkvist up to the press box, but Dumba spent his return on the third pairing next to Smith, rather than returning to his spot on the top pair. The question of who sits and who plays where will likely be a storyline throughout the season as DeBoer and his coaching staff look to optimize the defense for the playoffs.
For the Ducks, this season has been about seeing growth from their young skaters. Troy Terry leads the way for the Ducks offensively. Unfortunately, second-year players Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov have both struggled in the early season, particularly on the defensive side of the puck. Perpetual trade bait Trevor Zegras is also having a year to forget so far. The Ducks have also had to deal with injuries to some of their key players. Veteran goaltender John Gibson missed the start of the year and has just begun playing games against. Third year center Mason McTavish, a bright spot for the future, and defensive mainstay Cam Fowler are both on injured reserve and will be out tonight, along with offseason addition Robby Fabbri, who underwent surgery on Friday and will be out for six weeks. It’s all added up to another year that sees the Ducks near the bottom of the standings table probably looking at another shot at the draft lottery.
Statistical Matchup
All statistics are courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.
Despite some early season difficulty in finding the back of the net, the Stars still have one of the most potent offenses in the league, as shown by the 16 goals they’ve scored in the past three games. The Ducks, on the other hand, do not. While the Stars’ recent outburst has pushed them into the top 10 for 5-on-5 GF/60, the Ducks sit 30th, just below their hapless upstate rivals, the San Jose Sharks. In Anaheim’s defense, they can claim a bit of poor shooting luck, as their expected goals rate is solidly in the middle of the league. The Stars clearly outclass the Ducks offensively.
Until this past week, offense hasn’t been the calling card for the Stars so far this season, however. Rather, it’s been their stifling defensive play. By 5-on-5 GA/60, the Stars are the third best defensive team in the league, although that drops to seventh in CA/60, and sixteenth in xGA/60. The upshot of this, is that the Stars skaters have been fairly strong at limiting shot quantity against, but have given up higher quality chances than average. Goaltending has been a major part of the Stars’ defensive game. Oettinger and DeSmith’s play has been a major storyline so far this season, and the praise has been justified.
The Ducks have relied on their goaltending even more than the Stars. While they rank just thirteenth in GA/60 at 5-on-5, they are dead last in both CA/60 and xG/60. Rookie Lukas Dostal has been a revelation in the early season and currently leads the league in GSAx.
On special teams, both the Stars and the Ducks are able to generate quantity on the power play, with the Stars ranking second in CF/60 and the Ducks ranking twelfth. However, both teams have also struggled to turn that quality into quantity, ranking just fourteenth and seventeenth respectively in xGF/60. As at even strength, the Ducks have suffered especially badly from poor finishing, either luck or skill, coming in at 30th in GF/60 on the man advantage.
The penalty kill tells a similar story for the Stars as at even strength, with the skating corps effectively keeping shot attempts down, but allowing a bevy of high quality chances against. As at even strength, goaltending has kept the Stars’ penalty kill unit looking sterling. The Ducks penalty kill also matches their even strength unit, but goaltending hasn’t bailed them out when down a man. They rank bottom five in the league in GA/60, CA/60, and xGA/60.
It all sets up a matchup that heavily favors the Stars at 5-on-5 and on special teams. It will be up to the Stars to stay focused on the team in front of them and not get sloppy against an inferior opponent.
What to Watch
- The Ducks give up a lot defensively. This could potentially be a game that gets some of the Stars forwards who haven’t lived up to expectations going. Look for Robertson and Hintz to have a big game against a defense they should be able to run wild over.
- The Stars’ new-look top pairing of Esa Lindell and Miro Heiskanen played over 25 minutes against the Minnesota Wild on Saturday. Expect DeBoer to try to distribute playing time more evenly across all three pairings against a much weaker opponent, especially if Dallas gets out to an early lead.
- The Ducks draw a lot of penalties. Although they haven’t finished their chances, the Stars penalty kill unit has allowed plenty of chances against. A bit of shooting percentage regression for the Ducks or save percentage regression for the Stars could swing the game in a big way.
Dallas Stars Lineup
Lineups according to Daily Faceoff.
Jason Robertson (21) – Roope Hintz (24) – Evgenii Dadonov (63)
Mason Marchment (27) – Matt Duchene (95) – Tyler Seguin (91)
Jamie Benn (14) – Wyatt Johnston (53) – Logan Stankoven (11)
Oskar Bäck (10) – Sam Steel (18) – Mavrik Bourque (22)
Esa Lindell (23) – Miro Heiskanen (4)
Thomas Harley (55) – Ilya Lyubushkin (46)
Brendan Smith (2) – Matt Dumba (3)
Casey DeSmith (1)
Jake Oettinger (29)
Anaheim Ducks Lineup
Frank Vatrano (77) – Trevor Zegras (11) – Troy Terry (19)
Alex Killorn (17) – Leo Carlsson (91) – Ryan Strome (16)
Brock McGinn (26) – Isac Lundestrom (21) – Brett Leason (20)
Cutter Gauthier (61) – Jansen Harkins (38) – Ross Johnston (44)
Pavel Mintyukov (34) – Radko Gudas (7)
Jackson LaCombe (2) – Olen Zellweger (51)
Brian Dumoulin (6) – Drew Helleson (43)
Lukas Dostal (1)
John Gibson (36)
How to Watch
Tune in to Victory+, at 6:00 pm CST or listen to the radio call on The Ticket.