Dallas Stars 2011-12 Scoring Chances: February

It's been a while since we've done a scoring chances update. The overall scoring chance picture is a little depressing so what better time to review it than a few hours before the Stars take on the lowly Jackets? In January we had an update chronicling the Stars Adjusted Scoring Chances. Those were adjusted for zone starts to try to put players that start primarily in the defensive zone on the same footing as those who start primarily in the offensive zone. Thanks again to George Ays of Blueshirt Banter for doing the legwork to figure out the value of a zone start.

We'll start with the overall team outlook through 52 games. The table below is how the Stars chances breakdown situationally in 2012:

P SC For SC A

ESF

ESA

PPF

PPA

5V3F

5V3A

SHF

SHA

3V5

SHF

3V5

SHA

1 192 204 151 155 37 4 0 0 5 38 0 1
2 162 225 120 165 32 5 0 0 5 49 0 1
3 180 178 146 129 27 7 1 0 5 40 0 1
4 6 13 2 8 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0
540 620 419 457 96 16 1 0 17 130 0 3

SC For = Scoring Chances For; SC Against = Scoring Chances Against; ES= Even Strength, PP= Power Play; SH = Shorthanded

The Stars are now being outchanced by 80 for the year. The second period has continued to get worse since the last time I posted updates. The Stars are now -63 scoring chances in the second period. You'll also notice that the Stars have gone upside down in the first period (this happened over the past week), and they're in serious danger of going under in the third period in short order.

After the jump you can find the player chart, but it's somewhat condensed. We'll only be looking at even strength numbers today to save some time. The first chart is the defensemen. The second chart is the forwards.

EVSCF=Even Strength Scoring Chance For; EVSC+/-= Even Strength Scoring Chance Differential; Adj SC/15 = Adjusted Scoring Chances/15 minutes; Adj SC/60= Adjusted Scoring Chances/60 minutes

# P Player GP EVSCF EVSCA EVSC +/- Adj SC/15 Adj SC/60
33 D GOLIGOSKI 41 153 133 20 0.44 1.76
3 D ROBIDAS 46 140 142 -2 0.23 0.91
6 D DALEY 49 141 161 -20 -0.02 -0.06
27 D PARDY 22 62 62 0 -0.02 -0.08
44 D SOURAY 46 129 145 -16 -0.03 -0.13
2 D GROSSMAN 48 111 141 -30 -0.21 -0.85
28 D FISTRIC 37 68 84 -16 -0.21 -0.86
36 D LARSEN 25 57 68 -11 -0.81 -3.23

Alex Goligoski is still the king of the defenders. For every 60 minutes of ice time he's generating close to two chances. The only other defender above water is Stephane Robidas. Everyone else is well below, and the player drowning the most in this water analogy is Philip Larsen. He's been protected (rightly) with a large zone start percentage since coming up, and more often than not chances are still coming at him.

The forward picture makes me weep a little...

# P Player GP EVSCF EVSCA EVSC +/- Adj SC/15 Adj SC/60
14 F BENN 47 165 95 70 1.66 6.62
73 F RYDER 52 158 128 30 0.83 3.32
17 F PETERSEN 32 25 19 6 0.69 2.77
21 F ERIKSSON 52 155 136 19 0.66 2.64
29 F OTT 46 134 115 19 0.48 1.9
11 F DOWELL 37 38 42 -4 0.04 0.15
23 F WANDELL 47 49 59 -10 -0.24 -0.96
16 F BURISH 36 59 73 -14 -0.34 -1.34
20 F DVORAK 52 94 130 -36 -0.62 -2.48
63 F RIBEIRO 45 110 147 -37 -0.69 -2.77
10 F MORROW 43 102 147 -45 -0.89 -3.55
24 F NYSTROM 47 70 107 -37 -0.89 -3.56
38 F FIDDLER 52 77 128 -51 -0.99 -3.96
81 F VINCOUR 20 20 33 -13 -1.29 -5.16

Jamie Benn is still a man among boys. He's generating 6.62 Adjusted Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time to double second place Michael Ryder. Why is Ryder so close? He's been on the wing with Benn for a few months. Toby Petersen and his easy ice time still come in third with Loui Eriksson coming in at 4th. Loui was quite a bit higher before the "demotion" to the Mike Ribeiro line. Tomas Vincour is languishing in last at -5.16, but that isn't necessarily because he's struggling defensively. We've all see his reluctance to shoot, and I imagine that covers a lot of the negative.

Enjoy the game tonight, and we'll be back in March with another update.


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