Dallas Stars March 2012 Scoring Chance Update

DALLAS, TX - MARCH 10: Michael Ryder #73 of the Dallas Stars is congratulated by teammates after scoring an empty net goal against the Anaheim Ducks during the third period of a hockey game at the American Airlines Center on March 10, 2012 in Dallas, Texas. Dallas won 2-0. (Photo by Brandon Wade/Getty Images)

It's been almost exactly one month since the last look at the Stars season scoring chance picture. Since the last update the Stars have gone 10-3-3. They've played a better brand of hockey since the last update, and it shows in the numbers. The Stars are still in the red overall but the gaps have closed for the most part.

P Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 267 288 209 229 49 3 1 0 8 55 0 1
2 251 323 198 227 44 8 2 0 7 86 0 2
3 259 251 208 184 43 8 0 0 8 56 0 3
4 20 23 17 18 1 0 0 0 2 5 0 0
T 797 885 632 658 137 19 3 0 25 202 0 6

These reports are just like the game reports. The first column under a specific title is chances generated by the Stars. The second column is chances they allowed. The player charts are a little different which you'll notice almost immediately after following the jump. But before we get to the player charts we're going to look back at the month that was.

The winning streak has many thinking the Stars are a legitimate threat to win the division. Considering that they sit atop the Pacific with about a month to go fans in general have every reason to dream of home ice advantage for a round (or two?) in the playoffs. The current winning streak is largely to thank for those thoughts of grandeur. The past month the Stars were breaking even in the scoring chance department which is a far cry from the -88 for the season as a whole.

P Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 75 84 58 74 12 -1 1 0 3 17 0 0
2 89 98 78 62 12 3 2 0 2 37 0 1
3 79 73 62 55 16 1 -1 0 3 16 0 2
4 14 10 15 10 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Totals 257 265 213 201 41 3 2 0 8 72 0 3

All of the differential over the last month comes from special teams. It's been chronicled in numerous places how few powerplay opportunities the Stars have gotten in relation to how many opportunities they're given the opposition. The Stars are -27 scoring chances on special teams during the run over the past month. The special teams as a whole have been solid. The Stars biggest issue right now is pretty blatantly that they are too far in the red as far as powerplay time vs penalty kill time goes. At even strength they were +12 from February 9th to March 12th.

Let's move on to the player charts. We'll start those with the forward group.

ESTOI: Even Strength Time On Ice, ESf: Even Strength Chances For ESa: Even Strength Chances Against ESSC%: Scoring Chance Percentage (For/For+Against),

AdjSC/15: Zone Start Adjusted Scoring Chances/15 minutes AdjSC/60: AdjSC for 60 minutes;

PPTOI: Powerplay Time On Ice, PP Δ/2: Powerplay Scoring Chance Differential Per Two Minutes,

SHTOI: Shorthanded Time On Ice, SH Δ/2: SH Scoring Chance Differential Per Two Mins

Player ESTOI ESf ESa ESSC % AdjSC/15 AdjSC/60 PPTOI PP Δ/2 SHTOI SH Δ/2
MORROW 598.98 106 148 41.73 -0.82 -3.27 107.60 0.69 20.95 -0.95
DOWELL 306.87 59 49 54.63 0.45 0.11 1.03 0.00 20.57 -0.78
BARCH 67.15 4 10 28.57 -0.08 -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00
BENN 823.42 212 133 61.45 1.58 6.31 129.15 0.74 35.55 -0.45
BURISH 541.87 101 103 49.51 0.26 1.05 34.08 0.94 69.72 -1.29
PETERSEN 255.53 37 30 55.22 0.51 2.04 22.40 0.45 9.67 -0.83
DVORAK 816.53 118 172 40.69 -0.70 -2.81 7.13 0.28 123.57 -1.04
ERIKSSON 1016.03 231 199 53.72 0.50 1.99 169.17 0.97 112.05 -0.82
WANDELL 571.40 82 90 47.67 0.11 0.45 33.65 0.48 8.05 -0.25
NYSTROM 757.28 104 158 39.69 -0.86 -3.44 11.20 0.00 80.18 -0.67
FRASER 3.95 1 0 100.00 3.80 15.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
OTT 863.30 189 167 53.09 0.60 2.39 120.43 0.61 98.25 -1.02
FIDDLER 783.87 109 173 38.65 -0.86 -3.43 9.50 0.21 131.27 -0.96
GARBUTT 97.22 27 23 54.00 -0.10 -0.42 0.10 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
WATHIER 5.42 0 1 0.00 0.76 3.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
RIBEIRO 955.42 188 217 46.42 -0.59 -2.35 163.63 1.00 47.42 -0.93
RYDER 966.68 236 192 55.14 0.67 2.68 175.42 0.75 3.45 0.00
VINCOUR 362.98 68 67 50.37 -0.12 -0.47 16.22 0.00 0.23 0.00

The chart is sorted by player number. After I did the HTML I realized I never sorted it. This will have to do for now. The key column at even strength is AdjSC/15. Jamie Benn still rules the world at almost +1.58 chances per 15 minutes. In the near future I'm going to compare Mike Ribeiro's production post All Star break to the first part of the season, but right now you can see how much difference the zone start change has made. Ribeiro is now at -.59 Adjusted Scoring Chances/15 minutes. His linemate for most of the season, Brenden Morrow, is at -.82. Considering that he's been hurt for a good portion of the season, his totals are a good proxy for what that line did when together. Ribeiro sat at -65 chances in the last update. He's now -30. He cut his deficit in half in a month. As you can see, Ribeiro has made quite the turn around when he isn't forced into such difficult defensive minutes.

Also, Tomas Vincour is now +1 chance at even strength.

Player ESTOI Evf EVa ESSC% AdjSC/15 AdjSC/60 PPTOI PP Δ/2 SHTOI SH Δ/2
GROSSMANN 817.27 123 158 43.77 -0.30 -1.20 3.85 0.52 112.57 -0.68
ROBIDAS 1033.18 212 200 51.46 0.38 1.51 153.42 0.78 172.18 -1.08
DALEY 1073.98 207 240 46.31 -0.27 -1.08 142.78 0.80 156.12 -0.96
PARDY 396.90 81 68 54.36 0.39 1.58 2.02 1.98 18.23 -0.88
FISTRIC 737.87 121 145 45.49 -0.30 -1.19 0.82 0.00 115.87 -1.02
GOLIGOSKI 1022.42 232 189 55.11 0.62 2.47 175.93 0.80 62.18 -0.74
LARSEN 674.65 129 138 48.31 -0.37 -1.48 54.33 0.33 15.95 -0.50
SOURAY 838.67 152 184 45.24 -0.19 -0.77 96.17 0.62 115.40 -0.94
JORDIEBENN 24.45 3 0 100.00 2.36 9.45 0.15 0.00 0.00 0

Alex Goligoski is still the alpha male of the Stars defense. Alex had been in a rut leading up to the previous update which saw his scoring chance differential drop to +20. It's back up to +43. He and Philip Larsen have been working well together during the streak. Larsen, -32 even strength chances as of the last update, is now only -9. Stephane Robidas also saw a large jump in his numbers, partially buoyed by a heavy dose of offensive zone time.

For both sets of skaters I also included special teams numbers, and since I included them we might as well look at them real quick. When putting these tables together a few players stood out to me. Frankly, I was shocked about a couple of them. With the trade of Nicklas Grossmann the Stars top penalty killing defenseman has been Goligoski. Goligoski is averaging about .75 scoring chances against per two minutes of penalty killing time. Of the four defensemen with 100 minutes of penalty killing time (still on the roster), Sheldon Souray has been the Stars top penalty killing defenseman.

I'm not ignoring Larsen. 16 minutes is a pretty small sample.

As far as the forwards go, the Stars top penalty killer has been Eric Nystrom. He doesn't do much at even strength, but when he's on the ice for the penalty kill scoring chances run away. He's allowing .67 scoring chances per two minutes. Jamie Benn, in only 35 minutes on the penalty kill, is allowing a miniscule .45 chances per two minutes. The special teams numbers do vary a lot based on ice time so there is reason to be skeptical about them, but the results are interesting nonetheless.

And there you have it. The next scoring chance update will be after the season wraps up, and before the playoffs which will, hopefully, include your Dallas Stars. If you have any questions feel free as always to send me a Tweet or leave a comment.


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