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Dallas Stars Daily Links: The Offensive Impact Of Joe Pavelski

It’s no secret that the Dallas Stars are desperately seeking scoring. Between a shocking lack of puck luck and the growing pains of yet another new coaching system, the Victory Green gang endured a historic dry streak during the 2018-19 season.

But reinforcements will arrive soon, and Joe Pavelski should be chief among them – if his career averages hold. The Dallas Morning News’ Matthew DeFranks examines the case in a new article:

Dallas was tied for the third-worst offense in the league last season, and became the first team in seven years to rank in the bottom four in scoring in the league and still make the playoffs in a full season. The Stars scored just 209 goals.

Across the last six seasons (since the shortened season in 2012-13), Pavelski has averaged 34.7 goals per 82 games. If we allow for a few missed games and slight regression after shooting 15.1 percent during those years, perhaps we can land on 30 goals as a reasonable expectation for Pavelski’s production.

With the second year of The Process on the horizon, the Stars will also have some year-to-year stability in coaching systems:

In Jim Montgomery’s second year — with different personnel and potentially a changed philosophy on offense — the Stars could be better overall offensively. Plus, their underlying numbers last season suggest a bump in scoring after shooting just 6.87 percent (third-worst) at 5-on-5.

If Pavelski is able to take the Stars from one of the worst offenses in the league to merely an average one, that may be all Dallas needs with Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin in goal.

Matt has more. [SportsDayDFW]


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Around The League(s)

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Finally

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