Dallas Stars Advanced Stat Analysis: What's Wrong With the Power Play at Home?

Ronald Martinez

There's no aspect of the Stars' game that is struggling more than the power play at home. Why is that? Well, read on, my friends.

According to Behind The Net, the Stars rank 4th from the bottom in the NHL in GF/60 in 5on4 situations with a measly 4.3 GF/60 (Only Carolina, Florida, and Winnipeg have worse Power Play stats in 5on4).

One stat that stood out in my research on this issue is that the Stars don't have a single player in the Top 50 of PPTm%, which is a measure of a single players PPTOI relative to his team. Alex Ovechkin, not surprisingly, leads the NHL in this stat having been on the ice 93.8% of the time that the Capitals have been on the power play.

Jamie Benn leads the Stars, having been on the ice for 57.9% of the time the Stars have spent on the Power Play. In fact, Tyler Seguin, Ray Whitney, and Alex Chiasson are all above the 50% mark. Whether this is symptomatic of how Lindy Ruff doled out PP minutes in Buffalo or if he even gives this much input on the unit given the fact that one of Curt Fraser's duties as an assistant coach is coaching the Power Play units is anybody's guess.

In fact, this could simply be a case where Ruff and Fraser are throwing their top 6 forwards and offensive defensemen into a line blender hoping to find the magic formula. And once they find it, they'll stay with consistent lines on the power play moving forward.

Which speaking of lines, I'll get to that in a bit.

In the meantime...

PP
G
GF/60
Total
155:32
10
3.002745566
Home
65:31
1
0.915797507
Away
90:01
9
5.998889095
Differential
-8
-5.083091588

It's obviously no secret that Dallas has horribly struggled on the power play at home. But these numbers put in context just how much of a struggle it is.

Yes, they've played 5 more games on the road than they have at home as well as been on the man advantage for almost 25 minutes.

But a 0.9158 GF/60 is what it is. And so is a differential of more than 5 GF/60.

And the trend remains the same as we delve deeper into the shot statistics.

PPSF
SF/60
PPMSF
PPBSF
PPShAttF
PPShAttF/60
Total
111
42.82
50
51
212
81.78311
Home
33
30.221
23
23
79
72.348
Away
78
51.99
27
28
133
88.65025
Differential
-45
-21.77
-4
-5
-54
-16.3022

What to make of these numbers?

Well, the first thing that jumps out to me is SF/60 differential. Bear in mind you can fit 20 two minute minors in an hour. So a differential of over 20 shots means the Stars are roughly averaging one shot less per home power play than they are on the road.

So is it a case where the Stars aren't getting as much attack zone time on the power play at home than they are on the road? Well, that's hard to quantify.

Once upon a time, the NHL used to track attack zone time. And if I recall correctly, they broke it down by ES, PP, and SH situations.

What we can do is look at the overall shot attempts, which encompasses all goals, shots, missed shots, and blocked shots. As the table shows, the Stars are averaging about 16 attempts less per 60 minutes at home than they are on the road.

Getting to the question of whether it's a case where the Stars aren't enjoying as much attack zone time at home than the road or if the shots aren't getting through, these stats would suggest it's fair to say that the blame would tilt heavily to shots missing the net or not getting through with a slice of less attack zone time.

Now let me go back to the lines. Which I'll present without comment as an image (since it includes databars in Excel).

And finally, the individual differentials, which I limited to those who have received at least 10 minutes of ice time on the power play this season.

Differentials
Power Play
No
Pos
Name
G
A1
A2
P
G/60
A/60
P/60
Shots
Miss
Block
Shots/60
Miss/60
Block/60
3
D
ROBIDAS, STEPHANE
1
0
0
1
4.337349398
0
0
3
2
-1
13.01204819
8.674698795
-15.72052402
6
D
DALEY, TREVOR
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
-4.639175258
-1
3
1
-4.750048629
13.47403229
4.528301887
10
C
HORCOFF, SHAWN
-2
0
0
-2
-5.930807249
0
0
-1
0
0
0.577473337
0
0
12
R
CHIASSON, ALEX
-2
0
-2
-4
-2.490487721
0
-2.490487721
-5
3
-1
-2.552171627
6.185096697
-0.632902581
13
L
WHITNEY, RAY
0
-1
-1
-2
0
-1.789264414
-1.789264414
-6
6
6
-10.74889286
10.69566734
10.69123188
14
L
BENN, JAMIE
0
-2
-1
-3
0
-2.330097087
-1.165048544
2
6
3
5.684899408
9.97233777
5.358924698
17
C
PEVERLEY, RICH
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-7
-3
-3
-7.024480334
-3.330776215
-2.209779965
20
C
EAKIN, CODY
-2
0
1
-1
-4.466501241
0
2.457337884
-2
-2
2
-4.018326713
-4.242413977
4.914675768
24
D
BENN, JORDIE
-1
0
-1
-2
-4.306220096
0
-4.306220096
-4
1
0
-17.22488038
13.23529412
0
33
D
GOLIGOSKI, ALEX
-1
-1
0
-2
-1.41955836
-1.41955836
0
3
1
-1
9.286137108
2.137767221
2.171485947
43
R
NICHUSHKIN, VALERI
0
-1
0
-1
0
-3.010033445
0
0
-1
0
3.466099118
-1.276983886
0
55
D
GONCHAR, SERGEI
0
0
-3
-3
0
0.43119899
-4.155444402
0
-3
1
2.155994951
-4.155444402
2.678745105
72
L
COLE, ERIK
0
-1
-1
-2
0
-2.051282051
-2.051282051
-5
0
-4
-10.25641026
0
-8.205128205
91
C
SEGUIN, TYLER
-2
-2
0
-4
-2.356020942
-2.356020942
0
-5
-4
-1
-1.217219826
-2.37562562
0.574301728

Quite clear that from a pure shots standpoint, Stephane Robidas, Jamie Benn, and Alex Goligoski are the only Stars who have consistently performed better at home on the power play than on the road while Jordie Benn and Erik Cole have probably seen the biggest drop off from road to home.

If there's a sliver of good news, the law of averages combined with a few homestands to make up for the discrepancy in road games to home games should help. And it better considering the Stars injuries and just how stacked the West is this year.

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