Gimmick content, y’all!
There is a natural ebb and flow to positional groups throughout a season. Teams rarely win because absolutely everything is working, and rarely lose because absolutely everything is not. So, each week, we are going to take a quick look at the Offense, Defense, Goaltending, and Special Teams. Taking a regular, broad look at what’s going on might reveal interesting trends or at least reveal the right scapegoats. Think of this as a primer more than a deep dive, just enough information to make you dangerous.
With one caveat.
For this to be properly gimmicked content, it needs some Stars flavor. When a group plays well, they will be rated “I Like Where We’re At.” When a group plays poorly, they’ll be “Forking Horse Spit.” When it isn’t quite clear, they’ll be “Pesky.” If you know, then you know.
On to week one. This piece covers the first three games of the season (October 10 – 13).
Offense – Pesky
Objectively, the Dallas Stars have scored more goals than the other team all three times. That is kind of the point, but it feels too difficult. Long stretches gummed up punctuated by moments of quality. On the one hand, the scoresheet has all the right names: Marchment (2), Seguin (2), Hintz (1), Benn (1), Robertson (1), Johnston (1), and Steel (1). On the other hand, Dallas is 17th in GF/GP (3.00), 18th in Expected Goals (7.35 per Moneypuck), and 26th on the power play (11.1%). For now, there are plenty of excuses: Mavrik Bourque has not played, Jason Robertson missed training camp, and Joe Pavelski has retired, but things need to get better.
Defense – Forking Horse Spit
But the Stars are 3-0 with a pair of shutouts! You say. How can the defense NOT be an area of strength! You say. Well, defense is not goaltending. Through three games, the Dallas Stars sit 25th in the league with an average of 31.7 shots against per game and 28th in unblocked shot attempts per game (114). High-danger chances against are an issue (32, 20th in the league), and the Stars are underwater in expected goals (-1.67, 27th). They are also already fighting the injury bug, with Matt Dumba managing just four periods of hockey before a lower-body injury put him out of the lineup against the Islanders.
Goaltending – I Like Where We’re At
Three games, two shutouts. It is very difficult to find fault with the Stars’ goaltending so far this season, even if you have to strain to hear me over the sound of pucks hitting the post. Both Jake Oettinger (3.8, 4th) and Casey DeSmith (2.2, 8th) are in the top ten in goals saved above expected. DeSmith’s shutout even came on the second night of a back-to-back. Furthermore – and this ties into the previous section – neither goalie has surrendered a goal on a High-Danger chance. Right now, they are giving the team in front of them a chance to settle in and find its rhythm.
Penalty Kill – Pesky
The Dallas Stars are a top-10 unit by percentage (90.9% – 10 kills in 11 chances), and have only surrendered three high-danger chances while shorthanded. So why just ‘Pesky?’ Only five teams have been short-handed more than the Stars so far this season. Several of the penalties – looking at you Mason Marchment – have also been of the unnecessary variety. Just because you can doesn’t mean you should.
Power Play – Pesky
A single goal on nine opportunities is not good enough for this group (11.1%, 26th in the league). They are at least in the top half when it comes to expected goals (1.57, 15th) and in the top ten when it comes to power plays drawn (9, 9th), but is that really where a squad with this kind of talent should be? To get a little eye-test, Dallas had opportunities to bury the Islanders with a well-timed PPG and could not find the back of the net. On the second night of a back-to-back, it would be great to see the team kill a game.