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Stars Season Scoring Chances: Even Strength

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By untjosh
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Over the course of the season I've collected a sizable amount of data about the Stars. It could be more, and next year it will be (we'll get into that when it becomes more topical), but with the season still fresh on our collective minds now is a good time to look back at how events transpired over the season. This is a lot of information so it's going to be broken up appropriately.

The recaps will be broken into a TBD amount of separate posts. It's TBD because any number of different approaches could be taken to the data to learn any number of things. Three are definitely in the pipeline though. First we'll knock out all Even Strength chances in this post. The next post is going to be all Special Teams chances. The third post in the pipeline is going to be splits. What that fully consists of is anyone's guess right now, but at the bare minimum it will be team by team breakdowns, period by period, and home vs. road.

Without further ado, follow the jump to see how your favorite Dallas Stars fared in the 2011-12 campaign at even strength.

ESTOI: Even Strength Time On Ice; F: For; A: Against; SC%: F/F+A;

Adj SC Δ: Zone Start Adjusted Scoring Differential

Adj SCΔ/15: Zone Start Adjusted Scoring Chance Differential/15 Minutes

Player ESTOI F A SC % Adj SC Δ Adj SCΔ/15
FRASER 3.95 1 0 100 1 3.8
JORDIEBENN 36.92 8 2 80 8.13 3.3
BENN 1028 272 174 60.99 108.63 1.58
GLENNIE 7.01 1 1 50 0.43 0.91
WATHIER 5.42 0 1 0 0.28 0.76
GARBUTT 161.82 42 35 54.55 7.85 0.73
GOLIGOSKI 1251.67 299 241 55.37 59.28 0.71
DILLON 15.18 5 6 45.45 0.7 0.69
OTT 1037.92 238 207 53.48 46.73 0.68
PETERSEN 260.3 38 30 55.88 11.83 0.68
BURISH 687.17 132 131 50.19 26.5 0.58
VINCOUR 459.7 98 81 54.75 17.85 0.58
PARDY 541.67 129 109 54.2 17.03 0.47
RYDER 1163.55 297 251 54.2 35.8 0.46
ROBIDAS 1242.18 252 246 50.6 29.38 0.35
ERIKSSON 1217.78 288 257 52.84 21.23 0.26
DOWELL 348.47 59 58 50.43 3.98 0.17
WANDELL 630.83 97 107 47.55 3.18 0.08
LARSEN 877.1 187 180 50.95 3.6 0.06
BARCH 67.15 4 10 28.57 -5.58 -0.08
DALEY 1293.55 274 305 47.32 -7.63 -0.09
FISTRIC 829.7 136 166 45.03 -11.73 -0.21
SOURAY 990.35 179 216 45.32 -14.48 -0.22
GROSSMANN 817.27 123 158 43.77 -16.3 -0.3
NYSTROM 874.7 132 180 42.31 -24.2 -0.41
FIDDLER 933.7 136 202 40.24 -27.75 -0.45
MORROW 765.87 139 185 42.9 -30.7 -0.6
DVORAK 861.72 127 186 40.58 -35.2 -0.61
RIBEIRO 1157.88 249 278 47.25 -47.28 -0.61
SMITH 22.08 5 10 33.33 -3.73 -2.53

Your most valuable skater this season was unquestionably Jamie Benn. He lapped the field in scoring chance differential...literally. For every 15 minutes of even strength ice time it would be reasonable to expect Benn to generate 1.5 more scoring chances for than against. The closest regular forward to Benn is linemate Steve Ott at .68. Right behind him is sometimes Benn linemate Adam Burish.

The most valuable defensemen ended up being Alex Goligoski by a wide margin at .71 chances. Of the regular defensemen, Stephane Robidas was second to Goligoski at .35. Philip Larsen was able to poke his head above water in his first full season, but no other regular defensemen were positives.

The biggest surprises in this list are Ryan Garbutt and Adam Pardy. Garbutt should be taken with a grain of salt. He was +4 chances in game 82 of the season. In only 161 minutes when you're +7 for the entire year a +4 game right at the end can cause some havoc. Good for him, but take it with a grain of salt. Before game 82 he would have been down with Michael Ryder which seems much more appropriate. Pardy, ultimately, did prove to be useful despite the early what have you.

In his first full season Tomas Vincour overcame the odds to finish +17 chances. As with Garbutt, six of those came in the final game against the Blues, but he overcame a really poor start to get to +17. He was one of the Stars more useful players after the break despite not scoring in droves.

I've been pretty vocal about my feelings about how the top and third lines have performed so, if you've been following along, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise to see five of the main members of those units as the five biggest negatives for the year. Something has to give with either (or both) of those units in 2013 if the Stars hope to improve. Conceptually, both the Stars top relied upon offensive and defensive lines were out chanced heavily at even strength. Without doing any extra work that just sounds like a recipe for not making the playoffs.

There you have it. Stay tuned for the Special Teams update in a few days.


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