On some level, the outcome of Game 7 between the Dallas Stars and the Colorado Avalanche might as well have been predetermined.
After all, this is Stars head coach Pete DeBoer we’re talking about, who entered the game with an absurd 8-0 record in Game 7s. The same DeBoer who had already thrice ended Colorado’s season, once each with three different teams. A Colorado team who, each time, was coached by Jared Bednar, who entered the game with his own perfect record for Game 7s… a 0-3 winless streak, that is. Which sounds bad enough until you recall that Colorado had also dropped three straight Game 7s before that, with their last Game 7 win(s) coming all the way back in 2002.
So yeah, even if history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it does tend to rhyme. And so despite how Game 6 went, Stars fans had a reason to be optimistic heading into Game 7. And despite how Game 6 went, Avalanche fans had a reason to be pessimistic instead. Look at just the final score and you could be excused for thinking the outcome was never in doubt.
But of course, that’s not how things actually unfolded. First, there was the shorthanded goal by Josh Manson halfway through. In what was clearly going to be a very close game, that was extremely frustrating to see, a play that should have never happened. Even more soul-crushing was that this was the second time the Stars had allowed a short-handed goal this series, which gave me the same feeling as placing a “Kick Me” sign on my own back.
But the true back-breaker was the Nathan MacKinnon goal off the delayed penalty to start the third. That’s when I knew — not thought, but knew — that history had just been defied: Dallas was losing this game and the series as a whole. It was well fought, but ultimately the Stars were to be done in not by the lack of Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, but the inability to put pucks in the net in a series just begging to be a shootout. As I kept watching the third period, the Afterwords was practically writing itself in my head (truth be told, it started essentially the exact same way).
But liberation, thy name is Mikko Rantanen. If Game 6 was almost how the Stars’ postseason plan was supposed to go, Game 7 was the delayed gratification. The Stars’ superstar deadline addition, acquired to be the elite playoff performer to put them over the edge, strapped his new team to his expletive back and more or less single-handedly ended the playoff run of the team he had spent his entire career with, the one who traded him away mid-season despite being considered a Stanley Cup Contender himself.
It started with the first tally, in which Rantanen entered the offensive zone, skated off towards the point as Sam Steel ended up tying up two Avalanche players, and then almost effortlessly sniped the puck past Mackenzie Blackwood, off the crossbar, and behind the red line. As every Stars fan in the arena leapt to their feet, you could just feel every Stars fan at home suddenly lean forward on their couch, or stop in place as they were heading to the bathroom, or yell at their best friend to not take a single step out of that kitchen.
Then there was the game-tying power play goal, in which Rantanen entered the offensive zone, proceeded to effortlessly skate past three Avalanche players who just… let him pass for some reason, and then wrapped the puck around the net for the goal. Granted, he needed a little help from Sam Girard’s skate to bank it in, but given the kind of puck luck that went against the Stars in Game 6… that was sort of due, wasn’t it?
It was then that, against all rational thoughts screaming at me to the contrary, that I realize I was wrong: the Stars were going to win. We were in the middle of watching a comeback of epic proportions by Dallas, and a playoff choke for the ages by Colorado. Indeed, heading into the game, only three teams had ever come back to win a Game 7 after being down multiple goals in the third period, and none of them had done so in regulation.
But guess who was the coach of one of those three teams? Pete DeBoer. And guess who on the Stars already had a Game 7 game-winning goal on their (relatively) short resume? Wyatt Johnston. When Jack Drury went to the box for a tackle holding on Tyler Seguin that even a ref swallowing his whistle couldn’t ignore, the Stars immediately punished him for it: Rantanen (of course) to Matt Duchene to Johnston, who could not miss with that wide open net.
Just like that, with less than four minutes left, the Stars were poised to advance to the second round. Still plenty of time for the Avalanche to tie things back up, but it was not meant to be — despite drawing an offensive zone faceoff with 2:33 left to go, Bednar didn’t pull Blackwood for the extra skater for another minute or so. And while the Avalanche had some great looks to close out the game, it was ultimately the Stars who ended up scoring with an empty netter.
Oh, and that goal was scored by Rantanen. Who scored his first career playoff hat trick. Who scored the first third period hat trick in a Game 7 in NHL history. Who notched his fourth point of the night, giving him eight in the last two, 11 in his last three, and 12 for the playoffs at large, good for — wait for it — first in the NHL.
If you were pitching a storyboard for Hollywood, you would have been laughed out of the room and never worked in town again.
But as we routinely see time and time again, reality is often stranger than fiction. And so against the odds, the Stars have survived a tough first round matchup against a recent Stanley Cup winner in Game 7 for the second consecutive year. Their opponent is yet to be determined, as the other Central Division series is the only other one to go to seven games this first round. Dallas will either draw the Winnipeg Jets, the President’s Trophy winner who have pulled possible Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck three(!) times this series, or the St. Louis Blues, the second-worst team of the playoffs in terms of points who keep winning anyways.
No matter who the opponent is, you can’t really complain, if anything because the Stars have lived to fight another day.
• Much has been said about DeBoer’s success against the Avalanche (that’s now four times he’s ended their season in the last seven years). But overlooked in that is that the Stars have now eliminated the Avalanche in their last three straight matchups over the past six years. They’re now 5-2 against Colorado all-time, their only series wins coming the seasons directly before and after the 2004-05 lockout (the other two Stars’ wins were in the Western Conference Finals in 1999 and 2000).
I wonder how much heavy lifting that 2022 Stanley Cup is doing when it comes to evaluating the Avalanche’s post season success. Because since the debut of Cale Makar, I think you could argue the Avalanche have been the preseason favored to win the Central if not the West practically every single year, and yet they have one playoff run past the second round to show for it. And again, they’ve been eliminated by the Stars specifically in half of those runs.
Of course, flags fly forever — Colorado fans might be frustrated, but they’re certainly not complaining about a Stanley Cup win.
• Biggest difference maker this series? The special teams, or rather the Stars’ penalty kill. It’s important to note that, before their seven-game collapse to end the regular season, the Stars’ unit was the best in the business, so it’s natural they put up a great performance against the Avalanche.
Still… 3-for-22 on the series for Colorado? When you have that level of offensive talent at your service? That’s just rough. I mean, their penalty kill managed to score almost as many goals! It gets even tougher to swallow when you realize that all three of those goals came from Nathan MacKinnon, and that’s not even counting his goal tonight off the delayed power play!
• Speaking of MacKinnon, he’s one of only a couple of Colorado skaters who actually showed up this series — before Rantanen put the Stars on his back, MacKinnon had tied Connor McDavid for a league-leading 11 points in the postseason, and still leads with a whopping seven(!) goals in seven games. The next highest Avalanche scorer? Logan O’Connor, who hasn’t scored more than 26 points in his NHL career, with six in seven (which, you know, credit where due).
Yeah, that’s right: MacKinnon scored more goals than any of his teammates scored points.
Of course, I did specify skaters — Mackenzie Blackwood also deserves a stick tap for his performance against Dallas. Yes, I thought he wasn’t as good as everyone claimed he was in Games 1-4. Yes, he more or less laid an egg in Games 5 and 6, getting pulled in the first and needing puck luck plus incredible offensive assistance to secure the win in the latter. But I believe he truly played great in Game 7, and for the longest time I thought he was going to seal the deal with a shutout when his team needed him most. Alas, it was not meant to be.
• Finally, let’s have a bullet point talk about Dallas rather than Colorado — overall, I felt this series went about as well as you could have reasonably expected. The Stars’ depth proved to be a key edge, Jake Oettinger played anywhere from good to great night-in and night-out, and while it took them several games to get going, the Stars’ top forwards showed up big the last three games.
Given how shaky the Jets have looked in Round 1 and the Blues’ established underdog status, you have to feel good about Round 2 no matter who the Stars face (although I personally think Hellebuyck would magically regain regular season form if he happened to be playing Dallas). You would probably feel even better (if not outright ecstatic) were Jason Robertson or Miro Heiskanen to return, but I’m not holding my breath on either. Both are practicing, which is good, but DeBoer didn’t even try to play mind games when he flat out said neither would be playing in Game 7 well in advance of puck drop. That to me indicates they need more time before getting thrust back into playoff hockey.
Good thing Rantanen and co. bought them at least another week or so then.