Dallas Stars Payroll Picture Coming Into Focus With Recent Extensions
by Brad Gardner on Apr 6, 2010 7:00 AM CDT
in Dallas Stars Analysis
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PrintSince the doldrums of last off-season, we have been trying to figure out how Joe Nieuwendyk can possibly improve this team under the budgetary constraints placed on him by Tom Hicks and HSG that prevents them from spend to anywhere near the cap.
The more we looked (like here: "Will Dallas Stars Be Able to Keep Their Young Talent?") the more the question shifted from "How can he improve it?" to "How can he even afford to keep the young RFA's the team has developed and ice a team next year?"
We now have several more pieces of the puzzle that we did not have last August when those discussions became hot and heavy:
(The important thing to remember when having a conversation about Dallas Stars payroll, is that unlike other teams' conversations, we do not care in the least about cap hits. We talk about real payroll dollars)
- Stephane Robidas contract extension in October. His cap number is $3.3 million, but his salary next season is only $3.25 million.
- Loui Eriksson extended in October. His cap number is $4.267 million, but the first year of the deal (next season) is only $3.2 million.
- Steve Ott's contract does the same thing...
Follow the jump for a detailed look at the entire budgetary picture for 2010-2011...
- Steve Ott's deal is a $2.95 million cap hit, but his first year on the deal only pays $2.1 million.
- Toby Petersen extended yesterday. His salary next year is $750k next season, then goes up to $800k the next.
- Same thing with Tom Wandell, extended last week. $700k next year, $850 the year after that.
Every single deal is back-loaded, which, let's face it, might be a bad thing for 2011-2012, but that's not our main concern at the moment. All those projections and guess we were doing were based on average value of the deals, and we were right on the money with some of those guesses. What Gm Joe has done in back-loading them, is he's given himself breathing room to come into next season with a team at least as good as the one he has now, without losing his RFA's.
Here's where they now stand for 2010-2011:
| 2009-2010 | 2010-2011 | 2011-2012 | ||||||
| FORWARDS | ||||||||
| Brad Richards " | $7,800,000 | $7,800,000 | UFA | |||||
| Mike Ribeiro " | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | |||||
| Brenden Morrow " | $4,100,000 | $4,100,000 | $4,100,000 | |||||
| Mike Modano " | $2,250,000 | UFA |
||||||
| Jere Lehtinen " | $1,500,000 | UFA | ||||||
| Tom Wandell | $560,000 | $700,000 |
$850,000 |
|||||
| Loui Eriksson " | $1,700,000 | $3,200,000 |
$4,200,000 |
|||||
| Steve Ott " | $1,500,000 | $2,100,000 | $3,300,000 | |||||
| James Neal " | $720,000 | RFA |
||||||
| Jamie Benn |
$585,000 | $635,000 | $670,000 |
|||||
| Brian Sutherby " | $812,500 | $812,500 | UFA | |||||
| Krys Barch " | $575,000 | UFA |
||||||
| Toby Petersen " | $550,000 | $750,000 | $800,000 |
|||||
| Brandon Segal |
$550,000 | $550,000 |
UFA |
|||||
| DEFENSEMEN | ||||||||
| Trevor Daley " | $2,300,000 | $2,500,000 | UFA | |||||
| Stephane Robidas " | $1,500,000 | $3,250,000 |
$3,550,000 |
|||||
| Karlis Skrastins " | $1,100,000 | $1,650,000 | UFA | |||||
| Mark Fistric " | $750,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,250,000 | |||||
| Nicklas Grossman " | $1,050,000 | RFA |
||||||
| Matt Niskanen " | $805,000 | RFA |
||||||
| Jeff Woywitka " | $600,000 | $700,000 | UFA | |||||
| Mystery D-Man/Spare Fill in |
||||||||
| GOALTENDERS | ||||||||
| Kari Lethonen |
RFA |
|||||||
| Backup |
|
|||||||
Which is to say that they have 5 defensemen, 10 forwards and 0 goaltenders signed for around $35 million dollars. (Jamie Benn has a bonus you have to throw in there too. His real payroll number is closer to $850k.) And you can count the Sean Avery money if you want ($1.9375). I've heard they do, I've heard they don't. I don't want to count it today.
I don't want anything to do with the bastard guy.
| 2009-2010 | 2010-2011 | 2011-2012 | ||||||
| FORWARDS | ||||||||
| Brad Richards " | $7,800,000 | $7,800,000 | UFA | |||||
| Mike Ribeiro " | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 | |||||
| Brenden Morrow " | $4,100,000 | $4,100,000 | $4,100,000 | |||||
| Mike Modano " | $2,250,000 | Gone? :( | ||||||
| Jere Lehtinen " | $1,500,000 | $1,500,000* | ||||||
| Tom Wandell | $560,000 | $700,000 |
$850,000 |
|||||
| Loui Eriksson " | $1,700,000 | $3,200,000 |
$4,200,000 |
|||||
| Steve Ott " | $1,500,000 | $2,100,000 | $3,300,000 | |||||
| James Neal " | $720,000 | $3,200,000* |
||||||
| Jamie Benn |
$585,000 | $635,000 | $670,000 |
|||||
| Brian Sutherby " | $812,500 | $812,500 | UFA | |||||
| Krys Barch " | $575,000 | $700,000* | ||||||
| Toby Petersen " | $550,000 | $700,000 | $850,000 |
|||||
| Brandon Segal |
$550,000 | $550,000 |
UFA |
|||||
| DEFENSEMEN | ||||||||
| Trevor Daley " | $2,300,000 | $2,500,000 | UFA | |||||
| Stephane Robidas " | $1,500,000 | $3,250,000 |
$3,550,000 |
|||||
| Karlis Skrastins " | $1,100,000 | $1,650,000 | UFA | |||||
| Mark Fistric " | $750,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,250,000 | |||||
| Nicklas Grossman " | $1,050,000 | $2,000,000* |
Increasing |
|||||
| Matt Niskanen " | $805,000 | RFA | ||||||
| Jeff Woywitka " | $600,000 | $700,000 | UFA | |||||
| Mystery D-Man/Spare Fill in |
$850,000+/- |
|||||||
| GOALTENDERS | ||||||||
| Kari Lethonen |
$3,000,000* |
|||||||
| Backup | $1,000,000* |
|
||||||
The Neal and Grossman deals, I am guessing, will be structured like the rest of Joe's deals: Increasing and/or back-loaded as they go along. This gives Hicks time to get the hell out of dodge, so to speak, and Crawford can ice an at least semi-competitive team next year in the mean time.
The bottom line on that little scenario, which is basically exactly what we have now minus Mike Modano: $46.9475 million dollars, which is pretty darned close to their stated internal budget of $45 million.
Obviously this is not ideal. To bring the same team back a third year in a row and expect anything different to happen is by definition, insanity. There could be trades. There could be surprises. We just don't know.
The point is this: That Nieuwendyk has maneuvered his way to this scenario becoming a plausible one is not entirely unimpressive. He's managing this horrible situation pretty well so far, in my opinion. Which doesn't count for anything. (Sorry Joe.)
What say you? Are you impressed? Are you surprised? Indifferent? Or are you one of these "I want this mythological, young, puck moving d-man to anchor the team or it just doesn't matter!!" kinds of people?
And in case anyone's wondering: I didn't forget about Brunnstrom. He's just not there.
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Just some thoughts
I think they try to flip Ribeiro for some help on the backend, maybe a top end guy entering the last year of his contract, or a mid-level guy to sure up the defense. That would obviously leave a whole at center with Ribeiro and Modano gone, which i think they will fill with a guy like Craig Conroy, Stephane Yelle, or Chris Higgins. Solid players with low cap numbers. I also think the number on Neal might be a little high, but definitely in that ballpark. They probably try and shop around Skrastins, maybe package him in a deal to clear up some cap. Backup goalies…take your pick. Lalime, Auld, Nittymaki, etc.
Will any of this be enough to excite the fans in Dallas? I don’t know. Obviously we’re not going to be in on any major UFA signings a la Patrick Marleau. I think it depends what kind of name you can get to sure up the Defense. Maybe a combination of that and good news on the owner situation will have us feeling this thing is going in the right direction. Either way, i don’t think any of us will be going into next fall with hopes of a long playoff run in mind. But we should at least expect to be in the damn thing.
note i found this site useful if you want to put together you’re own crazy theories. http://nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php?
The numbers fit..
But the positions don’t. I really don’t see Ribs sticking around next year. He may or may not be there for the season opener, but I don’t see Joe sitting on essentially the same team. And I don’t see Lehtinen coming back either. Sad to say, but I just don’t. I’m fairly confident that one or more young players will be moved up before they bring him back. They’re actually fairly rich in centers and need some LWs.
I’m guessing they’ll try and shop Ribs around and see what they can get in FA.
And depending on how the “tryout” goes with Larsen, I suspect he’ll be the mystery D man. Tough to know whether or not Joe just doesn’t want to diss on Niskanen or whether he really feels he’s a great young player who needs a little push…but he may stick with him for a little longer as well.
So if we assume the lineup looks like you’ve listed (minus Lehts who I think is done) would it be something like this?
Neal Richards Eriksson
Morrow Benn Segal
? Ott Barch
? Wandell Glennie or Sawada?
Daley Robidas
Grossman Fistric
Skrastins Larsen
Woywitka (healthy scratch)
Lehtonen
Climie
Is there room for Sutherby? And doesn’t Petersen deserve a shot? Can either he or Wandell play LW? They still need right-handed wingers, so I think they give Sawada a chance. I just don’t expect them to make a big move this summer without moving Ribs first. Which is very unfortunate but you have to do what’s best for the team.
Just to clarify
LW Neal – C Richards – RW Eriksson
LW Morrow – C Benn – RW Segal
LW Unknown? – C Ott – RW Barch
LW Unknown? – C Wandell – RW Glennie/Sawada?
And the more I think of it, I suspect the 4th line to be:
LW Wandell – C Petersen – RW Glenn/Sawada
Which would mean just one more LW to fill. Didn’t Fistric play wing for a while or was that just in my NHL 2010 game? :P
Interestingly
Hockeysfuture.com says that Glennie can be effective from the off-wing.
http://ww.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/scott_glennie
Take it with a grain of salt, but they have Wandell behind Glennie on their rankings.
I don’t know that I like how many of the Stars’ prospects are listed as needing to shore up their physical game…
Climie
Climie isn’t ready for the NHL game yet.
Blogging about the Texas Stars at HundredDegreeHockey.com
Glennie
I think needs some time in the AHL.
I don’t think that’s an option….but hey, I said that about Benn and I was wrong, so who knows.
Neal
Seems high to me. I am not even going to conjecture about trades or what nots, just giving my opinion on the above table. I don’t think Neal is as complete a player yet as Eriksson, so I would be hesitant to give Neal that much money. I think we should start Neal next year around $2m then bump him up to $3 and up to $4 the next. Puts him on roughly the same track as Loui just one year behind.
And ditto on Barch. Get rid of him. I think we can find someone easily to fill his shoes.
For a long time this season
I thought Neal was on a pace to put him at a $4 million dollar contract.
But his age and, as you say, incompleteness will make him a little cheaper.
I don’t know what kind of precedent there is for a 22 year old who’s scored 24 and 26 goals in each of his first two years. It sounds expensive to me, but his lack of special teams ice time (PK in comparison to Eriksson) and assist numbers (though better than last year) will hopefully make him affordable.
Still, every time he’s scored this year I keep thinking “those are expensive goals”
I am probably over-estimating on Neal, but I thought I’d rather err on the side of caution.
Agree
I thought the same thing, but I am hoping Neal would take $2 to begin with if we promise him increases for a few years.
And yeah on Crawford loving Barch. Not really sure what he sees in that guy that the rest of us don’t. Who is a scrapper in Austin that could take over that role? Not too familiar with some of the guys down there.
I am hoping Neal will take a sort of bridge deal for
Between 2 and 3 million. Then in a couple of years if he keeps it up, he gets the bigger money.
But who knows. Your agent will always push you to get as much as you can as fast as you can.
by Brad Gardner on Apr 6, 2010 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
And Barch
I just figure that Crawford likes Barch
We all know he does.
I would rather see someone come from Austin, personally.
ok if brad is gunna be coming off the books in 2 years...
we know were prolly not going to able to resign him… why dont we spend more money this year on people we supposedly “cant afford” and build a team that can compete. i understand thats one year of losing money, but the year after that 7 million will be coming off the books.
It may seem retarted to willingly spend more than you can afford. maybe im retarted
Texas Rangers- You hang 'em, we bang 'em!
You're a rangers fan
You know how Tom Hicks is.
by Brad Gardner on Apr 6, 2010 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
My Assessment...
IMO, I don’t see Ribsy, Lehts, Barch, or Niskanen being strong chances for a return. Joe knows what he has and what he needs. Granted Ribs and Lehts have the best chances of returning and I really don’t want to see either of them go, but for some reason my gut tells me Ribs is running into issues w/ the current “suits” as he did in Montreal. Crawford busted out the choke chain on him and his creativity got flushed when Tipper got canned (just look at his shoot-out attacks this season compared w/ last season)…and Lehts, he’s great and has been a corner-stone to this team, but like Modano, it’s just time. I say look for a package deal w/ Ribs and maybe Niskanen and/or Fabio for a young/mid-age D-man/men in the offseason. Also, Trevor Daley has a 2.5 cap hit?!?!?! I think I just soiled myself.
Does anyone know what the rule is on RFA's
Like Brunnstrom?
Do they have to tender him an offer? Heika says he thinks they will, and I can’t honestly imagine why unless they’re forced to, or unless they know something we don’t.
They don't have to tender an offer to RFA's
if they don’t they just go away and become UFA’s the highest bidder can sign.
More common is to sign the RFA to the min required and then work on a trade as they are usually cheaper to the team that wants to take them on than signing them as an ufa. But he is kind of expensive so I doubt they sign him unless they have a trade already worked out.
Insanity
However insane it may be to keep putting the same product back on the ice I just do not see much else for options. Most of us agree we like the mix of youth and experience and potential in the top 6 up front. And given the way Joe has been working he is keeping the bottom 6 from inside the the current group at very reasonable deals.
Neal-Richards-Eriksson
Morrow-Ribs-Ott
Benn-Wandell-Lehts
Petersen-Sutherby-Segal
Obviously there is a lot to debate in terms of line combinations but these are the players I would like to see, generally in the positions I think you will see them.
Goaltending is fairly set at this point, we know Kari is gonna be “the guy” and it will probably be a 1 or 2 yr deal @ 3million, and the other guy will be a cheap option to help carry the load.
I mean this is more of just harping on what we have been all season…the defense….
Honestly what do you do? Your big money is committed up front, Robidas is your rock and is locked up cheap. Beyond that what do we really have? Grossman and Fistric are nice but how much potential do they really have, can they solidify a top teams top 4 right now? I dont know? I think having a top end guy into the mix would fix a lot of problems at this point.
Robi-Grossman
Fistric-Daley?
Karlis-Nisky
Woywitka-AHL callup?
I still believe this current roster CAN be good, playoff good. Plus an injured Zubov this team took Detroit to 6 games in the west finals a couple seasons ago when this team was even younger. Robi is emerging as a point producing defensive rock, Daley has been showing flashes of his offensive ability, finally. Morrow and Ribs seems to have finally gotten back into their groove, giving two lines with solid scoring punch. As you can see by the goals/game increase in the last month. It is just up to Joe to manipulate the salaries and add/ remove the necessary pieces.
I agree about "playoff good"
Just as soon as they replace their head coach and possibly Huddy…
Well we all know that's not going to happen
For at least another year.
Then, if the ownership changes and money becomes available (iffy) then they’ll have another reason to try one more year with him in 2011-2012, saying “Ok, NOW we’ll see what he can do.”
Everyone just get comfortable with Marc Crawford, would by my advice.
Another year?
I say Craw is gone before the trade deadline in 2010.
Nordstrum was a rock during that wcf run.
Him and Zubi equate to a top level #1 pair. Much better than anything we have now. Add a comparable pair to the current line up and we are ready to rock and roll. All we need is $9mil or so.
This team also does not have anything like Stu Barnes win those critical def zone faceoffs and play those tough pk and other mins. But give me a top pair and I would be happy with our chances.
Don't feel bad
That you’re (perhaps) one of thousands that pronounced/spelled it “Nordstrum”
I don’t know why, but EVERYONE did that. I kept trying to convince my family but they wouldn’t listen.
It’s Norstrum!
by Brad Gardner on Apr 7, 2010 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Maybe they all just like really fancy clothing
…I mean only Dallas fans would immediately default to “Nordstrum” since it is a big time shopping town, hahahaha. Atleast nobody confused it with Nostradamus and began predicting the Stars would win the cup in 2010, heheheh.
Sorry, I'm normally careful about names
Guess I was in a hurry to go shopping or something! ;^D
Actually, I have never been in a Nordstrums
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