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Afterwords: Razor-Thin Margins

Credit: Tim Heitman / Dallas Stars

Every time the Vegas Golden Knights scored, it felt like the series was over.

I mean, you might think I would have learned my lesson after Game 4, in which I expressed that exact same sentiment after William Karlsson scored early for Vegas. But this situation was slightly different – the Dallas Stars weren’t coming off of an embarrassing Game 3. Dallas was no longer 0-4 after allowing the first goal. Jake Oettinger had regained the benefit of the doubt.

No, this had everything to do with a simple truth in playoff hockey: When you’re facing elimination, the margin for error is razor-thin.

In elimination games, it doesn’t matter who dominates possession. It doesn’t matter who gets more high-quality scoring chances. At the end of the day, only one stat matters: goals scored. Who wins, and who loses. Whether the series continues, or whether it’s all over for one team.

And so each time Vegas scored, it was hard not to think that that might be the game-winner. Each time Adin Hill robbed a Star – whether Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Joel Kiviranta, or Wyatt Johnston – of what looked like a sure thing, the fear and dread of “that will be the ‘what if’ goal.” Outside of Game 3, each game this series had been decided by one goal, in overtime. Heck, even in Game 3, that first goal might have indirectly led to the Jamie Benn cross-check that seemed to have sunk the Stars season.

But each time Vegas scored, the Stars answered back. First Luke Glendening, on a tip from a Thomas Harley shot that surely made Joe Pavelski proud. Second was Jason Robertson, in yet another impressive feat in hand-eye coordination as he tracked a blocked shot and immediately pounced on it for the goal.

And as for all of those highlight-reel saves by Hill? Perhaps no moment in last night’s game encapsulates tonight’s theme better than the game-winner from Ty Dellandrea:

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No offense to Dellandrea, but that should have never been a goal. No goaltender, let alone one who was on fire all night (and postseason), should be letting in that shot. And yet he did. Hill let in one soft goal, and that ended up being the difference maker.

Sure, Dellandrea scored another one just a minute and a half later. But if he didn’t score earlier, who knows if that play ever materializes? Maybe it’s Vegas who instead gets the go-ahead goal later on, or perhaps the game goes into yet another overtime.

We’ll never know what might have happened. Just like we’ll never know what might have happened had Dallas taken care of business and won Game 2. It’s easy to say Dallas would have a 3-2 series lead instead of a deficit, but that’s assuming Game 3 still goes down like it did. And if Game 3 doesn’t happen…well, you get the picture.

So none of those “what ifs” matter. The fact of the matter is, Dallas managed to score when it mattered most and win Game 5. And the fact of the matter is that, despite winning two in a row, the Stars are still down 3-2 and on the brink of elimination. As my friend and colleague David Castillo wrote, “Vegas can still afford to miss. Dallas can’t.”

And yet… dare I say I’m optimistic? We keep hearing those stats about how only four teams have come back from down 3-0, and none in the third round or greater. We talk about how Vegas is such a great team, and how beating them four times in a row is just too much of an ask. But that whole narrative is a bit misleading in my eyes, for two reasons.

First of all, Vegas being a great team doesn’t prevent them from getting (reverse) swept. The Carolina Hurricanes were a great team. They got swept. The Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins are/were great teams. They each lost three in a row. The Toronto Maple Leafs and New Jersey Devils were great teams. They also lost in just five games. Sure, Vegas being so good makes it harder for them to lose four in a row, but it’s not impossible.

Secondly, the Dallas Stars don’t need to win four games in a row anymore. They just need to win two. I mean sure, winning two more in a row would give a grand total of four, but my point is that the Stars are no longer down 3-0; they’re down 3-2. And the odds for winning a series while down 3-2 are much, much higher, regardless of the round played in.

How Dallas got to 3-2 only matters a little bit. Heck, you might even argue that Dallas is, oddly enough, better off having gone down 3-0. After all, they’re heading back to home ice after having won the last two games. They were clearly the better team in their last win, and arguably have had the edge (if not the bounces) all series long. And to top it all off, they’re getting their captain back for Game 6.

The Stars have all of the momentum right now. Granted, to quote David once more, “momentum is fickle in hockey” – were it absolute, Vegas would have handily won Game 4 and swept Dallas – but it’s still a very real thing. And while I hate talking in clichés, there’s something about having to play with your back against the wall, unable to make the slightest mistakes, that can elevate your game. I’d argue that’s very much what we’re seeing right now from Jake Oettinger.

Will Dallas win Game 6 and force Game 7? I’m not sure. But the mood is no longer as glum as it was after Game 3, in which I, and pretty much the entire NHL, was ready to give up on the Stars’ season. There is genuine excitement and hope in the air for Stars fans heading into Monday.

Win or lose Game 6, you can’t take that away from us.


Some final notes to take us home:

• Like I said, Oettinger is coming up big with his back against the wall. Despite a rough Round 2 and start to Round 3, he is one of the biggest reasons why Dallas is still alive in this series.

Heading into Game 4, I pointed out how Oettinger had a .953 SV% in his three postseason games facing elimination. Adding the last two contests in, that save percentage has unfortunately dropped a whole fourth of a percent down to a .949.

If Oettinger continues to outduel Adin Hill (imagine saying that heading into the season) and wins this series for Dallas, that rough stretch of 10 games will be but a footnote on his postseason.

• Oettinger wasn’t the only star player to build off of a monstrous Game 4 – Jason Robertson was also a force to be reckoned with last night, though he had only a single goal to show for it, giving him five (!) for the series thus far.

After Game 4 against the Seattle Kraken, I wrote this about Robertson:

So if I was Dave Hakstol, or any of the other remaining head coaches looking to advance, I would be praying every night that Robertson doesn’t figure things out. Because if the Stars get 109 point Robertson back? With how the rest of this team is currently playing? Just try and take the Stanley Cup from them.

Sure enough, Vegas is getting a first-hand look at how terrifying peak Jason Robertson is. Maybe it’s too little, too late, but Robertson, along with Oettinger, might drag Dallas to the Stanley Cup Final.

• As fun as it is to talk about the big name players delivering when it matters most, full credit to the Stars’ depth this game. Although I didn’t mention it in my Afterwords, the fourth line was really solid in Game 4, especially Fredrik Olofsson. They had an even better showing in Game 5 – not only did Luke Glendening score, but at one point the ESPN broadcast pointed out that they had had eleven (!!!) shot attempts against Vegas.

Honestly, with Jamie Benn coming back into the lineup Monday, I’m not sure who  you take out. It’ll probably be Olofsson, but do you really want to mess with that line right now? After Game 3 and the start of Game 4 you might have thought Ty Dellandrea, but he drew the overtime penalty later that game and then scored twice tonight to keep the season alive. That would leave Joel Kiviranta, but he’s also been solid for Dallas thus far.

All in all, struggling to decide which of your depth forwards to take out of the lineup is a nice problem to have.

• Finally, Thomas Harley logged 18:23 time on ice. It was still only 5th out of the defensemen, but he was only three minutes behind Ryan Suter for 2nd place. He earned those minutes as well, having graded as the best skater of the night according to GameScore.

Slowly but surely, Pete DeBoer is trusting Harley with more ice time. He even spent a few shifts alongside Miro Heiskanen. Perhaps a sneak preview for next season?

Talking Points