My hot take from the second round series between the Dallas Stars and the Winnipeg Jets? Connor Hellebuyck played very well.
He was one of if not the key story beats almost every single night, in large part due to his horrendous performance on the road in Round 1 that got him yanked all three games in St. Louis. He was the basket case of a goaltender who just couldn’t show up when it mattered in the playoffs, leaving his team out to dry year after year.
But at the end of the day, he had, what, one bad game this series (Game 3)? Outside of that, he had two shutouts, two games in which he allowed only a single Stars player to score (granted both scored three times a piece), and then a fantastic performance in tonight’s 2-1 overtime nailbiter. He finished the series with a .905 SV%, which doesn’t sound too impressive until you note that that would rank 6th among goaltenders this postseason, and fourth among those who made the second round.
And yet, when next year’s playoffs roll around, no one is going to be talking about Hellebuyck’s strong finish to this playoff run. No one’s going to call back to how he allowed just two goals in his previous two games, or his two shutouts. They’re going to instead point at his overall save percentage, worst in the NHL this postseason. They’ll talk about his (and the Jets’) ten game road losing streak. They’ll prattle on yet again about how if he can just get the monkey off his back and figure things out, that it could finally be the Jets’ year.
That’s what happens when you don’t win, which many people say is the only stat that matters. So why did he lose exactly, despite his strong finish? We could get list off a bunch of reasons and beat around the bush, but it’s almost 1 AM as of me writing this, so let’s get straight to the point: Hellebuyck and the Jets lost the series not because he wasn’t good, but because he wasn’t good enough. To put it plainly, he wasn’t the best goaltender this series.
Jake Oettinger was.
Yes, that Jake Oettinger. The one who is Hellebuyck’s backup for the United States in international competition. The same Oettinger who entered the postseason with questions about his own playoff ability. After all, he set such a high bar in his first playoffs as a starter when he posted a .954% in a Round 1 loss against the Calgary Flames, only to follow it up the next year with a rough performance that saw Dallas eliminated by who an arguably “inferior” goaltender in Adin Hill.
That was then followed up by Oettinger’s statistically worse regular season in the NHL, creating doubts about his ceiling as the Stars’ starter. Even when he put in a much better playoff performance, it was still ultimately viewed as falling short of the Calgary bar, and once again he failed to win the goaltending battle and lost to a “worse” goaltender in Stuart Skinner. When the Stars nevertheless signed him to an 8x$8.25M extension that summer, needless to say there were a lot of skeptics. A lot of skeptics.
And yet, here we are again, watching the Stars advance tow the conference finals for the third consecutive year. Only this time, it’s not in spite of Oettinger, or only partially thanks to him — no, Oettinger has been the biggest reason for the Stars’ success save Mikko Rantanen. He has been solidly the best goaltender in the NHL this postseason except for maybe Frederick Andersen, though I would argue that Andersen has faced off against much more lax competition (and yes, that includes the Washington Capitals).
Perhaps no game better encapsulates Oettinger’s performance as a whole than tonight’s win over Winnipeg. Like I said, I felt Hellebuyck played excellent — he was calm in net all night, made key saves when needed, and posted a highlight or two. Oettinger did all of that and then some. If you were to ask anyone who they would want in net in a 1-1 playoff overtime game, they would probably pick Hellebuyck over any other goalie, despite his postseason reputation. Oettinger might not even crack the Top 5.
And yet, as the Dallas crowd frequently reminded us this series, “Otter” was better. He was the one who stood on his head and came out on top. If Round 1 against the Colorado Avalanche finally saw Oettinger win the goaltending matchup against an “inferior” goalie in Mackenzie Blackwood, then he followed it flawlessly by winning the matchup against the best goaltender on the planet. He might not be scoring hat tricks and breaking NHL records, but he deserves full credit for why the Stars have survived two tough playoff matchups despite still not having some of their best players at full health.
So stick taps to the Stars’ best player on the ice tonight, and really this series as a whole. You earned the win, Jake.
• Last bit on Oettinger: this game was his 60th postseason playoff game (58th start). That’s two more than Hellebuyck and puts him in sole possession of 52nd all time out of all goalies. Just one win in Round 3 and he’s guaranteed to crack the top 50.
Oh, and he’s still only 26 years old. Yeah.
• Of course, that’s what three consecutive Western Conference Final appearances will do for ya. Mad props to what Pete DeBoer and his coaching staff have accomplished, not to mention General Manager Jim Nill. There are teams in the league that would kill just to make one playoff round, let alone win two in three consecutive years. Talk about high bars — that’s just absolute insanity
• I focused on the goaltending matchup in the main body, but it would be remiss of me to not highlight those sweet sweet goals. First up was Sam Steel with his absolute rocket of a shot that beat Hellebuyck (you guessed it) glove high and left him frozen in disbelief for a solid 3-4 seconds. That goal was exactly what the Stars needed, and not just because they hadn’t scored in over four periods and the Jets had drawn first blood just six minutes prior. No, the biggest takeaway for me was that it was textbook depth scoring, the very thing that Dallas has been lacking this postseason despite their riches in forward talent (more on that later).
As for the second goal… I mean, take a bow, Thomas Harley. He’s been getting a lot of recognition for his performance this postseason, in large part due to the absence of Miro Heiskanen (until recently), and yet I still feel he isn’t getting enough credit. That goal was also just what the Stars needed, for pretty much the opposite reason of Steel’s: it was a case of one of the Stars’ top players stepping up to the plate and getting the job done to win the series.
(By the way, I totally called that goal, down to how much it felt like John Klingberg’s series winner in 2019. Just ignore that I thought the final score would be 3-2, or that it was a prediction for Game 7 against the Avalanche, not Game 6 against the Jets).
• When writing these pieces, I often fall back on shots on net to help illustrate the offensive pressure one team had compared to another. The reason for that is it’s an official stat that is quick to look up and that all readers inherently understand, rather than digging into expected goals and other “fancy” stats. It’s not perfect by any means, but it paints a clear enough picture most games.
Tonight was not one of those games — officially, the Stars managed just six shots on goal in the first period, even though they spent the whole frame dominating in the offensive zone. Just over four minutes into the second, ESPN put a stat on the screen showing that while the shots-on-net were 5-to-6 in favor of Dallas, the shot attempts were 13-to-30.
Would I have liked to see the Stars score more goals? Yes. Did they fail to due to a lack of trying? Heck no.
• For the third consecutive season, the Stars will play in the Western Conference Final. For the second consecutive season, the Stars will play the Edmonton Oilers. Ugh.
Stars fans will remind you that this Stars team is a lot different than the one from last year. Oilers fans will tell you the exact same thing about their squad. Nevertheless, there will be plenty of parallels drawn between this year and last, and the Stars will have to overcome the struggles that downed them last time around.
If there’s any consolation, I truly do feel like there are two major differences on the Stars end that play to their favor. The first is Oettinger’s performance this postseason, which I already said I wouldn’t talk anymore about. The second is that unlike last year, the Stars have a player who is able to step up and throw the team on his back in Mikko Rantanen, who can score those goals even if/when the offense dries up. That’s not to say getting some of that fabled depth scoring wouldn’t go a long way in winning the series, but the Stars have sorely been lacking the sort of X factor that the Oilers have had every year in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Now they finally have it.
• Finally, a few words about Mark Scheifele. I don’t want to repeat ad naseum what everyone else has been saying, but I truly feel awful for him. As a (relatively) new father, I’ve grown to have a much deeper appreciation of what being a dad is all about, and have grown closer to mine as a result. I can’t even imagine what it would be like to lose him suddenly, never mind go out and play in a road elimination game in front of the entire world that next evening.
So when Winnipeg scored first, I was hearbroken. But then I saw that it was Scheifele, and after thinking, “of course it was,” I honestly couldn’t help but smile a bit and think, “at least it was him.” And that handshake line… man that was both heartwarming and hard to watch at the same time. Great game from a great player, and my deepest condolences to him and his family.