Hockeymetrics: Finding Out The 'Who' in The 'How ___ Went, So Did the Stars' in 2012

by Brandon Bibb on Aug 21, 2011 6:53 AM CDT in Dallas Stars Analysis

Is the guy on the left the Star who really stirred the drink last year?

One metric I haven't really looked at since starting this series on Defending Big D is looking at who scores the goals when the Stars win. Not really sure why that is because it is a metric with some meaning.

Mind you, I'd rather measure something like the metric co-developed by a friend of mine, Marc Foster, than this one. I don't think it digs deep enough.

But it's still worth a look see since we've got to penalty kill for the next three weeks. And because the answer to the question in the title, depending on whether you consider scoring more goals in wins or scoring a greater percentage of overall goals in wins, may not be so obvious.

And for the purposes of this exercise, I didn't discriminate between results earned in regulation and those earned in OT or the shootout.

And right off the bat, here's the list sorted by the Stars leaders in goal scoring in 42 wins.

						In Wins			Pct
No	Pos	Name	G	A	P	G	A	P	G	A	P
10	L	MORROW, BRENDEN	33	23	56	22	16	38	0.667	0.696	0.679
21	L	ERIKSSON, LOUI	26	47	73	18	27	45	0.692	0.574	0.616
14	L	BENN, JAMIE	22	37	59	16	23	39	0.727	0.622	0.661
18	L	NEAL, JAMES	22	16	38	15	9	24	0.682	0.563	0.632
63	C	RIBEIRO, MIKE	19	50	69	14	32	46	0.737	0.640	0.667
91	C	RICHARDS, BRAD	24	49	73	12	37	49	0.500	0.755	0.671
29	C	OTT, STEVE	13	21	34	10	12	22	0.769	0.571	0.647
6	D	DALEY, TREVOR	8	20	28	7	12	19	0.875	0.600	0.679
23	C	WANDELL, TOM	10	2	12	7	1	8	0.700	0.500	0.667
16	R	BURISH, ADAM	8	6	14	5	4	9	0.625	0.667	0.643
3	D	ROBIDAS, STEPHANE	5	27	32	4	19	23	0.800	0.704	0.719
13	R	BARCH, KRYSTOFER	2	1	3	2	0	2	1.000	0.000	0.667
24	R	SEGAL, BRANDON	5	5	10	2	2	4	0.400	0.400	0.400
27	C	WILLIAMS, JASON	2	3	5	2	1	3	1.000	0.333	0.600
37	D	SKRASTINS, KARLIS	3	6	9	2	3	5	0.667	0.500	0.556
44	D	WOYWITKA, JEFF	2	9	11	2	5	7	1.000	0.556	0.636
28	D	FISTRIC, MARK	2	2	4	1	2	3	0.500	1.000	0.750
33	D	GOLIGOSKI, ALEX	5	10	15	1	5	6	0.200	0.500	0.400
2	D	GROSSMAN, NICKLAS	1	10	11	0	8	8	0.000	0.800	0.727
5	D	NISKANEN, MATT	0	6	6	0	6	6	0.000	1.000	1.000
11	C	GAGNON, AARON	0	2	2	0	1	1	0.000	0.500	0.500
12	R	SAWADA, RAYMOND	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000
17	C	PETERSEN, TOBY	2	4	6	0	2	2	0.000	0.500	0.333
20	C	SUTHERBY, BRIAN	2	2	4	0	1	1	0.000	0.500	0.250
22	C	SCEVIOUR, COLTON	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000
36	D	LARSEN, PHILIP	0	2	2	0	1	1	0.000	0.500	0.500
39	C	MORIN, TRAVIS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000
48	L	WATHIER, FRANCIS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.000	0.000

I'll be honest. When I embarked on this journey in hockeymetrics, I expected Brad to be ranked higher on the goal scoring list.

To his credit, 67.1% of the points he scored were scored in wins. That ranks only behind Brenden Morrow in that department amongst the forwards.

But not only is he ranked 6th on the club in goals scored in wins, he scored the same number of goals in Stars wins that he scored in Stars losses.

12 each.

The other thing that jumps out at me is the number of percentages amongst the Stars top 6 that are in the 60% range and above for not only goals, but assists and points.

Take out Richards' percentage and you'll see that the other six Stars forwards who got the most of amount of minutes didn't have a goal scoring percentage in wins of under 66.7%.

I'd expect to see this on an offensively challenged club. And to be sure the Stars did rank 4th in their own division in goal scoring.

Still, this was just a little surprising.

But not as surprising as Matt Niskanen's line as a Dallas Star. He didn't score any goals, but he picked up six assists. When his name appeared on the stat sheet, the Stars won.

When he didn't, they lost.

So I guess Niskanen is the answer to the question that I posed in the title. Which means we're all screwed for next season.

Warning: The previous paragraph is chock full of sarcasm. Please do not issue a serious response in the comments to this paragraph, but further sarcasm is highly encouraged.

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Comments

I knew Nisky will be the death of Stars, somehow :-)

by iHorses on Aug 21, 2011 8:00 AM CDT reply actions

Aww Jeez

there you go again pointing out all our weak spots, pretty bleak outlook with Nisky gone (for our opposition i mean) Neal was an absolute animal for the Penguins last season after the trade (and by animal i mean a small cute furry one that doesn’t bite)
Kidding aside i’m excited about next season and have already started putting up bets that we’ll make the playoffs!

by alandbrown2023 on Aug 21, 2011 10:36 AM CDT reply actions

The answer is obvious

Put Barch on the top line. They win every time he scores a goal, so let him score some goals!

by Rhinomatic on Aug 21, 2011 1:46 PM CDT reply actions

Its Been There Staring Us In The Face

Now we have the chart to prove it. Lol

by DTCBob on Aug 21, 2011 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Damn, you beat me to it

by jabudi on Aug 22, 2011 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions

I've been saying that all off-season.

Barch needs more ice time.

by Cajun_Kowboy_ on Aug 22, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions

???

All I can see that this stat tells us is…
A. That our own mediocre players score well against mediocre teams than against good ones. (And hince when we play against mediocre teams, then we are more likely to win.

B. this statistic shows the names of people who score in games we were going to win anyway. (fun to goals to watch yes, but they don’t change playoff standings one iota.)

A more meaningful question to me is….“Who on our team keeps trying to score even when we are down a goal or two?” or “Who is always trying to generate scoring regardless of what the scoreboard says?”

This answer to this question are players that are undervalued, yet they statistically would not have shown up well in “Hockeymetrics: Finding Out The ‘Who’ in The ‘How _ Went, So Did the Stars’ in 2011”. article

by KingPodda on Aug 21, 2011 5:41 PM CDT reply actions

I agree completely

These stats need context, like for example, Jamie Benn scored that game winner in Phoenix, and that was a clutch goal that shows up in this. But Loui Eriksson’s two goals against Phoenix in a different game also show up in this, and we could have won that game without either of those.

by 182below0 on Aug 21, 2011 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions

You can get a glimmer of who scores

when the chips are down, when things aren’t going our way, by looking at who scores in losses. Not surprisingly, Brad Richards led the way. He scored half his goals (12) in losing efforts. Seems to indicate a player who won’t give up. Loui also potted 12 in losing games. Morrow got 11, though that was a much smaller percentage of his team leading 33. Jamie Benn only got 6 of his 22 in losing efforts and Ribero only 5 of his 19.

by 1paniolo on Aug 22, 2011 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Apparently Woywitka and Barch were also the keys last season

According to the table, we always won if they scored a goal.

So…our secret weapons last year were Niskanen, Woywitka and Barch?

Insert Woywitka WTF look here

by RB16 on Aug 22, 2011 9:11 AM CDT reply actions

Done.

"He punched the highlights out of her hair... he punched the HIGHLIGHT'S out of her HAIR!" -- Young Neil
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by Tsudbury on Aug 22, 2011 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions

So whatever game this was, we know for a fact that we won it.

"He punched the highlights out of her hair... he punched the HIGHLIGHT'S out of her HAIR!" -- Young Neil
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by Tsudbury on Aug 22, 2011 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions

Awesome...thanks

Even though he is gone from our team…I will never forget the face

Good ol Jeff “the W stands for Win” Woywitka

by RB16 on Aug 22, 2011 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions

This needs 1 more stat to give a more accurate picture...

of what I think you were trying to demonstrate.

Game winning goals would provide a more accurate representation of who is clutch.

Good read though…

"The early bird may get the worm, but it's the second mouse who gets the cheese" - Daryl "Razor" Reaugh

by Sylent Jay on Aug 22, 2011 10:42 AM CDT reply actions

Point very well taken

I mentioned my friend, Marc Foster, in this piece.

Several years ago, he and gentleman by the name of Chris Apple, wrote a series of hockeymetrics posts for CNN/SI. One of their posts touched on the very topic you brought up.

And for awhile, I tracked the Stars goal scoring using his methodology. The problem was, I didn’t have data from the rest of the league to compare it to, so I stopped doing it.