The 4 Nations Tournament break is over (congratulations to Thomas Harley!) and the Dallas Stars return to action tomorrow evening. What’s more, the trade deadline is just two weeks away, meaning if General Manager Jim Nill has any additional moves to make, he’s running out of time to do so.
Nill has already made a one major move, sending this year’s first round pick and a conditional third round pick to San Jose in exchange for Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci. Is that enough to push the Stars over the top though? In particular, is the defense good enough?
The Defense
As it stands, the Stars have one of the most top-heavy defenses in the league. Heiskanen, Harley, and Lindell have all played like top pairing defensemen this season. Below them, however, is a mass of players who grade out as sitting on the border between 4/5D at best, per HockeyViz.
HockeyViz doesn’t present data in a tabular format, which makes comparison difficult without flipping through 32 team pages or a few hundred player pages. However, we can recreate this chart using Evolving-Hockey’s xGAA (expected goals above average) data. Although it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison because each model has a different aim and methodology (think of xGAA as a midpoint between Evolving-Hockey’s WAR model, which is purely a descriptive of happened in the past and sG, which attempts to measure ability separate from results), we can convert xGAA to the same scale as sG to make comparisons a little more direct.
To convert xGAA to roughly the same scale as sG, I took each player’s per minute rates for this season, and if they had played less than 1,000 minutes this season, I did a weighted average of their rate this season with up to 500 minutes from the 2023-24 season. If their total minutes were still less than 1,000, I did an additional weighted average against the replacement level rate. This method helps smooth each player’s output while not placing too much emphasis on small sample sizes.
This is reasonably similar to HockeyViz’s chart, though it’s a bit harsher on Heiskanen and the bottom of the lineup and more kind to Lian Bichsel, Esa Lindell and especially Harley (who ranks second in the league by this measure). Quibbles over the details aside, both HockeyViz and Evolving-Hockey’s number paint the same picture. This is a defense whose top players can go head-to-head with anyone, but whose depth is a glaring weakness.
Now the question is, in spite of its flaws, can this defensive corps contend for a Stanley Cup? The top three defensemen are the envy of any team in the league, even with Miro Heiskanen having a slightly down year by his standards (Only a 1D instead of a top 10 defensemen). Only Edmonton and Vancouver grade out comparably, though Edmonton’s rating is being pulled up by the best season of Brett Kulak’s career and Vancouver’s is due to Quinn Hughes being outrageously good, single-handedly pulling up the overall rating of their top three defensemen.
The problem for Dallas is that the bottom of the lineup is a plethora of third pairing and replacement-level defenders. This assessment is shared by the coaching staff, given the distribution of ice time at even strength. The Stars’ big three routinely play more than 36% of the time at 5-on-5, and regularly exceed 40%, while the rest of the roster sits at or below 30-32% on most nights. This is especially striking for a coaching staff whose preference is to roll their lines and pairings.
There are some caveats to keep in mind looking at this chart. First, Matt Dumba’s minutes per game were much higher earlier in the season when he was on the top pairing with Heiskanen. He’s since been demoted to the third pair and has been healthy scratched several times since then and seems like a probable healthy scratch if the Stars don’t move him before the deadline (as has been rumored).
Second, Lian Bichsel has seen his minutes rising since Heiskanen was injured. He’s played mostly first and second pairing minutes since being recalled again. His on-ice impacts are improving as well, and with his size, he’s likely a regular in the playoffs.
Third, Nils Lundkvist is out for the rest of the season, and I haven’t read anything suggesting he’ll return for the playoffs.
Fourth, Ilya Lyubushkin’s even strength ice time is low, but he plays big minutes on the penalty kill and he’s clearly considered an important part of one of the best shorthanded units in the league.
Finally, I left Cody Ceci out of the chart because he only has four games played so far, but he’s played roughly 21 minutes per game since joining the Stars. Some of that is due to Heiskanen’s absence leaving a lot of minutes to be played by the rest of the roster. However, 20 minutes per game is roughly in line with Ceci’s usage over the course of his entire career. Despite rating as statistically one of the worst defensemen in the league across almost his entire career, coaches love him, and I expect that to continue in Dallas. It seems likely to me that he’ll play top 4 minutes in the playoffs next to one of the big three.
To sum up the current playoff outlook, the Stars are going to be heavily reliant on Heiskanen, Harley, and Lindell, with Ceci likely playing top 4 minutes with one of them. Lian Bichsel’s play and the coaching staff’s usage of him probably puts him in the top 6 once the playoffs begin, and Ilya Lybushkin will stay in the lineup for his role on the penalty kill.
The Rest of the Roster
Fortunately, the defensemen don’t have to play alone. They’ll play behind one of the deepest forward groups in the league.
Does any other NHL team come close to this level of forward depth? Basically 13 forwards who are top-nine quality or better, and a host of top-six guys leading the way.
— Robert Tiffin (@tiffin.bsky.social) February 11, 2025 at 2:01 PM
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Repeating the previous exercise converting xGAA to something similar to sG for the team’s forwards illustrates how impressive this group is.
No team has more top 9 quality forwards than Dallas and only Vegas has more top 6 forwards. What’s more, Jason Robertson’s slow start this season is included in these numbers. Him rounding into form makes Dallas’s forward even stronger than it’s appeared so far (though Matt Duchene may be due for some regression).
On top of that the skaters have the benefit of playing in front of Jake Oettinger, who’s enjoying a very strong bounce-back season, ranking near the top 10 starters by most metrics. The defense may have flaws, but the rest of the roster is very strong. The only potential weaknesses are the lack of a true game breaking forward (or two) and Tyler Seguin’s status for the playoffs.
Team Comparisons
So the Stars have an extremely top heavy defense, a deep forward corps, and a solid starting goaltender, is that enough? To answer that question, I calculated the Stars’ roster similarity to every other team since 2009-10 using the top 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and starting goaltender, and looked at the post-season outcomes for each team.
First, let’s look at the comparables if Seguin is healthy for the playoffs.
With Seguin in the lineup, the Star stack up extremely favorably compared to other post-season squads. Of their top 10 most similar comps, one went to the Stanley Cup Final and two went the Conference Final. Only three were eliminated in the first round. Furthermore, there are three more finalists just outside the top 10. In the top 20, more teams went to the Final or Conference Final than were eliminated in the first round. That’s extremely good company to be in, and gives the Stars at least a puncher’s chance.
Seguin’s absence is a big question mark though. Before his surgery, he was one of the Stars’ most valuable forwards this season. If he’s not able to return for the playoffs, or if he returns with a significantly reduced impact, what does that mean for the Stars’ chances?
The comparables are still strong, with plenty of Finalists and Conference Finalists at the top of the list. This is a noticeably weaker roster without Seguin, however, with more first round exits and even a couple teams that missed the playoffs entirely (the Stars probably don’t have to worry about that. Probably).
Something to keep in mind looking at these comparisons is that they are based purely on roster talent with no adjustments for usage. That means, for example, that Cody Ceci is the seventh defenseman in these comparisons, despite him likely playing a top 4 role. The coaching staff has the talent of a contender at their disposal, it’s up to them to optimize the roster to give the Stars their best chance to win.
Conclusion
Despite some big roster holes on defense, the overall talent level of this Stars team is roughly in line with at least a Conference Finalist or Stanley Cup Finalist. The forward group is extremely strong, and the goaltending is more than adequate to make up for the shallowness of the defense. Seguin’s health remains a big question mark however, and with the Stars defense looking thin at the moment, his potential absence will have a significant impact on the Stars’ Cup chances.
Furthermore, there is reason to be optimistic that Lian Bichsel’s development over the last 25 games of the season will give the Stars a fourth top 4 defenseman by playoff time. Coaching usage aside, this is a strong roster with a very good chance at making a deep run this spring, even if the Stars don’t make any additional moves.