Dallas Stars Game 45 Scoring Chances: Another Loser Point

Game two of the "This Is Why Jamie Benn Is By Far The Stars Most Valuable Player" saga ended last night in a 3-2 shootout loss for your Dallas Stars at the hands of the Detroit Red Wings. Both games without Benn have been enjoyable to watch if you appreciate the sport at it's base level. No, there haven't been many goals without Benn around, but the Stars have clearly stepped up the work ethic to try to compensate for the lack of offense with both Benn and Mike Ribeiro out of the lineup. The result has been two well-played, enjoyable games.

The scoring chances from the Stars previous games can be found here. If you look at the St. Louis game compared to the Wings game you'll notice a trend that is probably going to continue until Benn and/or Ribeiro return. The Stars fight hard, stay in the game for a while, and ultimately hold on for dear life as the opposition gets stronger due to the talent disparity.

The Blues outchanced the Stars 9-2 in the third period on the 16th. Last night the Wings outchanced the Stars 8-3 in the third after the Stars had a noticeable scoring chance advantage of 14-6 through two. The Stars played tough. Richard Bachman held the Stars in the game late with a few sparkling saves. The effort, while encouraging, was also very frustrating. It makes one wonder where this team would be in the standings with consistent efforts like they had against the Wings last night. That's probably another post for another time. For now, content yourself with both the player report and detailed scoring report from the 2-1 shootout loss after the jump.

*You will also be able to find details of a useful new application of this scoring chance data that I will be using tomorrow after the jump.

I promise this isn't going to be entirely about Jamie Benn. The Benn horse can get beaten into the ground quickly. It's true that even without Benn the Stars have to do whatever they can to pick up points if they hope to make the playoffs. I get it.

...but, the results without him in the lineup show how valuable he is so it's at least worth touching on. Benn routinely has been heavily leaning towards the positive side of the scoring chance ledger on a game to game basis. Against the Wings every forward group looks similar on the stat sheet.

Every forward on the Stars is either -1, even, or +1 at even strength except Michael Ryder. This myth (narrative) of team depth/"All for one, one for all"/"We're all equal" actually looks true with Benn removed from the lineup.* The defense corps is similar with the exception of the Nicklas Grossman/Trevor Daley tandem. They've been playing well since being paired together, and they were your top players at even strength last night. Daley, in particular with his +3.

*No, I'm not ignoring Ribeiro. The Ribeiro unit has been a negative or even in most games this season.

The Stars host the Lightning Thursday night still shorthanded, and desperately needing points. Before you settle in for the game settle in for an interesting application of the scoring chance data. I'll explain in more detail in a post tomorrow, but we now have the ability to adjust scoring chances to account for offensive zone starts. Since players that start in the offensive zone are more likely to generate a scoring chance than those starting in the defensive zone they had an advantage in these stats until recently. Thanks to the work of George Ays of Blueshirt Banter this data can be worked with a little closer to better analyze who is giving the Stars more production on a nightly basis. Watch for that tomorrow, and if you have any scoring chance questions leave a comment or send me a Tweet @Josh1220.

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