Hockey is still a team game: A look at the Dallas Stars' Offense
by TracyJean on Mar 5, 2010 9:47 AM CST
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Editors Note: The following is a Fanpost made by our very fine community member TracyJean that we think deserves a little time on the front page for sure. Thanks, Tracy.
A look at the Dallas Stars' offensive output
The goaltending and defense have been beat to death the last two games - really, over the course of this season, so let's take a different tact in looking at why the Stars are losing hockey games. It's time to look at the offense and their culpability in how the Stars have fared this season.
Offense wins hockey games, doesn't it? Isn't that why Marc Crawford was hired, to bring his offensive-focused system to Dallas? Your goaltender can have one of the best games of the year and still lose if the offense doesn't score any goals - after all, your goalie usually cannot help you with that apart from the odd assist (only 9 NHL goalies have ever been credited with scoring a goal). Just look at the January 10th and February 4th games in Columbus as examples. The goalie was on his game, but the offense was absent (Jan 10th) or almost completely absent (Feb 4th) and Dallas lost both games. Last year, two of Marty Turco's three shutouts turned into shootout losses (against Phoenix on Jan 10th and Los Angeles on March 26th).
So let's take a look at the offensive output for this season and see how the Dallas Stars fare when they are scoring goals versus when they are not. For the purposes of this analysis, I'm using 3 goals as the threshold, as that seems to be the number commonly thrown around as the number needed to win games. Each month will be broken down by the number of games in which Dallas scored 3 or more goals versus the games in which the team scored 2 or less.
After the jump, Tracy breaks it down month by month...
October
Dallas played fourteen games during the month of October with an overall record of 6-3-5. They scored 2 or fewer goals in three games, with losses coming in all three games (two regulation losses and one shootout loss). 3 or more goals were scored in the remaining ten games. Dallas' record in those games? 6-0-4. They got points out of all ten games, with six wins and four OT/SO losses. October seems to prove the rule that offense wins games, or at least gets you points in games.
November
There were thirteen games played in November, with Dallas going 6-5-2. The offensive output slacked off during November, with the Stars scoring 2 or fewer goals in nine of those games and 3 or more in only five games. Once again, in games where Dallas scored 3+ goals, the team earned points in all five games, with four wins and one OT/SO loss. The record in the nine games with 2 or fewer goals is a bit of an anomaly, with wins coming in two of those games (2-6-1). The Nov 6th game against Vancouver (final score 2-1) and Nov 23rd game against Carolina (final score 2-0, Marty Turco's second shutout of the season) were both goalie duels, with both goaltenders being named Stars of the Game in both games.
December
Dallas was 6-3-4 in December over thirteen games played. The offensive output went back up during December, as reflected in the record. 3+ goals were scored in nine games, with a record in those games of 6-1-2. For the first time, Dallas lost a game in regulation in which it had scored at least three goals (Dec 16th at Carolina, final score 5-3). Dallas was back to their losing ways in games during which they scored less than three goals, going 0-2-2 in four games.
January
Fifteen games were played in January, with Dallas going 6-9-0, in part due to the Stars' woeful road record - they won only one out of eight road games in January. In games where Dallas scored less than three goals, they were blanked, going 0-6-0 (including three shutouts - ouch). The record in games where Dallas scored three or more was an anomaly, with Dallas going 6-3-0. In the first of those three losses, January 12th in Philadelphia, the score was actually 6-1 until late, when Steve Ott scored two garbage goals with less than eight minutes to go in the third. In the next game in Montréal, the game was tied 3-3 until the Habs scored twice in the third. In the Vancouver game on the 21st, the game was tied 2-2 going into the third, the Canucks scored twice, and then Trevor Daley pulled Dallas within one with three seconds left in the game.
February
Due to the Olympic break, Dallas only played six games in February, with a remarkable record of 4-1-1. In all but one of those games, Dallas scored 3+ goals, going 4-0-1. In the only game in which they scored less than three goals, Dallas lost the game.
March
Not much to be said about March. One goal in each of the last two games, losses in both games.
The 2009-2010 season so far
|
Month |
Games Played |
<3 goals |
Record |
3+ goals |
Record |
|
October |
14 |
3 |
0-3-1 |
10 |
6-0-4 |
|
November |
13 |
9 |
2-6-1 |
4 |
3-0-1 |
|
December |
13 |
4 |
0-2-2 |
9 |
6-1-2 |
|
January |
15 |
6 |
0-6-0 |
9 |
6-3-0 |
|
February |
6 |
1 |
0-1-0 |
5 |
4-0-1 |
|
March |
2 |
2 |
0-2-0 |
0 |
0-0-0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Totals |
63 |
25 |
2-19-4 |
38 |
26-4-8 |
Dallas has played 63 games as of last night, with a record of 28-23-12. Fewer than three goals have been scored in 25 of those games, with a record in those games of 2-19-4. That's 8 out of a possible 50 points in those games (.160 points percentage). In the 38 games where 3+ goals have been scored, Dallas' record is 26-4-8, for 60 points (out of 76 possible; .789 points percentage).
There are other ways to look at the data. How many of those games where Dallas scored less than three goals were one-goal games? Six - four of which were OT/SO losses and two of which were regulation losses. One more save in the OT losses and they are wins. One more save in the regulation loss and it goes to overtime; two more and it's a win. So yes, goal tending (and defense, by extension) is part of the problem. They are not the only problem, however. All of the pieces have to come together, and for the Dallas Stars, they are not right now.
This is a user-created FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Defending Big D. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable hockey and Dallas Stars fans.
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Great post!
Nothing else to really add.. very well done!
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Nice post!
BUT… I’m a bit underwhelmed by your findings. Any team that has an NHL goalie capable of posting a GAA of under 3.00 should have similar splits. Our GFA (Goals for Average) is 2.75 on the year, which might sound abysmal, but its not… its good for 13th in the league. Our defense on the other hand, is sitting at 3.00 for the year. That’s good enough for 7th worst in the league. In fact, only Edmonton, Toronto, Atlanta, Columbus, Carolina and the Islanders give up more goals than us.
To further emphasize my point, allow me to bring up some GFA/GAA stats for some teams in recent memory.
09/10 Stars: 2.75/3.00 (11th place in the West)
08/09 Stars: 2.73/3.06 (did not qualify)
07/08 Stars: 2.89/2.49 (Western Conference Finalists)
06/07 Stars: 2.65/2.35 (Most recent 100-point season)
09/10 PHO: 2.54/2.46 (its not the offense, its the defense)
In order for the Stars to have a positive differential between GFA and GAA, we would need this season’s Capitals, Sharks, Canucks, Blackhawks or Penguins offensive firepower. I don’t think its fair to say the offense has not been pulling its weight. Which, by the way, is not to say that the forwards aren’t to blame on the defensive side of the rink.
Let's look at it this way
If we expect our goaltender to be able to steal games for us when the offense or defense is having an off night, then why can’t we expect the offense to pick up the slack when the opposite is true? Yet everyone wants to blame goaltending (mainly) and defense (secondarily) for all this teams problems without looking at the other side of the equation.
Its Easier to...
play a consistent offense when playing with a consistent defense. Why? When the D is sputtering, all the forwards are on the heels. There is no aggression. No attack mode. Just an overall panic, and lack of confidence for everyone on the ice. Before the Oly break, Turco started playing well, and the team became a well oiled machine in a matter of days. They look far from that now, and a lot of that stems from the 11 goals they’ve given up in the past two games, not the 2 goals they’ve scored.
In hockey, its fair to assume, if you give up two goals, you should have a decent shot at winning the game, just as if you scored three goals, you have a decent shot at winning the game. Your post solidifies the latter. The former? The Stars are 16-2-0 when the defense gives up two or less goals. That is to say, the offense has let down the defense twice. Now in games where the Stars have given up 3 goals they are 10-4-4. Which means when paired with an average to stellar defense, the Stars are 26-6-4. All other games, the Stars are 2-17-8 in which 4+ goals are scored against them. Which as I take it, is 12 stolen points.
Now call me old-fashioned, but I’ve never heard a hockey argument, in which a team was criticized for not scoring 5+ goals often enough.
S.S.D.D.
Did I say anywhere that I thought the Stars should be scoring 5+ goals a game?
Nope. The point is that all the problems are not goaltending/defense related, which is what seems to get lost in all the arguments about whether Marty Turco should have been traded or we need to magically find a #1 D-man growing on a tree somewhere.
The problems with defense/goaltending would be another post (maybe when I have more time). The focus of this one is the offense. Whether the D is playing good or bad has no effect, for example, on James Neal whiffing on what should be an easy tap-in goal (as he has done more than once).
Sorry if I wasn't clear enough...
I never said 5+ goals a game, and neither did you. You stated that:
If we expect our goaltender to be able to steal games for us when the offense or defense is having an off night, then why can’t we expect the offense to pick up the slack when the opposite is true?
An average defensive team will give up somewhere around 2-3 goals a night (statistically, the median in the NHL is 2.75). The Stars are 26-6-4 (.778) in games where they give up 3 or less goals. That left 2-17-8 (.222) for the games that the defense was having an off night (4 or more goals). In order for the Stars to win such games, they needed to score 5+ goals. You implied with your comment, that the Stars should score 5+ goals more often which would be necessary to pick up the slack for the defense.
The Sharks are 1-9-3 (.192) in games where they give up 4 or more to the other side. The Stars do a better job points percentage wise than the West’s leading team when giving up 4 or more goals. This, more than anything, says that the Stars need to stop allowing opponents 4 or more goals.
S.S.D.D.
I agree with .KARMA...
that using goals for and against to tease apart forward performance versus blueliner performance is only useful up to a point. If Zubov is back there foiling the opp’s offense and dishing it up to the forwards, then the forwards will be more productive. If a player with significantly less talent than Zubov is consistently making mistakes both in defending the net and moving the puck up ice then the forwards will be less productive. A hockey team is a unit and this kind of analysis requires a bit more sophistication than what is provided here.
I think everyone knows
That it’s not a stretch to say that scoring goals wins hockey games.
The point is that even when they get shutout, the fanbase seems to rail against the goaltender for some reason.
Part of the reason for the offensive woes are three fold
First, young inconsistent wingers. Benn, Neal and even Eriksson can disappear for games at a time. Morrow being a shell of himself doesn’t help either.
Second, the bottom two lines don’t score. At all. A 3rd line of checkers who contributed every once in a while would be positive but its practically guaranteed our 4th line will not pot a goal.
Third, this defense does not contribute to the offense. Robidas has 3 points in 24 games in 2010. He’s the only one that appears to have some skill too. I haven’t looked up the stats but I’d bet the Stars are bottom three in the league in defenseman scoring.
It’s more than just the defense. Barch, Peterson, Segal, Brunnstrom, Lehtinen, all need to improve or go.
That could be a whole 'nother post by itself as well
Neal seems to have been snake-bit ever since his suspension. Benn and Eriksson have been streaky players more often than not this season. Morrow is a shell of his former self when he’s playing for the team what signs his paychecks. He’s just fine when he’s playing for the national team (which pisses me off….)
Modano is probably most of our offense on the bottom two lines, and when you’re depending on someone knocking on the door of 40 to be your offense, you’ve got a problem.
Where is the Robi who was lighting up the scoreboard (at least for him) back in 2009? I want him back.
Segal – three games (and one of which he was scratched in) is not really enough to judge him
Lehtinen – I don’t know. He’s a shell of his former self as well, probably because of all of the injuries. Not the way I’d like to see him go out, but it is what it is.
Brunnstrom – Looked so promising last season. Now, I think we just need to cut him loose. Maybe he’ll be able to find his game better under another system.
Barch – Nothing but an enforcer and not much of one at that (come on, when Jamie Benn looks better in a fight than you….)
Peterson – when he’s on, he’s on. But he’s another one who can disappear for long stretches at a time.
The reason I don't like Robidas
is I think this is closer to the real one rather than the guy who was on a unbelievable hot streak earlier this year. I think he’s a 20ish some odd point defenseman rather than a 30+ or the 40+ guy he was on pace for. He’s not all that great defensively and he’s not an offensive dynamo so paying him 3.3 million to put up 20 some odd points makes no sense to me. That’s money that can be better spent elsewhere. Though to be fair I can say that about the whole d-core with the exception of Fistric who does earn his salary.
I was just thinking about this very topic!
I realize that our terible break outs have a big impact on the forwards. But still I can’t help noticing how often we seem to not be able to finish.
Just looking at numbers … we have BY FAR the lowest paid D in the nhl. Though some of that is youth, it also indicates our talent level is lower than most. You could argue that having the 27th rated GAA with the lowest paid blue line indicates they are maybe even over achieving.
OTOH, our forwards as a group are basically in a tie for 5th in nhl salary … even with a lot of cheap youth. But our GFA is only 13th in the league. You could definitely argue they are under achieving.
I realize it is more complex than that … but bottom line the team as a whole is not getting it done.
I would definitely take some depth in the 3rd and 4th but...
I’m generally quite pleased with the forwards put on the ice. I think this has the potential to be a great group with little tweaking. The two biggest problems they have are legacy contracts (Modano, Lehtinen) and youth. Both of these things will work themselves out in time. Richards and Erikkson are elite forwards. Its likely that Neal and Benn will work out as top six forwards, even if their production only improves marginally. Guys like Morrow and Ribeiro can perform if put in the right situations. Would you really take Buffalo’s top six as opposed to ours?
Just looking at our offense and comparing to other successful teams in the league should lead one to believe, that while certainly not perfect, this is a group that can win.
Comparing our d-corp especially and goaltending to some extent, although I think Turco is better than quite a few here give him credit for, and the same certainly cannot be said. The complete lack of a top-pair d-man is glaring. And there are more than a couple that I’d question even for depth positions.
Given this, it will take alot more than a post simply saying that our goals for statistic isn’t good enough for me to conclude that our forwards are the problem, or even part of it. Forwards are not the only ones who contribute positively or negatively to offensive production. As I said previously, the analysis on offer simply does not offer enough to make the author’s point.
I did not say that the forwards were the only problem or are even the majority of the problem
You’ve completely missed the point. But they are part of the problem, especially since Crawford’s system is supposed to be so “offensive minded”. I’m just tired of everyone pointing to goaltending, and to a lesser extent, defense, as the problem with this team. It’s a combination of things.
In fact, the word "forwards" is not mentioned once in the article
Defense plays a part in scoring, too.
hmm...
I do not mean to get into a shouting match, and I hope this isn’t getting more confrontational than the admins are comfortable with, but I’ll try to respond in a manner that is hopefully reasonable and adds to the discussion.
The premise of your article is that its not simply the defense and the goaltending that are hurting this team. Whether or not you actually mention “forwards”, this seems to imply that the forwards are at least to a degree, at fault.
If this isn’t the intention and rather you meant that if the d-corp was contributing more to offense then we would win more games then I agree, although that could’ve been more explicit.
If the point is to say that if we had more offense then we would win more games, then that is a truism and doesn’t tell us anything about the performances of any individual or specific group of players that would help make good decisions in the future for the club.
If, on the other hand, the point is to argue that we need better forwards to win games, then I disagree.
Of course its true that its a combination of things that have lead the Stars to a bad showing this season. However, its my belief, that is this team were to acquire a solid top-2 defensive pair, a proposition that would hardly put us close to the cap, and got reasonably consistent performances out of either Turco or Lehtonen, then this team would be a cup contender. I agree that its not simply goaltending that got us here, but most of the problems would look quite small if our defense were up to par.
The title of the article has to do with "offense"
That includes everyone who is supposed to contribute to the offense. I’m not getting into a shouting match, but nor to I appreciate having words put into my mouth.
And I am not saying that defense and goaltending are not part of the problem. But too many people think they are the only problem….they’re not.
TracyJean may not have said "forwards"
but I did. Make no mistake, I love those guys and think they are very talented and will only get better. But as a group they are paid $34.5 mil, a virtual tie for 5th in the NHL, about $800k less than Pitts and equal to Chicago. Is anyone saying we are getting the same performance from our group as those two? We will have about $5mil in increases to forwards next year, so we could conceivably be approaching top 3 in forward pay. I know Lehts and Mo will probably come off, but any way you look at it we will pay more to forwards next year unless some pretty big moves are made.
How many times this year have people moaned that the Stars make the opposing goalie the #1 star? How many break aways or odd man rushes don’t get finished? How many times has the power play fizzled at critical points (4 of the 5 are usually forwards) Heck, how many shootouts have our forwards not scored on! Bottom line, we pay top 5 salary and are ranked 13th in GFA.
I realize that the blue line plays a role in this. The breakouts to set the offense up have been horrid, shots from the point to generate rebounds or tips often don’t get through, or miss the net by a wide margin. I do honestly believe we are a top D pair away from competing for the cup. And the really frustrating thing, those players are within our reach if we could spend to the cap.
I guess I am just tired of hearing how inconsistent the D is and that Marty in particular is not living up to his salary. In my opinion it has always been the TEAM, and the forwards share in the inconsistent play and are open to the charge that they are not living up to what they are paid.
Fantastic article Tracy.
Great to see some fresh perspective. I appreciate the effort .
I am still "FRISKY FOR NISKY"
I want to throw a couple of numbers out there for you to ponder
Goalie #1 = GAA 2.70, SV% .906
Goalie #2 = GAA 2.75, SV% .910
These are the stats through the last game played for both goalies’ teams. These goalies look about the same, right? One has a slightly higher GAA, one has a slightly higher saves %. Goalie #1 is Marc-Andre Fleury. Goalie #2 is Marty Turco. Yet, Marc-Andre Fleury has won 29 games, while Marty has won only 19. Why? Because his team is scoring more goals than he is giving up. Dallas is not doing the same.
Thank you to the person who pointed me to Fleury’s stats a few weeks ago in another thread. It was quite the eye-opener.
I agree.
If we had crosby and malkin we could make due with poor defense.
Not necessarily Crosby and Malkin
But if our offense would be more consistent…. I don’t know if you’ve seen at the AAC about our “young guns shooting first and asking questions later” (Richards, Eriksson, Neal). Richards is pretty steady about putting up points most of the time, at least assists; but Eriksson and Neal have been known to disappear for stretches of time. Unless either one of them goes on an absolute tear the remaining 18 games, neither one of them is going to match Loui’s 36 goals from last season. Robidas was absolutely spectacular in 2009. He’s all but disappeared in 2010 (how is that for a defenseman who has been contributing to offense?). Morrow – even pre-Olympics, he was a shadow if himself. I might blame coming back from the injury if he hadn’t shown during the Olympics that he still has the fire.
And I would love to have better defense. If only to save my voice from yelling at them during games :) But when I know we have talent in a certain area (offense) and I don’t see it being used to its full potential, especially when we have a coach who is supposed to be teaching an “offensive system”, we’ve got problems and it is more than just goaltending and defense, as much as people would like to scream that it is.
The knock...
On Turco… isn’t that he doesn’t have what it takes to be an elite goaltender (and those are nowhere close to being elite goaltending stats), it’s that he is not consistent.
As I said earlier, the Stars can almost be counted on to win when giving up three or less goals, but its the 27 games where we’ve given up 4 or more that have killed us.
S.S.D.D.
Neither of them are, but Marc-Andre Fleury was supposedly elite enough to be named to the Olympic team
Why? Probably because he plays for Pittsburgh. It’s amazing what playing for a team like them can do for your reputation. You look at his win-loss record and it looks spectacular. Wow, he’s really good. Then you look closer at his stats and you find it is more his team than him. I wonder what his defense is like if he’s giving up almost 3 a game? I know what the offense is like in Pittsburgh.
Just as good goaltending can cover when the offense and/or defense is having an off night, the reverse is also true. Unfortunately, for Dallas, everything seems to be bad at once (the last two games) and it is rare that the offense steps up when other areas are lacking.
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