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Dallas has a lot to be thankful for. The 2015 draft, despite laying an egg with the first round pick (no disrespect to the DENIS system), yielded a true, number one center in Roope Hintz. In 2017, it added a number one left winger in Jason Robertson. Two years later, Dallas Stars general manager Jim Nill was able to bring in Joe Pavelski, eventually creating one of hockey’s best forward lines. With so much to be thankful for, there’s an equal amount to take for granted. Whatever Dallas’ plan is for its forwards next season, it better be about more than production.
I’m gonna step away from the main story to talk about the nature of the forward position. Hockey tends to talk about forwards in terms of two categories: forwards with talent and forwards with roles. There are the players who can score, and the players who can’t. The players who score get extra minutes on the power play while the players who can’t will get extra minutes on the penalty kill. It’s a horrifically outdated dichotomy that sets up a team with players who either play up the lineup, or down the lineup, but never the twain shall meet unless by accident i.e. injuries. For the most part, this dichotomy has changed, and Dallas has changed with it hence the league-wide trend in more scoring. However, it hasn’t changed enough.
And that’s the Stars’ challenge moving forward.
I prefer to think of forwards in terms of hard skills and soft skills, a topic I talked about briefly with Dimitri Filipovic on the PDO Podcast. This is something that the two teams in the Stanley Cup Finals have in abundance. The hard skills go without saying: shooting, passing, skating, puck handling, and spatial awareness being the top of the list, and the backbone of most scouting analysis. However, look at the players in Vegas’ bottom six: they’re not the most talented bunch in terms of hard skills, but they’re not mere role players either. No Andrew Cogliano, Blake Comeau, or Luke Glendening types: players whose only justification for their presence is that they play an offensive position at even strength, and a defensive position on the PK. Vegas’ forward group is flush with hard skills, but they have a lot of players with the necessary soft skills to gain and maintain territory.
It’s in the soft skills category that Dallas, at least broadly speaking, fails to impress. Outside of their top line, what does the rest of the group do well beyond production? How many players know how to attack the middle of the ice? How many forwards excel along the wall? How many consistently beat opposing defensemen on puck retrievals?
As I argued at D Magazine, the conversation about improving the Dallas Stars begins and ends with the blueline. But for now, let’s talk about the alternative universe where Jim Nill likes where the defense is at but follows the same path he took at the trade deadline: by giving Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn more offensive rope. Evgenii Dadonov and Max Domi gave Dallas an element that had been missing from their offensive group for a long time: playmaking. It’s unlikely both will be back, especially if Domi’s Instagram is any indication. For the sake of argument, we’ll assume Dadonov isn’t brought back either (he is, after all, an older player). How, then, can Dallas improve a forward group that will once again be hurting for depth?
Do they go with hard skills or soft skills? And which is more important for a group that has what it takes to win it all?
Hard Skill Candidate #1: Nikolaj Ehlers
In terms of pound-for-pound skill, Ehlers is — for my money — right up there with the very best. Since he debuted in 2015, his 2.34 points per 60 minutes of even strength play ranks 28th. That’s just above Robert Thomas, Alex Ovechkin, and Mathew Barzal. He’s a chance creation machine: the rush, the cycle, deflection assists, high danger assists, ability to create rebounds…you name it, he does it. That +4 in setting means his passing ability increases the odds of a shot becoming a goal by four percent. That’s just one percent below Hintz.
Dallas has $7.3 million in cap to work with. Ty Dellandrea’s projected cap hit per Evolving-Hockey is $1.5 million. That would leave Dallas with an actual cap of $5.8 million. Technically, the Stars won’t be able to squeeze Ehlers’ $6 million AAV contract onto their roster. But Winnipeg is open for business. Rick Bowness has let Ehlers’ talents functionally piss in the wind, and so it’s a deal that makes sense for both teams on the surface.
Pros: Ehlers really is a singular talent. The best players have their own gravity, and Ehlers has it. It wouldn’t matter if he was next to Wyatt Johnston or Tyler Seguin: he’d instantly be the line’s most talented forward. Imagine Domi in Super Saiyan mode, and Ehlers is the end result. His ability to create for others is kind of a big deal for a Dallas team that has largely had its depth weigh their best peripheral talent down. Ehlers is a rising tide, and you better believe he can lift all boats.
Cons: Well: assuming he stays healthy. The other issue is that Ehlers’ cap would restrict any other moves, full stop. Basically, Dallas would be all-in on one guy as the move to put them over the top.
Bottom line: I’m torn. On the one hand, I think Ehlers would be good enough to put Dallas over the top. On the other, the Stars would be putting all their eggs in one basket (Ehlers to fix depth) on a team filled with a lot of baskets carrying all the other eggs (Hintz and Co. to score, Miro to defend, etc).
Soft Skill Candidate #1: Conor Garland
The Stars found their next Domi. What if they brought in an offensively-skilled Joel Kiviranta? That sounds kind of good, right? Well that’s who Garland is. (This is a parallel universe so we’re ignoring the blood feud between Gaglardi and Vancouver ownership.)
Pros: Garland is pure, uncut Plays the Right Way. I hate that phrase, but he’s fast and fearless without being dumb. Dallas doesn’t really have this type of player in the top six; someone who plays a direct, north-south game with blazing speed. Even Hintz, while one of the fastest players in the league, keeps his speed contained. Like Hicks’ shotgun, Roope saves it for close encounters whereas a player like Garland is always experiencing close encounters.
Also, Garland would be perfect for Marchment and Seguin — a winger who can drive play on his own, is hard on the forecheck, but who is also defensively responsible. Plus his contract expires a year after Benn and Lindell’s caps are gone, so he’s not throwing a huge wrench in the cap plans.
Cons: A $4.9 million cap hit is a lot for a player who’s highest point total ever is 52. This year he scored 46 points despite spending most of his time with J.T. Miller and Bo Horvat. It’s hard to imagine him doing better next to Marchment and Seguin.
Bottom line: His cap isn’t worth it, but he’d instantly fix Marchment and Seguin in terms of helping them drive play. What’s that worth?
Hard Skill Candidate #2: Ross Colton
First there was Jonathan Marchessault. Then there was Carter Verhaeghe. Is Ross Colton the next ex-Lightning player about to light it up for another team? Tampa Bay is up against the cap. They have two RFA’s to sign: one is Colton, and the other one is Tanner Jeannot, who they went all-in on. Colton had a down year this season, but the potential is there. Plus he single-handedly dragged Tampa’s corpse into a competitive series versus the Leafs. He is absolutely worth his projected $3.3 million cap hit.
Pros: Who doesn’t want a young Joe Pavelski? “WTF did you just say?” I’m kidding. But do you see that deflection ability? A player with speed, and that level of ability passing off the wall seems like a darn good fix for anything. Here’s another thing: any Fox Mulder levels of belief in Pavelski overcoming Father Time need to be tempered with expectations. It’s worth getting ahead of the top line’s future. Might Colton be the future missing link for Call-The-Top-Line-Whatever-You-Want-Just-Be-Original-Por-Favor? A cost-controlled winger like Colton would be perfect for the chain of succession.
Cons: Colton is still something of an x-factor. I don’t think Dallas has buyer’s remorse when it comes to Marchment, even if the fans do. It was only one year, and it was a tough year. But I think they knew, broadly speaking, that Marchment was a risk. As such, I don’t believe they’d have the appetite to roll the dice again.
Bottom line: Colton is low risk, and high reward. His projected cap wouldn’t break the bank, and I just have a hard time seeing any good argument against.
Soft Skill Candidate #2: Evan Rodrigues
For years Rodrigues has been the proverbial analytics darling. In Buffalo, he was that William Karlsson type: primed for a bigger role if only given the chance despite only topping 20 points. (Karlsson was never actually hyped up like Rodrigues, but this felt like a good analogy.) It sort of happened. In Pittsburgh he broke the 40-point barrier thanks to a bigger role with occasional minutes next to Sidney Crosby. He was on a 40-point pace in Colorado this season, but missed 13 games. Is that the real Rodrigues? I think so.
Pros: Dallas needs more north-south wingers with speed and Rodrigues is that player. He’s one of the game’s best forecheckers, and is something of a gamechanger when it comes to creating rebounds. What’s not to love other than the lack of name value?
Cons: His projected term and cap is $4.8 million for four years. I’m not convinced he gets it. But this is not a player who’s getting Glendening money either.
Bottom line: I’m not really sure. Rodrigues reminds me of Dellandrea in the next three years: spackle, but with talent. He won’t move the needle in terms of production, but he’ll help make Dallas a better territorial team. What’s that worth?
Hard Skill Candidate #3: Max Pacioretty
Nill loves his veterans, so don’t be surprised if Pacioretty is at the top of his list. Consecutive achilles tears took him out for the season, but he’ll be cheap, and be worth what is expected to a very meager contract. The hope will be that Max is only 34 years of age in Pavelski years.
Pros: Pacioretty hits all the right notes in terms of adding a lethal shooter with speed. He plays a surprisingly clean game, is defensively responsible, and will cost peanuts. (His next contract is projected to be one year at $1.5 million.)
Something else: Wyatt Johnston will only get better; it’s just a question of how much. Pacioretty would be a great mentor for Johnston, as the former Canadien has always been one of the better forwards (like Phil Kessel) at shooting in stride. If Johnston is to improve his shot, Pacioretty would have a lot to teach him. Johnston isn’t an afterburner but it’s an element he can stand to add at a higher level. Measuring that kind of value added might not ever be known, but I think it’s a cool possibility.
Cons: You might have noticed a trend with this list thus far: all forwards are either right wingers or can play right wing. Pacioretty is a pure left winger. If he was brought in, Marchment would likely have to shift to the right side (which he’s done) with Robertson and Benn spoken for. Then there’s the whole injury thing.
Bottom Line: It’s a little too Nillsy for my taste, but I don’t hate it. While Pacioretty doesn’t add the playmaking the Stars will likely lose, being a sniper who can shorten the neutral zone is that added element we keep talking about Dallas doesn’t have.
Soft Skill Candidate #3: Connor Brown
Connor Brown has been a personal favorite of mine for many years. In fact, I’ll die on the hill that Toronto would have a few more playoff rounds with Brown and Zach Hyman instead of neither and John Tavares (or one of Nylander/Marner: yea, I’ll go there). He’s the perfect five-tools forward for the modern game. He’s like Domi, minus the missed assignments. He missed all of last year due to a torn ACL, so while he’s available, there might be concern that he doesn’t come back 100%.
Pros: Like a lot of guys on this list, Brown is perfect for injecting more speed and chances off the rush in a lineup that needs it. The loss of Domi and Dadonov wouldn’t be felt given his quietly elite passing ability. And like Garland, he can carry his own weight. As long as Marchment and Seguin remain a preferred duo, the Stars will need someone who doesn’t force them into having to be the guy on their line.
Cons: Evolving-Hockey has Brown getting $2 million on a one-year deal. I have my doubts. As far as cons, that’s pretty much it.
Bottom Line: Get him.
X-Factor Candidate: Logan Stankoven
(Please don’t go apes**t with this chart, as this is Bedard’s draft year) Stankoven is never going back. He’s a lock to make the roster. But he hasn’t even played a single NHL game. Is he next year’s Wyatt Johnston? How real is the hype?
Very. But I think fans need to prepare themselves for the player Stankoven actually is. I think this is where prospects have the most trouble: adjusting that dynamic between hard and soft skills. A lot of players are so used to their talents being enough that they have a hard time developing the rest of their game. This isn’t a cheeseball argument about being well-rounded. It’s about whether they’re able to manifest those talents into the system’s demands. Part of Johnston’s success is that his soft skills were always elite. You won’t find any scouting reports about Johnston having some next level shot, but he adjusts so well in-game, I think he leaned into that talent because he knows how to capitalize on what’s available — in his case, being in position to shoot. Stankoven isn’t that type of player. But…
Pros: Stankoven is really good along the wall, and not a lot of Dallas forwards can say that. I think his potential is in anchoring a modern day third line in a William Karlsson-type role. He is, after all, a natural center and a beast on the faceoff. However, he also profiles like a diligent shooter, and passer, so I’m not here to rain on anyone’s parade. Multdimensional + endless motor…there’s just no way Stankoven isn’t an instant impact player. But…
Cons: I could see the production not being there. Part of my problem with Dallas finding Seguin and Marchment a partner is that the two don’t have chemistry; they’re just leftovers. Neither can go on the fourth line, and there’s no appetite to break anyone else up, so they’re stuck with each other. Sticking Stankoven in this kind of environment won’t benefit him the way it did Johnston, who plays a cleaner game. That doesn’t mean Stankoven plays a lesser one. He’s just more rugged. That added workload could factor in against his bottom line.
Bottom line: Stankoven’s gonna be a player. But I think it’s gonna break one of two ways: either he absolutely kills it with Seguin the same way Benn and Johnston did, or has a Marchment-esque season that zigs and zags. Of course, a Marchment-esque season would be perfectly acceptable for a 20-year old player.
Concluding Thoughts
Domi and Dadonov were fantastic additions that really cemented Dallas’ depth. But just because they were good additions doesn’t mean Dallas can’t do better. Personally, I’d be happy with adding Brown, Stankoven, a Suter buyout, and a Chris Tanev trade (or any reasonable defenseman to fix the top four) and calling it a day: that feels like a roster that can win it all.
If Vegas wins the Cup, Dallas will either feel like they don’t need to tinker at all, or that they need to tinker enough to leave no doubt. The latter has never been in Nill’s bag of tricks, but neither was trading a first round pick for a prospect. (Ignore for a second the end result.)
I still maintain that the blueline is the first, second, and third order of business. But just because adding a depth forward is the fourth order of business doesn’t make it any less relevant. The margins matter, which makes whoever Nill adds all the more important.