It’s a new season, which means it’s time for more bold predictions for the Dallas Stars. This year marks the eighth time I’ve written this piece, with… inconsistent results:
- 2026-26: Not even close
- 2024-25: Home run as Jim Nill trades two (actually three!) first rounders
- 2023-24: Not even close
- 2022-23: Not even close
- 2021-22: Home run as neither Braden Holtby nor Anton Khudobin dressed for the Stars’ regular season finale
- 2020-21: Technically correct as Jake Oettinger outperformed Khudobin 2-0-1 across four statistical categories
- 2019-20: Kinda close on one, but not really
To put things in perspective: one of my first predictions was that Denis Gurianov would win the Calder Trophy. Yeah, it’s been a long time.
As always, let’s start by reviewing the ground rules:
- These aren’t just bold predictions — they’re bold predictions. Predicting that Jason Robertson wins the Rocket Richard? Tired. Predicting that he does so without scoring a single non-power play goal? Wired.
- Each prediction is independent of one another, but I won’t make any contradictory picks (e.g. Matt Duchene is the Stars’ leading scorer and Matt Duchene doesn’t play a single game). Combinations that are unlikely yet technically possible, however, are fair game (e.g. Matt Duchene is the Stars’ leading scorer and Matt Duchene plays only a single game).
- As with every year, each prediction will also have an accompanying SUPER BOLD prediction. These are usually (even more) silly and serve only as a reminder that this piece isn’t 100% serious. But if I manage to get one right, the Winnipeg Jets also have to claim the statistical records of the Coyotes, but only from when they were the Phoenix Coyotes — the Jets’ records are supposed to be confusing, darn it!
Enough dilly-dallying — let’s get started from (roughly) bold to boldest:
Prediction #1: Jason Robertson Signs a New Deal with Dallas… After July 1st
As I wrote in my last Afterwords following the Stars’ first round elimination, I believed Dallas should have given Jason Robertson whatever he wanted and figured things out from there. They, err, did not do that, and now, after signing a one year, $12M contract, Robertson is going to be an Unrestricted Free Agent this off-season. Thus sets up a possible scenario where Dallas has to weigh keeping Robertson on for a deep playoff run and risk losing him for nothing versus trading him mid-season despite being considered a Stanley Cup contender. Ironically, this is the exact same situation the Colorado Avalanche found themselves two seasons ago with Mikko Rantanen, whose eventual trade to Dallas (and subsequent extension) arguably prevented Dallas from being able to lock down Robertson long-term to begin with.
My personal thoughts and feelings aside, we’re looking at four realistic endings for the Robertson situation: 1) Dallas extends Robertson before the trade deadline, 2) Dallas trades Robertson before/at the trade deadline, 3) Dallas extends Robertson after the trade deadline but before free agency, or 4) Dallas loses Robertson “for nothing” as he leaves in Free Agency. Technically speaking, there’s also the possibility of a sign-and-trade after the season but before July 1st rolls around, but any such return would so minor that it might as well fall under 4).
However, there is a fifth, albeit less realistic option: Robertson hits free agency, but he ends up signing with Dallas anyways. It happens occasionally for some players (e.g. the Stars’ own Jamie Benn this offseason), but not typically “high end” players (e.g. Steven Stamkos got close in 2016, but still ended up signing two days before Free Agency). Still, saying Robertson signs with Dallas on July 1st (even if it’s after free agency official starts) doesn’t seem bold enough, so we’ll say it doesn’t happen until the next day at the earliest.
SUPER BOLD BONUS: Robertson isn’t on the Stars roster when his contract expires — he actually is traded at the deadline, only to return to Dallas in the offseason, giving the Stars both the trade return and long-term contract (but not his assistance for the 2027 playoffs).
Prediction #2: Dallas Leads the League in Every Traditional Team Statistic
As mentioned previously, the Stars are considered to be one of the league’s top teams and a bona fide Stanley Cup Contender, despite their less-than-ideal offseason. What they are not considered to be, however, is the undisputed best team in the league, e.g. the Stanley Cup favorite. Even putting their brutal division schedule aside, you could easily come up with a handful of teams that you think are better than Dallas, for various reasons. I say to heck with that, the Stars will be the best team!
But what actually makes a team “the best”? It’s not winning the President’s Trophy, as the “curse” means those teams often fail when the playoffs roll around — just ask last year’s Colorado Avalanche. Nor can you claim it’s whoever is the reigning Stanley Cup Champions — just ask last year’s Florida Panthers. Perhaps you could try and use #fancystats and analytics to try and determine it, but different models will lead to different results which lead to different conclusions.
Instead, let’s keep things simple: the Dallas Stars will be the “best” team at the end of the regular season because they’ll lead the league in every statistic on the NHL’s official team stats page. That means they’ll be the best in not only in points, but also GF, GA, PP%, PK%, and even net PP% and PK% (which take into account shorthanded goals). For individual game results, we’ll also count W, RW, ROW, L, and Shutouts, but we will not count OTL or Shootout Wins — we’re not looking to punish Dallas based on how often they reach overtime or the shootout compared to other teams.
To avoid another Oettinger/Khudobin debacle from 2020-21, we’ll also specify that ties for first place count as leading the league. Finally, we will not count Games Played, but will count GF/GP and GA/GP, to account for the plausible scenario in which ChatGPT achieves sentience and Judgement Day prematurely ends the NHL season.
SUPER BOLD BONUS: The Stars do all of this without any player leading in a major individual category (which we’ll again base off the NHL’s stat page, meaning Goals, Assists, Points, Wins, SV%, and Shutouts), nor will any player win a major NHL award. Hockey is supposed to be the ultimate team sport after all.
Prediction #3: Jamie Benn finishes with more Playoff Goals than PIM
The Stars’ Captain has come under a lot of fire in recent years due to his lack of discipline on the ice, specifically when it comes to the postseason (in 2022-23, he managed more PIM in 17 playoff games than he did across an entire 82 game season). This has also been paired with a severe drop in scoring come playoff time — despite scoring at a 0.6 PPG pace in the regular season the past two years, he managed just 3 points in 24 playoff games across the same time frame.
None of this should be all too surprising, given age curves, Benn’s play style, and other factors. It has put the Stars in an awkward spot, however, as there have been many times in the playoffs where the best on-ice decision would have been to healthy scratch their captain, except that would have no doubt been very disruptive to the locker room and team morale. After all, real life isn’t like Ted Lasso, even if Jim Nill has the mustache for it.
But this year, it’s going to be a non-issue as Benn cleans up his game while also stepping up to give his team that elusive depth scoring they’re always craving for. Namely, in the postseason (which the Stars will make as per Prediction #2), Benn will score more goals than PIM taken. That would be a career first for him, although he came close in his very first postseason back in 2014, when he scored four goals and took only four PIM across six games. Notably, he also had 33 goals and 34 PIM in the 2022-23 regular season, which made the aforementioned 51 PIM in the playoffs all the more confusing.
SUPER BOLD BONUS: Benn doesn’t get bailed out by a short playoff run or a surprise benching, as he manages the feat across at least three rounds and without missing a single game.
Prediction #4: Joel Kiviranta Scores a Hat Trick Against the Colorado Avalanche
Normally, these bold predictions are all about season long trends or results. And normally, I also try and throw in at least one prediction about a major NHL award in there as well. But the issue with doing this for eight years is there are only so many new and unique ideas I can try and predict before the well starts to run dry. For instance, I was going to predict Jake Oettinger winning the Hart Trophy, with the SUPER BOLD bonus being that he didn’t win the Vezina… except I already did that four years ago!
So I’m going to take a page from Sean McIndoe’s book and instead try my luck with a super specific, single-game prediction. As you all (should) know by now, the prodigal son, Joel “You Know What Goes Here” Kiviranta, has returned to Dallas after a three year loan stint with the Colorado Avalanche. That it was with Colorado was particularly noteworthy, given his defining career moment is completing a hat trick in overtime of Game 7 against the Avalanche in the 2020 bubble playoffs, forever cementing his legacy in Stars history.
Now that he’s back in Victory Green where he belongs, let’s say he repeats the epic feat… kind of. He still needs to score a hat trick, and it still needs to be against the Avalanche, but those are the only qualifiers. I mean come on, would I really be bold enough to also predict that he scores the third goal in overtime, in Game 7, in the second round to send Dallas to the Western Conference Final?
SUPER BOLD BONUS: He scores the third goal in overtime, in Game 7, in the second round to send Dallas to the Western Conference Final.
Before we wrap things up, what are your predictions for the year, bold or otherwise? Will Mikko Rantanen win the Art Ross? Will Glen Gulutzan be a shocking mid-season coaching fire? Will Quinn Hughes sign with the Stars in the offseason for six years at league minimum, citing he just really liked the idea of leaving Minnesota for Dallas? Leave your answers in the comments below!
And now, it’s time for what you’ve all been waiting for: the fifth and final prediction that is so bold, so unfathomable, that reality itself would break in two were it to come true:
Prediction #5: Dallas Carries 23 Players on their NHL Roster at Some Point this Regular Season
SUPER BOLD BONUS: No one is on any form of IR.