It’s finally here: opening night!
Well, at least opening night for the only NHL team that truly matters. And what better way to celebrate the start of the Dallas Stars season than with some bold predictions?
For those of you new here, I’ve been doing this for awhile now, and my record is… well, it could be better. I was either right or wrong on a technicality in Year 2, hit a slam dunk in Year 3, and have been horrificly wrong about everything else. But that’s to be expected when you go bold or go home.
Let’s review the ground rules:
- These aren’t just bold predictions — they’re bold predictions. Predicting that Jake Oettinger wins the Vezina Trophy? Tired. Predicting that he does it without leading the league in a single statistical category? Wired.
- Each prediction is independent of one another, but I won’t make any contradictory picks (e.g. the Stars win the Stanley Cup and the Stars’ 1st round pick wins the lottery). Combinations that are unlikely yet technically possible, however, are fair game (e.g. the Stars win the Stanley Cup and the Stars win the lottery… with someone else’s pick).
- As with every year, each prediction will also have an accompanying SUPER BOLD prediction. These are usually (even more) silly and serve only as a reminder that this piece isn’t 100% serious. But if I manage to get one right, the NHL is forbidden from expanding past 32 teams until the end of time. I know you’re all rooting for me.
Will Year 6 mark the return of a correct prediction? Let’s list them out and see, starting from (roughly) bold to boldest:
Prediction #1: Dallas is Swept in Round One
Last year, the Stars often felt like a team of destiny en route to a Stanley Cup win for its cupless veterans such as Joe Pavelski and Ryan Suter. Unfortunately, they fell well short of their quest after somewhat collapsing in the Western Conference Final to the Edmonton Oilers.
Those same Oilers, who proceeded to lose to the Florida Panthers in Game 7, are the popular pick to win it all this year. But Dallas follows closely behind, and who could blame you for feeling high on them? They have one of the best top lines, defenseman, and goalies in the league, and they have a large stock of young players ready to not just contribute down the lineup, but lead the way as key difference makers. What’s not to like?
Well, maybe the fact that the defense, the Stars’ biggest weakness last season, arguably got worse. And Pavelski retired while the likes of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are now another year older. And goaltending is voodoo so maybe Oettinger signs an 8×8.25 extension to match Jeremy Swayman only to have the worst season of his career.
You are a Stars fan right? You’re not supposed to be optimistic.
Last year I predicted the Stars to win 16 in a row to win the Cup, so I’m going with the flip side this year: Dallas won’t win a single playoff game, instead getting swept in the opening round.
SUPER BOLD BONUS: The team that sweeps them? The Arizona Coyotes Utah Hockey Club.
Prediction #2: Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque are Calder Trophy Finalists
Last year, I predicted that Dallas would have two rookies finish Top 5 in Calder Trophy voting (Note: I didn’t specify who). Instead, not a single rookie got a single vote, as Logan Stankoven was the only one to play more than a single game and didn’t even hit the 25 game mark.
That means, however, that he’s still considered a rookie heading into the season, despite also being considered a veteran for the preseason (good luck wrapping your head around that). And this time around, he’ll be in the opening night lineup, and be joined by his fellow rookie rookie Mavrik Bourque were the later not injured.
So while I usually avoid doing this, I’m making a similar prediction as last year, only I’m getting bolder — both Stankoven and Bourque will be Calder finalists this season. There’s a good chance they play on a line (perhaps with Jamie Benn) for the majority of the year, and they absolutely tore up the AHL last year while doing the same. Sure, the NHL is a huge step up, but the two players have the talent to do it anyways. Heck, Stankoven already did it when he was first called up last year.
Voters love scoring when it comes to the Calder, and with the Dallas Duo, there should be no shortage of that this season. Of course, having two rookies from the same team (and line!) means they’ll be splitting first place votes, but hey, it’s not as if a Dallas Star can actually win the Calder, right?
SUPER BOLD BONUS: Wrong. In defying years of bold prediction tradition, I’m actually predicting a Stars rookie will win the Calder. I’m just not saying who.
Prediction #3: Roope Hintz wins the Selke Trophy and Another Major Award
Keeping in line with the awards theme, the Stars have also failed to have a single player win a voted-upon major award since Jere Lehtinen’s third Selke Trophy in 2003. In fact, Lehtinen is the only player since the move to Dallas to win such an award excluding Joe Nieuwendyk’s Conn Smythe, which kind of doesn’t count since you’re guaranteed to have a player win it if you win the Stanley Cup.
No, I didn’t watch the Final last year after blacking out for the whole offseason once Dallas was eliminated. Why do you ask?
Anyways, the Stars are apparently allowed to win the Selke, and they actually have two quality candidates for it: Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Only, really, it’s only one candidate, because Robertson doesn’t play on the penalty kill and wingers have been barred from winning the award anyways ever since Lehtinen. So there you go, Roope Hintz is your 2025 Selke Trophy winner.
…only, that’s not bold enough. So here’s another statistic for you: since the award was introduced in 1978, only five players have ever won the Selke and another major award (voted-upon or not) in the same season: Sergei Fedorov, Ron Francis, Pavel Datsyuk (twice), Anze Kopitar, and Ryan O’Reilly. Hintz is going to add his name to history and become the sixth.
SUPER BOLD BONUS: Of those five, O’Reilly won the Conn Smythe (postseason) and Francis, Datsyuk, and Kopitar won the Lady Byng (which is is a dumb trophy voted almost exclusively based on PIM these days). Fedorov, on the other hand, won the Hart along with his Selke in ’94, and Bobby Clarke is the only other player to win both awards in their career. Hintz will become the third.
Prediction #4: Dallas Trades Two First Round Picks
Let’s shy away from individual predictions and go to a team focused one. As I pointed out two years ago, the Stars have picked in the first round in every year since 2009 with the exception of 2023, in which Dallas had traded their pick away to the New York Rangers in return for Nils Lundkvist. To quote myself, “it’s not just a Jim Nill thing — it’s a Dallas thing.”
…only, maybe it is a Jim Nill thing, because those pre-Nill teams at least had the excuse of being non-playoff teams, which meant they shouldn‘t have been trading their first rounders. But the Stars of today are a bonafide Cup Favorite, not just Contender, so what gives?
Well my friends, this year it all changes: Nill will trade not just one, but two first round picks this year in an effort to push all of his chips in and capitalize on this Stars’ window. Will it be for two different rentals as the Stars load up on star power, pushing their cap space to practically nil (pun intended)? Or maybe it’s to rope in a single big fish like pending RFA Noah Dobson, whom I sincerely believe will wear Victory Green if I just continue to will it into existence every day as I have for the past year?
Your guess is as good as mine. Which, if history is any indication, is not very good!
SUPER BOLD BONUS: Nill fulfills the prediction through loophole abuse, as at least one of those picks is traded to Dallas, then immediately to another team as part of a three-way deal. Bonus bold points if both are.
Before we wrap things up, what are your predictions for the year, bold or otherwise? Will Robertson’s scoring bounce back as he hits 40 goals again? Will Lian Bichsel get called up for good before the new year? Will Tyler write a story more than once a blue moon during the regular season? Leave your answers in the comments below!
Now then, it’s time what you’ve all been waiting for: the boldest, most unrealistic prediction you have ever seen:
Prediction #5: Nils Lundkvist Plays a Playoff Game for Dallas
SUPER BOLD BONUS: He also has a shift in the third period.