I came to the realization shortly before the season that I never actually wrote about my thoughts on the Pete DeBoer firing.
I meant to after the news broke, but was rather busy at the time. So I decided to wait until after the Dallas Stars hired his eventual replacement, except when they did, I was rather busy at the time. So I decided to wait until after the draft and the Stars free agency moves, except by then, I was… well, you get the picture.
For the record, I stand by what I wrote after the Stars got eliminated — I did not want the Stars to fire DeBoer, nor did I think it was even a remote possibility. Three consecutive Western Conference appearances is something most teams would kill for, and three straight exits in those rounds is not, by any means, signs of a “hump” that you “can’t get over.” Doomerism was running abound once more, and I wasn’t having any of it.
However, I should have added a qualifier: that I did not want the Stars to fire DeBoer, nor did I think it was even a remote possibility, for his on-ice results. I far underestimated the backlash he would get from the players for throwing Oettinger under his own bus and then backing over him slowly, nor did I expect it would be a “last straw” that would ignite additional complaints to Jim Nill if reports are to be believed (which, given DeBoer’s track record of short head coaching stints, maybe shouldn’t have been a surprise).
At the end of the day, it was clear he lost the locker room. And I’ve always believed that once that happens, in any sport mind you, every day that goes by without you getting fired is a day wasted delaying the inevitable. There is no coming back from that, and so Nill and the Stars absolutely made the correct call in pulling the plug on the DeBoer experiment, results be darned.
Now, that of course meant finding a replacement, and without rehashing my now pointless opinions on the matter, let’s just jump straight away to how the Stars (re-)hired Glen Gulutzan. Which was… a choice? I don’t mean that in a bad way, mind you — I don’t blame Gulutzan for his lack of success in Dallas the first time around, and he definitely deserved getting another head coaching gig. It’s just that the hire didn’t really move the needle for me either way, a shrug of the shoulders. It was the exact same reaction I had, ironically, to the Stars originally hiring DeBoer.
So when I realized I never wrote about the coaching change, I decided to theme my first Afterwords of the year on whether or not the Stars looked different under Gulutzan. Except I didn’t watch any preseason games, because I don’t like to was rather busy at the time. So I’d just wait till after the season opener, except I was rather busy at the time. Which meant it’d get delayed until after Game 2, except by then… well, deja vu and all.
But now I have the time, so here we are: rather than talking about last night’s 5-2 win over the Minnesota Wild by itself, let’s go over first impressions from the Stars’ first three games of the season under their (not so) new head coach.
• The ESPN broadcast, for all its flaws, pointed out an incredible statistic last night that I could scarcely believe, so much that I had to go look it up because there was no way it could possibly be true: the Stars had scored first in each of their three games this season.
Okay, I know, I know, that’s laying on the sarcasm a bit too heavily. Except, I’m not sure if I’m actually being sarcastic? Remember, this was a team that, last postseason, scored first just three times in eighteen games(!!!), once against the Colorado Avalanche, twice against the Winnipeg Jets, and, well, you do the math for the Edmonton Oilers. It was extremely frustrating to watch and, while the Stars came back to win back exactly half of those other 12 games, it was a large reason the Stars ended 9-9 on the postseason with another third round exit.
So you can imagine my surprise and delight that this Stars team, gifted with a plethora of quality offensive players, is actually scoring, earlier and more often. It reminds me of Robert Tiffin’s interview with Gulutzan before the season (which you should read if you haven’t already), in which Gulutzan talked about how he didn’t want Dallas to be a “counter-punch” team, a sentiment he echoed to reporters after their practice on Monday. You can interpret “counter-punch” multiple ways depending on the situation and context, but generally speaking, I think it’s fair to say it’s about exerting your will on the game and forcing your opponent to adapt, come back from behind, etc.
That’s something that was sorely lacking in the Stars’ last postseason (and previous playoff runs under DeBoer), so it’s a nice thing to see early on, small sample size aside (say that five times fast!).
• Of course, on the other side of the spectrum, the Stars’ third period last night was a masterclass showcase of how to turtle, which is unfortunate in that turtling is very much not a good thing. The season-opener against Winnipeg was similar, as the Stars seemed determined to waste a four goal lead. And let’s not forget the Avalanche game, where Dallas never got the chance to blow a huge lead because they were busy letting Colorado walk all over them all game long. Oh, and the power play, which was Gulutzan’s claim to fame in Edmonton, was very lackluster across the first two games, although they at least got results last night against the Wild.
All of which is to say that this is, by and large, still the same Stars team, at least for now. The defense is still porous, they still aren’t dominating puck possession the way they probably could, and the goaltender will have to bail them out more often than you’d prefer. None of this is a point against Gulutzan, mind you: I’m not sure there’s any coach, in any sport at any level, that can completely transform a team comprised of the same players in just a couple games. The real question, therefore, is whether or not change eventually comes.
• Speaking of bailing out his team, Jake Oettinger has thus far looked every bit like a man with a chip on his shoulder after that Game 5 pull. The Winnipeg game was frustrating in that those three unanswered goals were all the result of Dallas more or less abandoning Oettinger to fend for himself, but you still want your franchise goaltender (now making $8.25M a year) to stop them anyways. But Oettinger absolutely stole Colorado game for Dallas, and he was well on his way to a shutout last night until the Stars kept tempting fate with the league’s top power play unit (somehow).
I’ve never been shy in “staning” for Oettinger, even as a few others in the Stars’ media-sphere (as much as I love them), aren’t as big of fans. So please excuse me as I take this three game sample size as sufficient justification for predicting Oettinger wins the Vezina this year, even if that prediction isn’t particularly bold.
• Another player with a chip on his shoulder is Jason Robertson, who has continued the tear he started ever since being left off the USA roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off eight months ago. You might think of it more as a “resurgence” given the scrutiny his playoff performance last year provided, but remember that he was playing injured that whole time, and yet he still managed to score four of the Stars’ only five goals in their last four games against the Oilers. To paraphrase the (ironically) greatly exaggerated quote of Mark Twain, the reports of Robertson’s stagnation have been greatly exaggerated, and he might very well end up a lock for the Olympic roster this time around.
The other skater who has stood out to me early is Wyatt Johnston, whose power play goal last night belongs in a museum. Unlike Robertson, Johnston will most likely not go to the Olympics since Team Canada is stacked at forward, but if he keeps up this pace, Doug Armstrong might have quite the predicament on his hands.
Oh, and Robertson and Johnston are only tied for fourth on the Stars for scoring. Good vibes thus far, good vibes.
• Back to the old coach vs. new coach theme, Nils Lundqvist, the permanent resident of the Pete DeBoer Doghouse, looks thus far to be trusted as a Top 4 defenseman for Dallas. And that’s not just because of the minutes he’s pulling — it’s very telling to me that, when Gulutzan wanted to get Alexander Petrovic some playing time, its was veteran Ilya Lybushkin who drew out of the lineup, not Lundkvist. Throw in a goal in the season opener, and the vibes are also good for the young defenseman, who could solve a lot of problems for Dallas if he is able to grow and finally meet the expectations of a former first round draft pick.
• Finally, maybe it’s the difference between early regular season games and end-of-playoffs despair, but these past few games have been a lot more fun to watch. And I say that as someone who, between you, me, and the entire internet was pretty down on the Stars heading into the new season. Mind you, I still am in that I don’t think this team is going to be making a fourth straight deep playoff run, but perhaps my concerns that they’d be closer to Wild Card territory than Division Champion was a bit too pessimistic on my part.
But again, it’s only three games in, so I have the right to say “I told you so” if the Stars end up struggling and fall short of expectations this regular and/or post season. And if they don’t do that and instead meet or surpass expectations, I have the right to say “I told you so” by pointing to this piece as proof that I actually did see the improvement coming, I was just too scared to admit it. It’s a win-win for me~