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Defending Big D Mailbag, Volume 2: Is Jamie Benn The Next Mike Modano?

So far, off to a great start, but is it fair to compare Jamie Benn to Mike Modano?

One subject that everyone seems to ask me about lately is Jamie Benn, and how exactly he stacks up to Mike Modano. I've been asked if it's fair to compare the two, if I think Benn can fill the shoes, and if I think Benn could put up the same kind of numbers over his career. These are all different wants of asking the same questions, really, and the answer isn't exactly as cut and dry as most would hope.

Before comparing the two players, it's best to answer if indeed it is fair to do so. The way I look at it, all is fair in sports fandom. It simply comes with the territory. Jamie Benn isn't the first athlete to be scrutinized and compared to the ghosts of franchise history. It's simply human nature to try and compare someone new to someone you're already familiar with. It happens in all sports at every level.

Sidney Crosby, Eric Lindros, and Alexandre Daigle were all the next Wayne Gretzky at one point in time. Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, and Lebron James were all the next Michael Jordan. Steve Young had to live up to Joe Montana's legend, and Aaron Rodgers had to fill Brett Favre's shoes. I'm sure the young stud quarterback for your local high school football team is still compared to the great athletes that led your alma mater to State in the 1980's. It's silly, but it's a fair topic of discussion, simply because that's what fans do.

Star-divide

The tricky part with Benn and Modano is that Mike Modano was so much more to this team than a first line center. To compare these two athletes, you have to look at everything they bring to the table, both on and off the ice. In Mike Modano's case, that is where the bar is set highest. Mike wasn't just the best player on the team and face of the franchise for twenty years. He was also an ambassador and a salesman, familiarizing a new fanbase with the world of NHL hockey, and becoming synonymous with the Dallas Stars in the process.

On the ice, the comparisons become a bit more clear cut. They're both big bodied, home-grown draft picks, playing the same position for the same franchise. Their styles may differ, but at least there are tangible stats you can view to get an idea of where they rank amongst their peers and track performance from there. Jamie's sample size is much smaller than Mike's, however. Given that the most impressive attribute of Modano's game is longevity and consistency over a long period of time, that's where the comparisons get even muddier.

When the Minnesota North Stars moved to Texas, they had a leg up on the competition. If Dallas hadn't gotten the Stars through relocation, they likely would have gotten one of the many upcoming expansion teams instead. Whether or not those start-up franchises would have had the staying power as the Dallas Stars is certainly debatable. In order for a franchise to be viable, it has to be profitable. In order for it to be profitable, it has to be popular.

Having a ready-made franchise, with established chemistry, management, and identity went a long way in selling the sport to this non-traditional market. Front and center in this regard was budding young superstar Mike Modano. He was everything you'd want to sell the sport to the State of Texas. He was glamorous, out-going, attractive, flashy, and out-spoken. In an era of Dallas Cowboys names ending up on police blotters as often as they did Pro-Bowl rosters, it didn't hurt that Mike was also a model citizen... and an American.

Would Sergei Fedorov, Teemu Selanne, or Peter Forsberg been able to capture the attention and adoration of a bunch of disinterested Texans? It's hard to tell, but there's no denying that Mike Modano seemed tailor made for the City of Dallas. Granted, Jamie Benn's home province of British Columbia isn't exactly Siberia or Japan or Jolly Old England, in terms of culture shock... but there's just something about being able to cheer for your team's superstar in both domestic and international competition. Jamie is ours now, but when push comes to shove, he dons the red and black of Canada, and will probably end up breaking our hearts in the process.

The climate has changed, however. We're not discussing if Jamie Benn would have been able to sell the sport to an uninitiated group of sports fans at Reunion Arena almost 20 years ago. That said, Jamie Benn is in a surprisingly similar situation, all things considered. Interest in the Dallas Stars is at an all-time low right now. Wednesday morning, FOX4's coverage of the Stars loss to the Phoenix Coyotes claimed just about as much air time as the pre-commercial-break teaser. "The Stars played, they lost, they'll play again tomorrow night."

Like it or not, Jamie Benn is the new face of the franchise, and it's on his shoulders to help sell this team to the city of Dallas all over again. It's on his shoulders to make this team relevant again, and I honestly think he is on the right track to doing so. We got to see a glimpse of his personality at the NHL's All-Star weekend in Ottawa, where he took home the accuracy shooting honors as the feel good story of the weekend, after being selected second to last in the draft, and overcoming an emergency appendectomy.

His personality, while understated, might actually be exactly what the doctor ordered. Fan favorites Mike Modano and Brett Hull have occasionally worn on fans for not knowing exactly when to keep quiet. Jamie Benn is the loveable humble underdog that sports fans love to gravitate towards. He was drafted 129th overall, compared to Modano's 1st overall. He is shy, quiet, polite, and workmanlike. Some think Benn needs to break out of his shell a little to attract fans, but I think the onus should be on the Stars for putting Benn out there as he is.

There's something very endearing and genuine about the guy and his story, and I think he can sell the sport without resorting to changing who he is or how he acts. Not every beloved Dallas athlete has to be on a level of Michael Irvin or give humorously over-the-top politically incorrect interview answers to endear themselves to the fanbase. Of course winning will be paramount to any long term success of the team, as well as Jamie Benn's legacy, but the same was true in Modano's time.

The first step to putting a winning product on the ice is production from their young core, including Jamie Benn and [The Next Jere Lehtinen?] Loui Eriksson. If Jamie Benn is going to match the level of clout within this organization that Mike Modano enjoys, he is going to have to walk the walk even if he chooses not to talk all the talk. What makes this comparison less cut-and-dry is the atmosphere of the game itself. When Mike Modano came into the league, some teams were still playing a brand of firewagon hockey that was capable of turning solid offensive players into 100 point dynamos. Scoring was up, defense was down.

Things leveled out a bit as he got older, and the league entered what some call the "Dead Puck Era," which is where Modano had the most team success, despite seeing his numbers slip. Mike Modano had his peak offensive seasons in 1992-1994, as he scored 93 points in both the final season in Minnesota and the first season in Dallas. He also notched 50 goals in 1993-94 for high career high. Interestingly enough, that was when Mike was old as Jamie Benn is right now.

The easy comparison would then be to mention that Jamie Benn is nowhere close to a 93 point pace, or a 50 goal pace, thus giving Modano the easy victory in regards to on-ice performance... but this is where the eras make it tricky. Every single player in the top 10 of scoring in 1992-93 had over 120 points. Compare that to the league that Jamie Benn is playing in, where last season only Daniel Sedin had over 100, and 10th place was our own Brad Richards with a relatively paltry 77.

Mike Modano's peak offensive season, he wasn't even in the league's top 20 points-per-game like Jamie Benn currently is for the Dallas Stars. This isn't to diminish what Mike Modano did for the Dallas Stars, which can't be measured. It's just to level the playing field and remind everyone that Jamie Benn is playing in an era of extensive coaching, elaborate systems, and not a whole lot of offensive output, proving the disparity in point totals between Modano and Benn isn't quite as large as they look to the naked eye.

Is it possible that Jamie Benn catches up to Mike Modano's offensive numbers with time? Absolutely. Does it really matter? I don't think so. Mike Modano isn't remembered for scoring over 1,300 points and 561 goals. He's remembered for being the face of the franchise during the most success years this team has ever had, and you better believe Jamie Benn has an opportunity to match that over the next 15+ years.

It's only natural to compare one franchise player to another, regardless of how fair it is to heap expectations on the shoulders of a young kid trying to carve his own niche. So to answer the question, is Jamie Benn the next Mike Modano? No. He is the first Jamie Benn, and he has the rest of his career to prove that that's exactly what the Stars need right now. Mike Modano's time is over, and Jamie Benn's time has just begun.

Rather than worrying about how one franchise player stacks up against the other, lets just be grateful to have another one to watch. The sky is the limit for Jamie Benn, so lets not place a ceiling or a floor around him.

Also, remember to send in your questions to Defending Big D for next week's Mailbag.

All you need on your end is an email address or a twitter handle. We can be reached on the following accounts:

Email - dbdmailbag@gmail.com
Twitter - @dbdmailbag

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Great article.

I’m definitely glad that we’ve got another solid superstar in the making here.

by Travis Drybread on Feb 10, 2012 12:10 PM CST reply actions  

Can not agree more

Excellent article and a fantastic point.

The king is dead..long live Jamie Benn

by loomisc on Feb 10, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

is benn the next modano?

no, there will never be another mike modano. but jamie benn is something else, he’s jamie benn. different playing styles, different backgrounds, and different personalities. but there is no doubt that benn is the face of this franchise and future captain. the kids aren’t out playing street hockey pretending to be modano anymore like i was growing up, now they’re pretending to be benn. instead of scoring the slick highlight reel goal, benn scores the slick highlight reel goal, beats the shit out of your captain and puts your dangler on his ass. say hello to the new breed of stars player.

by the way worst e-news ever...

by heyitsthatguy! on Feb 10, 2012 12:35 PM CST reply actions  

His personality reminds me of Aikman back when he first started with the Cowboys

He was quiet and humble but made his point out on the field. Of course, Aikman the announcer is now a million miles from how was back then.

I think he has the potential to have the same productivity as Modano given the point adjustments for today’s NHL. He is already way ahead of Modano in defensive ability. Actually, I’ve always thought that he reminded me a lot of Modano in the way he moves out on the ice…but I have yet to see a jersey flap :)

In Benn’s case though I think it is important not to put the weight of the entire franchise on his shoulders just yet. As a first-round pick I think Modano was ready for it out of the gates. Benn will come along as the leader in his own style.

by RB16 on Feb 10, 2012 12:46 PM CST reply actions  

Benn averages 1 minute less than the Sedins per game

So… that’s about 5.3% more TOI per game. Benn is 17-31-48, so assuming that his production would increase 5.3% with 1 minute more TOI per game, he’d be at about 18-33-51 (rounding up).

That of course assumes that your points go up linearly with an increase in ice time, which might be true for a minute but certainly isn’t true as the times are dropped or raised significantly more, as we’ve seen with players who have a heck of at time getting anything going down at 5 or 11 minutes per game, but perform significantly better up at Benn’s range.

Rather than give Benn another minute per night, I’d rather line him up next to Eriksson and a true first line RW that we don’t have on this team and with a healthy, productive Morrow-Ribeiro-Ryder second line to compete with the first line for the opposition’s attention. Benn’s production is less about his TOI and more about the quality of his linemates.

by AlexinCA on Feb 10, 2012 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I think he means this

The Sedins average 77% offensive zone starts, while not playing against the toughest opponents with extremely high Corsi Rel QoT.

Jamie Benn is sitting at 48% offensive zone starts, plays against top competition and does with lower rated teammates.

I think. Could be wrong.

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by Brandon Worley on Feb 10, 2012 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Ah...

That makes more sense.

by AlexinCA on Feb 10, 2012 2:46 PM CST up reply actions  

They play historically easy minutes, yes.

The zone starts for Malhotra, for instance, broke behindthenet’s graphing function because they get so few offensive zone starts.

Benn isn’t a Sedin though. Putting him completely in the offensive zone, in the context of the Stars roster, doesn’t give maximum value. He’ can actually play some D.

Ribeiro needs the Sedin minutes…and he’s getting them lately.

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by Josh Lile on Feb 10, 2012 2:48 PM CST up reply actions  

No, Jamie Benn is NOT Mike Modano

Mike Modano was once considered a top 5 center in the league (with Sakic, Forsberg, Sundin, Federov) and he did it with his two-way play and speed to burn. While Benn is fast and hits hard, I don’t think he will be a top 5 center. Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Sedin, Datsuk, Thornton, Kopitar, Toews, Staal, Getzlaf, are all better. Do I think Benn can reach that level? Maybe. Maybe not. I’d like to think so. But in order to be in Mike Modano’s class, you gotta be top 5 in the NHL. Taking off the blinders, it’s easy to say there’s a lot of top-notch competition out there for top 5. And it’s real hard to say that Benn makes that short list. Time will tell, but on his projected path, it’s not certain.

by riteus on Feb 10, 2012 12:59 PM CST reply actions  

In addition

As of right now, I believe Benn is on par with Zetterberg, Tavares, Spezza, Couture, Backstrom, Marleau. So he’s not top 5, not even top 10. But perhaps top 20. That is far far away from Modano’s stature. I’m not saying Benn can’t get there. But to vault him up to “is he the next top 5 center” is waaaayyyyy to premature and not justified. He needs to crack 80pts before he can even be considered and he hasn’t once done that. Meanwhile, it’s considered an off year if a player like Crosby, Malkin, and Datsuk or even Stamkos doesn’t hit 90 points. Big BIG difference.

by riteus on Feb 10, 2012 1:05 PM CST up reply actions  

The best thing about Jamie is his humbleness

The humble quiet players are always my favorites: from Zubov to Lehtinen, and now Benn.

by Ronin56 on Feb 10, 2012 1:37 PM CST reply actions  

I saw it noted one time above...

But he is also not American. Not that, that should be any sort of defining factor or divider… but no one would dare compare and american to be the next Sidney Crosby or Wayne Gretzky. There is a sense of national pride in hockey, sort of like in the soccer world. So To compare a Canadian likewise to an American legend in hockey would be not offensive, but crossing some type of line of comparison. I don’t know maybe I am wrong, but I have a Canadian buddy who would scoff at the idea of an American being the next Crosby/Gretzky/Roy. It’s laughable but is it fair?

by Jedi Hat Tricks on Feb 10, 2012 2:06 PM CST reply actions  

Canadians...

I get their sense of pride in “their” sport, but to say that talent is defined by what border you popped out in is absurd. Canadians have a long history of having the best players and the most best players, but every year, more players from other countries get drafted in the first round. Eventually there will be a “best” that is from somewhere else.

by AlexinCA on Feb 10, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

exactly

MO is the greatest American born player in the history of the NHL. That should mean a lot. I just want Bennie to be the best Jamie Benn. Mo was the face of a franchise the moment he was drafted. He swallowed some pride when hitch got here and turned into a top 5 2-way player. He should have been a selke award nominee. He played on one leg in the Stanley cup playoffs for fricks sake. Colorado had the duo of sakic/forsberg, Detroit had yzerman/fedorov. We had #9. After Hull, he didn’t play with a dynamic winger for the rest of his career. He should have reached 1500 points.

Benn is a different player. We don’t even know how good he can be still. He is still learning the C position. Put a dynamic wing on his rt side with loui and were talking top 5 trio in the entire NHL. I’d rather him be the next Stevie Y or Ron Francis, but no matter what be the best Dallas Star for the next decade.

Its supranatural, you know, a higher level than supernatural

by Bayouboy99 on Feb 10, 2012 2:57 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Good stuff.

Trevor Daley is my cup of tea.

by Henri Muroke on Feb 10, 2012 2:57 PM CST reply actions  

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