Dallas Stars 2011-12 Scoring Chances: February

by Josh Lile on Feb 9, 2012 3:43 PM CST in Dallas Stars Scoring Chances

It's been a while since we've done a scoring chances update. The overall scoring chance picture is a little depressing so what better time to review it than a few hours before the Stars take on the lowly Jackets? In January we had an update chronicling the Stars Adjusted Scoring Chances. Those were adjusted for zone starts to try to put players that start primarily in the defensive zone on the same footing as those who start primarily in the offensive zone. Thanks again to George Ays of Blueshirt Banter for doing the legwork to figure out the value of a zone start.

We'll start with the overall team outlook through 52 games. The table below is how the Stars chances breakdown situationally in 2012:

P	SC For	SC A	ESF	ESA	PPF	PPA	5V3F	5V3A	SHF	SHA	3V5 SHF	3V5 SHA
1	192	204	151	155	37	4	0	0	5	38	0	1
2	162	225	120	165	32	5	0	0	5	49	0	1
3	180	178	146	129	27	7	1	0	5	40	0	1
4	6	13	2	8	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0
	540	620	419	457	96	16	1	0	17	130	0	3

SC For = Scoring Chances For; SC Against = Scoring Chances Against; ES= Even Strength, PP= Power Play; SH = Shorthanded

The Stars are now being outchanced by 80 for the year. The second period has continued to get worse since the last time I posted updates. The Stars are now -63 scoring chances in the second period. You'll also notice that the Stars have gone upside down in the first period (this happened over the past week), and they're in serious danger of going under in the third period in short order.

After the jump you can find the player chart, but it's somewhat condensed. We'll only be looking at even strength numbers today to save some time. The first chart is the defensemen. The second chart is the forwards.

EVSCF=Even Strength Scoring Chance For; EVSC+/-= Even Strength Scoring Chance Differential; Adj SC/15 = Adjusted Scoring Chances/15 minutes; Adj SC/60= Adjusted Scoring Chances/60 minutes

#	P	Player	GP	EVSCF	EVSCA	EVSC +/-	Adj SC/15	Adj SC/60
33	D	GOLIGOSKI	41	153	133	20	0.44	1.76
3	D	ROBIDAS	46	140	142	-2	0.23	0.91
6	D	DALEY	49	141	161	-20	-0.02	-0.06
27	D	PARDY	22	62	62	0	-0.02	-0.08
44	D	SOURAY	46	129	145	-16	-0.03	-0.13
2	D	GROSSMAN	48	111	141	-30	-0.21	-0.85
28	D	FISTRIC	37	68	84	-16	-0.21	-0.86
36	D	LARSEN	25	57	68	-11	-0.81	-3.23

Alex Goligoski is still the king of the defenders. For every 60 minutes of ice time he's generating close to two chances. The only other defender above water is Stephane Robidas. Everyone else is well below, and the player drowning the most in this water analogy is Philip Larsen. He's been protected (rightly) with a large zone start percentage since coming up, and more often than not chances are still coming at him.

The forward picture makes me weep a little...

#	P	Player	GP	EVSCF	EVSCA	EVSC +/-	Adj SC/15	Adj SC/60
14	F	BENN	47	165	95	70	1.66	6.62
73	F	RYDER	52	158	128	30	0.83	3.32
17	F	PETERSEN	32	25	19	6	0.69	2.77
21	F	ERIKSSON	52	155	136	19	0.66	2.64
29	F	OTT	46	134	115	19	0.48	1.9
11	F	DOWELL	37	38	42	-4	0.04	0.15
23	F	WANDELL	47	49	59	-10	-0.24	-0.96
16	F	BURISH	36	59	73	-14	-0.34	-1.34
20	F	DVORAK	52	94	130	-36	-0.62	-2.48
63	F	RIBEIRO	45	110	147	-37	-0.69	-2.77
10	F	MORROW	43	102	147	-45	-0.89	-3.55
24	F	NYSTROM	47	70	107	-37	-0.89	-3.56
38	F	FIDDLER	52	77	128	-51	-0.99	-3.96
81	F	VINCOUR	20	20	33	-13	-1.29	-5.16

Jamie Benn is still a man among boys. He's generating 6.62 Adjusted Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time to double second place Michael Ryder. Why is Ryder so close? He's been on the wing with Benn for a few months. Toby Petersen and his easy ice time still come in third with Loui Eriksson coming in at 4th. Loui was quite a bit higher before the "demotion" to the Mike Ribeiro line. Tomas Vincour is languishing in last at -5.16, but that isn't necessarily because he's struggling defensively. We've all see his reluctance to shoot, and I imagine that covers a lot of the negative.

Enjoy the game tonight, and we'll be back in March with another update.

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Comments

Special teams.

Geeeeez,

And those second periods. This is really eye popping

Defending Big D

by Brad Gardner on Feb 9, 2012 9:23 PM CST reply actions

The reason Kari likes it here

Is that we’re about as bad as the Thrashers from a few years ago, defensively.

by jabudi on Feb 10, 2012 10:32 AM CST up reply actions

The shorthanded differential

So we’ve generated 17 chances shorthanded in the past month and given up 130 in 96 “attempts”? And this is while being conservative on the PP?

by jabudi on Feb 10, 2012 10:35 AM CST reply actions

No, this is an update for Feb.

This is the entire season up to faceoff last night.

They’ve generated 17 shorthanded chances, and given up 130, for the year.

Defending Big D Check it out
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by Josh Lile on Feb 10, 2012 11:16 AM CST up reply actions