Dallas Stars October Scoring Chances Update

NHL teams have counted scoring chance data for a long time without making it available to the hockey-loving public. The goal of the Scoring Chance Project is to make this information available to anyone that wants to come to a greater understanding of what exactly is happening on the ice. The individual game reports have been fun to put together, but I'm more excited about this post. Today I present to you the cumulative scoring chance data for the first 11 games of the Stars season.

There will be some terms you've never seen before because they've never been used in this context on DBD, or I'm making the terms up to describe an idea. In either case I'm going to make every effort to explain myself as clearly as possible, but if something isn't clear definitely let me know. Also, this information isn't perfect, but it doesn't need to be perfect to be valuable. Some of the recorded chances are debatable. If you have any questions about how the chances are recorded let me point you to this post.

When you follow the jump you're going to see a massive chart, and I apologize for that in advance. But, thems the breaks. The nature of this post makes a massive chart a necessary evil. So, with this wordy (possibly unnecessary) introduction over click the link below to see how the scoring chance data breaks down over the Stars first 11 games

The table below is a representation of the scoring chances generated by your Dallas Stars so far in 2012. Before you gaze at it, fall in love with some players, cuss some other players, and ultimately (like me) draw irrational conclusions allow me to provide some quick definitions.

Obvious:

# = Player Number, P = Position, Player = Player Name, GP = Games Played

Not as obvious:

EV TOI: Even Strength Time on Ice, EVSCF = Even Strength Scoring Chances For, EVSCA = Even Strength Scoring Chances Against

Needs More Definition

EVSCA+/- = Even Strength Scoring Chances Against Plus Minus; This is the difference between how many chances are generated when a player is on the ice minus chances that are given up when a player is on the ice

EVSC +/- 60 = EVSCA +/- per 60 minutes; The idea here is to relate what value a player would contribute if he were to play a full game on ice. This allows us to see who is generating the most net positive or negative scoring chances when they're on ice. The chart is sorted by this number.

PP +/- 60 = EVSC +/- 60 applied to the powerplay. This is based off of the same methodology as the Even Strength data ([Scoring Chances For - Scoring Chances Against]*[60/Time on Ice]), but the Power Play numbers. I just didn't post the data due to space constraints.

SH +/- 60 = Same as above, but for Short Handed situations

# P Player GP EV TOI EVSCF EVSCA EVSC +/- EVSC +/-60 PP+/-60 SH+/-60
33 D GOLIGOSKI 11 194.73 53 29 24 9.07 19.16 -31.58
14 F BENN 11 157.13 38 17 21 8.02 19.12 -30.15
29 F OTT 11 158.75 44 26 18 6.80 18.43 -31.79
27 D PARDY 5 85.43 25 16 9 6.32 0.00 -30.61
21 F ERIKSSON 11 158.82 34 21 13 4.91 16.68 -25.74
17 F PETERSEN 5 30.82 5 3 2 3.89 0.00 0.00
3 D ROBIDAS 11 181.7 38 36 2 0.66 20.70 -34.64
16 F BURISH 10 96.98 17 16 1 0.62 0.00 -29.07
20 F DVORAK 11 126.62 22 26 -4 -1.90 0.00 -31.24
23 F WANDELL 8 63.1 9 11 -2 -1.90 0.00 -54.55
73 F RYDER 11 148.3 29 34 -5 -2.02 18.79 0.00
44 D SOURAY 11 171.15 31 37 -6 -2.10 20.22 -32.81
28 D FISTRIC 6 85.43 10 13 -3 -2.11 0.00 -34.65
63 F RIBEIRO 11 167.33 38 45 -7 -2.51 16.90 -26.58
38 F FIDDLER 11 119.13 18 23 -5 -2.52 0.00 -26.88
6 D DALEY 11 180.07 31 42 -11 -3.67 9.86 -29.78
10 F MORROW 11 153.83 31 41 -10 -3.90 17.40 -10.20
24 F NYSTROM 6 64.68 4 9 -5 -4.64 0.00 -25.97
13 F BARCH 3 19.38 1 3 -2 -6.19 0.00 0.00
11 F DOWELL 9 64.47 6 13 -7 -6.51 0.00 -31.58
2 D GROSSMAN 8 125.55 10 26 -16 -7.65 0.00 -13.54
36 D LARSEN 3 37.23 4 9 -5 -8.06 0.00 -32.09
81 F VINCOUR 3 24.58 5 12 -7 -17.09 0.00 0.00

 

Some thoughts:

* Guys with zeros for power play and short handed values have little or no special teams time.

* Alex Goligoski leads the Stars in ice time, and in scoring chances generated. Despite his even strength dominance he's been the Stars third best defenseman on the power play. Stephane Robidas and Sheldon Souray have been beastly with the extra man.

* Adam Pardy has been playing with Goligoski for most of his ice time so his numbers are inflated.

* Keep context in mind. Nicklas Grossman hasn't been as bad as these numbers suggest, but he also hasn't been very good. If you're interested in the context I'd suggest clicking here.

* As you may notice, the guys at the bottom are either marginalized or gone. Vincour and Larsen are in the AHL. Grossman is here and struggling. The three above them are playing fourth line minutes.

There you have it. If you have any questions let me know. In a few days I'll get you guys access to the database I've been compiling. It's almost ready to be presented to those interested. I have one more section to edit, and I need to get the key done. As soon as those are complete (tomorrow or Friday) you will all have access.

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