Today marks the beginning of NHL Free Agency, as well as being “Shea Weber’s Contract Has Expired” Day for all who celebrate. Although it is viewed as a weak UFA class, today nevertheless has the makings to potentially be one of the most tumultuous in Dallas Stars history.
Here are some of the top stories to keep an eye on for today:
Jason Robertson
The 1st-NHL All Star was shopped around before the NHL Draft, vetoing at least two different trades to the Seattle Kraken and St. Louis Blues respectively. Per reports, Robertson’s preference is to stay in Dallas, but he does not want to budge under $14M per season, whereas Dallas does not want to budge over $12-12.5M per season.
An offer sheet is possible, but at this point, there’s a decent chance Robertson ends up staying in Dallas. The question then becomes for how long? Do the two sides split down the middle(ish) and sign a long term deal? Or do they head to arbitration and end up with a one year deal, walking Robertson right to UFA? Given the Stars’ salary crunch for this year specifically, that path certainly has an appeal… if you could magically be assured Robertson would stay in Dallas, rather than losing him for nothing (or trading him at the deadline in a deal very reminiscent of Mikko Rantanen).
Mavrik Bourque
The Stars’ other former first round forward who’s a pending RFA, Bourque is a much more realistic offer sheet target — he could easily be given a contract too large for Dallas to match (without losing Robertson) while only giving up a small asset in return, likely a second round pick. And per reports, teams are prepared to approach Bourque and try and sign him away.
Of course, a player has to be willing to sign an offer sheet for it to be any threat. There’s a chance that Bourque only ways to stay in Dallas, perhaps even taking a bit of a discount on a bridge deal to help make the money work for other pieces before cashing in with Dallas a year or two from now. But with no resolution to the Robertson situation, committing to any specific cap hit just hurts the Stars flexibility, which might now come back to bite them if he is interested in getting a bigger payday.
Update: The Dallas Stars have traded Mavrik Bourque and Ilya Lybushkin to the Nashville Predators for the Predators’ 2027 2nd and the Golden Knights’ 2028 3rd.
Thomas Harley
News broke last night that Zack Werenski nixed a trade to Dallas in a package that would have revolved around Thomas Harley. There seem to be conflicting reports about why Werenski didn’t waive his NMC (some say he prefers to stay East, others that he only wants Toronto or Tampa Bay, others that he’s vetoing all trades), but by all accounts it’s reasonable to assume it won’t happen.
Unfortunately, the fallout from the news breaking can’t be good for Harley. Hockey is a tough business, but it has to be rough to be starting a new, 8 year mega-extension and learning that your team just tried to trade you after a down year, even if it was for the reigning Norris Trophy winner. No one can know for sure how Harley will end up taking the news, but hockey players are humans too, and this kind of stuff affects them.
Meanwhile the vetoed trade also shows that Jim Nill is willing to move Harley, one of the team’s only high salary players without trade protection, if the price is right. I’m not sure there’s a different realistic trade target that Dallas would view is worth shipping out Harley for — you would think it would have to be a top pairing defenseman — but it’s something to keep an eye on.
The Other Guys
Jamie Benn is hitting free agency, although the expectation has so far been that he will return to Dallas on a similar one-year deal as with last season. But again, any kind of signing shrinks the Stars’ cap and makes their RFA situation with Robertson and Bourque less flexible. Given that, even if Benn didn’t return to Dallas, he’s likely making the same, inexpensive contract anywhere, perhaps he’s fine with not signing right away and playing the waiting game for the Stars’ sake.
Meanwhile even if Robertson comes down to meet the Stars’ ask, they will need to clear some other cap space to make it work. Ilya Lybushkin has been long expected to be traded away to make room (Update: and now has been), but the Stars might also need to ship out Radek Faksa and/or Sam Steel to make the money work.
What’s going to happen? No one knows. That’s what makes the NHL offseason so much fun… and also so nauseating at the same time.