Fans' Predictions - Dallas Stars Horoscope for February

With my first ever fan post, I'd like to do some analysis based upon DefendingBigD fan predictions.  As a fun activity Stars fans were asked in January to provide predictions of the team's performance for the second half of the season.  I barely have time to keep up with our team, much less the league as a whole, so I did not provide predictions as I felt they would be ill-informed.  I do, however, love statistics - and not just in the "Mike Ribeiro has 10 goals and 34 assists" variety.  I like real statistics with predictive power, and I've decided to perform a little bit of analysis on the fan predictions.  Keep in mind that this is still all for fun and really has no bearing on actual team performance, so don't plan your ticket purchases based on my analysis!

Since the inputs are based on outcome (Win, Loss, OTW/L, SOW/L) I've normalized everything to simply points per game (PPG).  The average fan prediction is that our Stars will accumulate 55 out of the possible 82 points for the second half of the season, an average of 1.31 PPG, with a standard deviation of 0.36.  For this analysis I'm going to say that a win (Regulation, OT, or SO) is anything above 1.25, a regulation loss is anything below 0.95, and a point-gain loss is in between.  Using these cutoffs the aggregate fan predictions of January would be:  5 correct, 2 incorrect.  One could also say this is just an optimistic fan base predicting against a team with a hot streak, but this is all for fun, right?

Now, for your Dallas Stars horoscope through February:

Look for your team to rebound after two brutal away games in Canada.  The Oilers will continue to incur the wrath of the AAC as the Stars beat them decisively at home tonight.  The game Tuesday against the Canucks will feature a revitalized Stars team looking for payback, and they will eke out a victory, probably in a shootout.

The road trip out east will be disheartening as they lose both games, one in regulation and the other in OT, acquiring only 1 of a possible 4 points before returning to the sanctity of the American Airlines Center.

Upon returning home, a team of strengthened resolve will go red hot, picking up 14 of a possible 18 points with a record of 6-1-2 against mostly Western Division foes.  At the end of February the Stars will have 82 points and be well positioned to make a playoff run through March.

I hope you've enjoyed reading this fan post as much as I have compositing it.   If these results bear any resemblance to reality I will post another to finish out the season in March and April.

@sporkley