Ok, so this is my first year at trying out this fantasy hockey thing. I have been having a blast with it so far and my team is still doing will. Win, lose or draw for the season, I am definitely glad I got myself into one of these little pools.
At any rate...I came upon an interesting conundrum whilst picking my match-ups for tonight's games. I have (3) goalies on my roster: Quick, Rinne and Elliot. It turns out all three goalies play tonight and (2) of them (Rinne and Elliot) play against one another. Since you can only start (2) goalies at a time (if you have 3 on your team) I figured there was some math that needed figuring to decide on which (2) goalies I should start tonight.
Our pool sets up W=4pts, GA= -.25, SO=3pts
After all the math was calculated I learned a couple of interesting facts:
1. If you pick both goalies who play against one another, you will not get a negative number (pending one goalie gets the W) even if the losing goalie gives up 6-7 goals.
2. If you pick two goalies who do not play against each other, the range is significantly larger and negative numbers are a definite possibility.
The ranges of both possibilities (Head to Head vs Different Games):
H2H: + 1.25 - + 6.75
Diff: -3.00 - + 14.00
The % of getting a value over +0:
The % of getting a value over +4:
So...moral of the story...if you are in the beginning of the week and looking for most potential points and have the ability to make up ground if you get a negative value, go for glory.
If you have a slim lead and looking to hedge your bet, head to head is a great luxury for you.