Two years ago, I got to go to a Western Conference Final game for the first time in my life when the Dallas Stars took on the Vegas Golden Knights (I didn’t get a chance in 07-08). I went home without being able to celebrate a single goal. Thankfully, I would later get a second chance as the Stars forced Game 6… only to not get to celebrate a single goal and instead watch the Stars get eliminated on home ice.
Last year, I was able to try for a third time as the Stars took on the Edmonton Oilers, and they not only scored, but won too! But after taking scoring five goals in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead, the Stars managed only four total in three consecutive losses as they were eliminated in six games once again.
That’s two consecutive playoff series in which the Stars’ offense dried up down the stretch, which ended up costing them. And as I watched the Stars get shutout 4-0 by the Winnipeg Jets for the second consecutive road game, the game itself coming off of a win in which a single player scored all three goals… well call me a pessimist, but it’s hard not to start worrying we’re seeing the same verse played out a third time.
It would be one thing if the Stars simply couldn’t solve Connor Hellebuyck, almost guaranteed Vezina Trophy winner and possible Hart Trophy winner. Instead, it simply felt like the Stars didn’t put any real pressure on him until the final minutes of the game. Consider that they only managed nine shots on goal throughout the first two periods, whereas Winnipeg managed 11 shots in each. That doesn’t exactly seem like an ideal strategy when you’re playing against a goaltender struggling this postseason.
Meanwhile, Dallas wasted a solid performance from arguably one of the best performing goalies left in the postseason (whatever Stuart Skinner did his past two games notwithstanding). Despite being so badly outshot through 40, the Jets still only had a 1-0 lead, and that was only because of a bad luck bounce of the puck off of Thomas Harley’s skate. That was Oettinger’s only “blemish” at even strength last night, and he was perfect at 5-on-5.
Of course, that still leaves three tallies unaccounted for, specifically an empty netter and two power play goals. Dallas has had the edge in special teams all series long, which was a big reason why they were able to take a 3-1 series lead. Well unfortunately, that all came crumbling apart last night, with Dallas going 0-for-4 with the man advantage while Winnipeg went 2-for-5. Heck, if you wanna get real pedantic, none of their goals came with only 10 skaters on the ice, which doesn’t account for just special teams but sounds cool when you say it out loud.
I think the two power plays that sting most of all were the 5-on-3 and the Stars’ final one. The 5-on-3 should have never happened, with the Stars’ star penalty killer in Esa Lindell taking a bad tripping penalty 11 seconds into a powerplay also caused by a bad tripping penalty by Alex Petrovic. That was just asking for trouble from the league’s top regular season power play unit, and the Stars paid dearly. And as for the Stars’ swan song, it was a chance to get on the board and possibly swing momentum the other way, even if it would have still likely been all in vain. Alas, a goal was not meant to be, which is probably for the best given the optics of Jamie Benn punching Mark Scheifele in the face and the Stars managing to walk away with a power play (as over-simplifying as that is).
Still, not all is doom and gloom. The Stars still have a series lead, with a chance to eliminate the Jets on home ice. The Jets, by the way, have yet to win a road playoff game this postseason, going 0-5 while allowing 25 goals (and that’s without any empty net goals being scored). That helps drive home the point I made all the way back after Game 1: stealing home ice as the lower seed is huge, because all you have to do is take care of business at home and you’re golden.
That being said… if Hellebuyck and the Jets finally shake their road demons and force a Game 7, I’m not sure anyone in Dallas is going to be feeling optimistic. But we’ll burn that bridge if we get there, which hopefully is not the case.
• Remember a few years back when literally every Tyler Seguin shot rang off the post? I’m not exaggerating either — I’m reasonably confident that it was literally every single Tyler Seguin shot. Anyways, that’s all I could think of when Seguin hit iron in the second(?) and failed to tie up the game 1-1. That was probably the biggest missed opportunity of the game, given how differently the game might have gone from that point on.
Not that I’m blaming Seguin, of course — he did what he was supposed to and beat Hellebuyck high glove (of course), it just didn’t convert. But in a game where Dallas didn’t seem to get a whole lot of high danger chances (Thomas Harley’s opportunity is the only other one that sticks out), it just stings.
• I felt Miro Heiskanen looked a lot more like his usual self this game, although still nowhere close to 100%. The consensus around the substack-sphere is that Dallas should probably move back to a 12-6 for Game 6, and I agree with them. The Stars have already been playing Heiskanen the fourth most on defense regardless, so I would think they could easily manage him on a full pairing while still sheltering the third as desired.
That means Petrovic slides out, but who comes back in? I would have to think (and favor) Colin Blackwell, but Pete DeBoer could opt for Oskar Bäck instead. I would hate to see the Stars Discord if that happens, but-oh who am I kidding, the Discord discourse would be hilarious.
• Back to the Jamie Benn punch: I have mixed feelings. On one hand, it’s playoff hockey, tensions are high, and it was during a large scrum where almost anything goes. On the other hand, it was still uncalled for and shouldn’t have happened. The league seemed to agree, leveling on Benn the strictest, most severe punishment that they are allowed to dish out in the postseason: a $5,000 fine, the maximum allowed under the CBA.
(Have I made that joke before? I’m pretty sure I made that joke before.)
I think what leaves me with the sourest taste in my mouth is that, again, the Stars ended up getting a power play after the whole scrum was settled. This is one of those rare (and I mean very rare) cases where I think some “management” by the refs is desired, rather than just strictly calling what they perceive as penalties. Did only Benn deserve a penalty compared to two Jets players? You can make that argument. Do you really want to give a power play to the team who’s captain you just ejected for a punch to the face, who is down 3-0 in the dying minutes of the third, when those two Winnipeg penalties aren’t exactly inexcusable? Probably not.