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Austin Smith: Next Season's Matt Read?

I noticed the other day that Smith and Matt Read, who has 13 goals and 27 points in 40 games for the Flyers as a rookie, look pretty similar on paper. Read also played D1 college hockey, they both put up similar college numbers, both play right wing, and both are about the same size. Smith is on pace for a much better senior season though, and while he's doing it at age 23, Read was 24 his senior season at Bemidji State.

A look at the numbers after the jump.

Star-divide

Austin Smith
Right Wing
Born Nov 7 1988  -- Dallas, TX 
Height 5.10 -- Weight 165 -- Shoots R


Selected by Dallas Stars round 5 #128 overall 2007 NHL Entry Draft

                                            --- Regular Season ---  ---- Playoffs ----
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  GP   G   A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007-08  Penticton Vees              BCHL   60   32   35   67   42  15  11  11  22  12
2008-09  Colgate University          ECAC   37   17   14   31   24
2009-10  Colgate University          ECAC   36   16   25   41   20
2010-11  Colgate University          ECAC   41   10   21   31   36
2011-12  Colgate University          ECAC   22   22   13   35   24
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

___________

Matt Read
Forward
Born Jun 14 1986  -- Ilderton, ONT 
Height 5.10 -- Weight 185 -- Shoots R


                                            --- Regular Season ---  ---- Playoffs ----
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  GP   G   A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005-06  Milton Icehawks             OPJHL  48   34   34   68   52
2006-07  Des Moines Buccaneers       USHL   58   28   34   62  110   8   2   0   2   6
2007-08  Bemidji State University    CHA    36    9   18   27   37
2008-09  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   15   25   40   50
2009-10  Bemidji State University    CHA    37   19   22   41   32
2010-11  Bemidji State University    WCHA   37   22   13   35   34
2010-11  Adirondack Phantoms         AHL    11    7    6   13    6  --  --  --  --  --
2011-12  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    40   13   14   27    2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         NHL Totals                         40   13   14   27    2

While you can't just directly compare stats and project X player will be the same as Y player, looking at Read made me think of Smith, and he's a player I'm excited to see next season. It wouldn't shock me if he made the jump early on to the NHL and stuck. A fast, defensively responsible right wing who can score goals is just what the Stars need.

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You can't really compare the two.

Matt Read is significantly exceeding expectations. The NHL equivalency for the NCAA is .41. So, Read would be expected to generate 41% of his NCAA production in the NHL.

He’s at about a point per game so you’d expect 33-40 points as a pro. He’s already at 27.

Whats interesting about Austin Smith is that his production this season is significantly higher than Read’s last year in college. Based on his production this season you’d expect about 54 points in the NHL, but his current season is a small sample. Smith’s career is about a point a game though, so if given top 6 ice time he’d be looking at the 33 point range. If he can develop defensively thats a solid NHLer, but who knows.

Defending Big D Check it out
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by Josh Lile on Jan 15, 2012 1:07 PM CST reply actions  

You cant really compare the two*

in the sense that Read is overperforming based on expectations.

Otherwise they’re pretty similar.

Defending Big D Check it out
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"You guys are talking about living forever like it’s a real thing, but I bust out a man shoving his head into a vagina, and it’s srs time?"
--iorange555 8/23/2011

by Josh Lile on Jan 15, 2012 1:08 PM CST up reply actions  

We can hope.

Love to see the young guys succeed.

by Travis Drybread on Jan 15, 2012 3:25 PM CST reply actions  

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